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The Valentine's Day Massacre Obs--A snow job or does it only blow?


moneypitmike

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Most are 7-8am.

Don't get me wrong...I'm not saying modeled QPF was right. The euro was definitely low with that 0.50" east of BOS, but IMO the runs getting 0.75" to BOS weren't that far off. I think it was the 00z RGEM that really started ramping it up for E MA last night. It had a 3hr period where it crushed Cape Ann with 0.50"+.

 

 

Yeah I wasn't thinking we'd have widespread 1" QPF...but even the RGEM had the precip mostly offshore...but you are right that 00z run started to show hints with that QPF bomb on Cape Ann.

 

No models did well with this event. It was a pretty good bust by all of them. GFS did ok in eastern areas showing the good QPF on Sunday morning...but it was too bullish overnight giving 2-4 tenths on some of those runs that gave 1"+..and of course it was a disaster west of ORH. I'll say the RAP model in close range was pretty good though. It had the good lift this morning over E MA pretty consistently.

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Oh my!  I just about fell outta my chair laughing when I read these Long Term headlines from KBOX...

 

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
- CONTINUED BITTERLY COLD
- NO BREAK IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
- NEXT CHANCE OF WARMTH: SOMETIME SPRING INTO SUMMER
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Yeah I wasn't thinking we'd have widespread 1" QPF...but even the RGEM had the precip mostly offshore...but you are right that 00z run started to show hints with that QPF bomb on Cape Ann.

 

No models did well with this event. It was a pretty good bust by all of them. GFS did ok in eastern areas showing the good QPF on Sunday morning...but it was too bullish overnight giving 2-4 tenths on some of those runs that gave 1"+..and of course it was a disaster west of ORH. I'll say the RAP model in close range was pretty good though. It had the good lift this morning over E MA pretty consistently.

And then there was how models handled Portland NE to Machias/Eastport

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Oh my!  I just about fell outta my chair laughing when I read these Long Term headlines from KBOX...

 

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW

- CONTINUED BITTERLY COLD

- NO BREAK IN THE WEATHER PATTERN

- NEXT CHANCE OF WARMTH: SOMETIME SPRING INTO SUMMER

 

Kind of lol-worthy, and nice to know that even the professionals can have a laugh.

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It had some good runs too.

I've taken to ignoring the 32km NAM and gone with the HiRes 12km & 4km ones.  But I'm not one to care too much or "keep score" so to speak.

 

All I know is I got about 18" out there and I don't think any model had that much.  Winds are ramping up here now and ground blizzards have commenced.  May be able to squeeze out another 1-2".

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