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February 16th - February 17th Snow/Ice Storm OBS


superjames1992

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Therein lies the problem. This is a super cold and dry airmass, but its not optimally placed for entrenched cold air damming. This is not classical CAD, but rather in-situ CAD which can still give you a huge ice storm, but you need some other factors to go your way.

 

One of those factors is the need to wetbulb quickly to allow the in-situ ridge to intensify. If the precipitation can move in quickly, before the surface low approaches, it can actually intensify at the surface as the temperatures wetbulb. The effect of this is to reduce the impact of the inverted trough (currently located on the west side of the Apps.) to induce southeasterly flow which brings WAA.

 

The reason why folks in GA are colder than forecasted by the NAM and HRRR is primarily because both models were too slow with the progression of precipitation. They wetbulbed before they had a chance to warm up by solar insolation and now those cold temperatures are producing a finger of surface ridging that is locking the cold air in place. We need that further east into SC and NC too. Precipitation rates, especially early on will be very important for the maintenance of this cold air and whether or not it will have some staying power as the event ramps up!

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Yea, I'm thinking we might finally have a storm busting on the cold side.  I think I'm about to wetbulb down to at least 28 or 29 and no short range model had me going below 31... and actually no shortrange model had me going below freezing until around 6 oclock.

 

Also, No model had precip starting before about 3pm here and it has already started.  The radar looks absolutely awesome for my area right now....

My biggest concern here is if precip stays steady where i'm at. there could be a break for a few hours which could allow temps to rise. But for now, my temp is hovering around 32.4 (it did drop to 31.8 a few times)  with a dp of 28 so i have a wetbulb of around 30..maybe 31. There appears to be a light glaze starting about 10 feet off the ground

 

 I'm not sure if i stay this low with the light precip the rest of the afternoon..in fact i see it probably going back up to 33 or 34.  Even if i don't get below freezing for long or I only manage to get this low and no further,  i will still consider this one of the more impressive temperature busts by the nam..especially in such a short time. . The nam says I should be 43 heading for a high of 45.   As I said yesterday timing of precip would be crucial in determining temps and I thought all the models were out to lunch if the precip arrived this early.

 

 

Areas around Gainesville and NE could be looking at more significant icing than we thought.  Temps aren't going to rise much if at all this afternoon, we just need to get more precip. in here and see what happens.  Looks like areas just to the south of Gainesville around Buford, Dacula, and Winder could wet bulb down to about 29 or 30 with steadier precip.  We're still at 33 here, with light rain.

 

- Buck

Most likely but then again I've thought for some time now that around gainesville eastward and north of 85 was going to get significant icing. My "call" was for 32.5 here for a low and that's what I reached already.

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