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February 16th-17th Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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Snow continues. I'm over 5 inches. Just got done brooming the driveway yet again. Had to shovel it as well. Its so deep I can't tell where the front porch ends and the walk begins, and sure enough I tripped and went headlong. Talk about a full face shot of snow lmao, right into one of the 3 foot high piles! All-time LMAO geeze. I think I got my damn snow fix though. Its a damn good thing its 2 in the morning and everyone's fast asleep - I would have NEVER lived that one down

NWS's faceplant will be remembered long after yours.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1019 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015

.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

STILL NO CHANGES TO WARNINGS AND ADVYS AT THIS TIME.

(snip)

ITS TOO SOON TO CALL THIS THING OFF. HV TRIMMED PCPN TTLS BY ABT

AN INCH DUE TO THE CURRENT LULL. SUBSTANTIVELY...THAT WONT CHG

MUCH. THE HIEST TTLS WL BE IN SRN MD...LOWEST NUMBERS WL BE IN THE

NWRN CORNER.

PREV DISCUSSION... 

(snip)

WITH SUCH A COLD AIRMASS...ALSO

EXPECTING HIGHER SNOW RATIOS...WHICH WILL BECOME A BIG PLAYER IN

THE DETERMINATION OF SNOW TOTALS. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED UPON A

15:1 RATIO...BUT VERY WELL COULD SEE EVEN UP TO 20:1 ALONG THE

MASON-DIXON LINE. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MD...COULD SEE

SLIGHTLY LOWER RATIOS...MAYBE ONLY 12:1. THE NEXT FACTOR TO LOOK

AT IS THE TOTAL QPF.

(snip)

CHOSE A BLEND OF

THE WPC...GFS AND ECMWF TOTALS. USING A 15:1 RATIO...THIS KEEP 7

INCHES AND MORE SOUTH OF THE DC TO ELKINS LINE...WITH BETWEEN 10

INCHES AND A FOOT EVEN ACROSS HIGHLAND COUNTY AND ST MARYS COUNTY.

TO THE NORTH...AROUND 6 INCHES IN THE BALTIMORE METRO...AND 4-5

INCHES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. IF THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RATIOS

DO COME TO FRUITION TO THE NORTH...COULD SEE HIGHER

AMTS...POSSIBLY ELEVATING THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING. WILL LET

SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MONITOR THE TREND AND MAKE THAT DETERMINATION.

 

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It's absolutely gorgeous out but I am a little disappointed. I measured 3.4 inches at midnight last night and went to bed expecting a decent chance to double that. Just took my final measurement of 4.2inches. So i didn't even pick up an inch from 12 to 6. Or maybe some compaction overnight? Regardless my office is closed today so it's a work from home day. I need around 9 more inches to reach climo. Maybe that happens over the next couple of weeks. Enjoy the snow everyone!!!!

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Ended up with 8.3" down here in Spotsylvania.....LE is 0.69" for a SLR of about 12:1....a little drier than and lower SLR that I though, but an awesome storm altogether.

For the season we are up to 9.5".........

Please call in your report to NWS. That would be a helpful snow amount. Thanks.

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Sorry. I thought you'd get another 0.15" liquid and better ratios.

No worries. I knew it was gonna be low when I only measured 2" at 130am. Radar didn't look great at that hour. Oh well. Not enough to keep me home so need to get ready for work.

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