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The Valentine's Day Massacre Obs--A snow job or does it only blow?


moneypitmike

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Yukon C, really only 7" from both parts? I had 5" last night

11" total.

Temps barely moving. 11.4F

I only had 2.5...maybe 3" from round 1 last night. I'm literally on the Petersham line, so just far enough west to miss out on some of the meat of the banding. What part of Hubbardston do you live in ( north, south, etc)?
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They are just jealous of his superior amateur met skills. He nails em' a lot more than he misses, he probably has drifts half way up his house right now.

Nailing events is one thing. But he came across like the science was settled. That's not science. That's pedantic scientism. And that's what a lot take issue with.

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Harv backed from over 1', to 8-12, as I did.

Yup, he did

 

When BOX AFD comes out and says

 

15/00Z SOUNDINGS ARE IMPRESSIVE. AS FAR WEST AS PITTSBURGH AND

CINCINNATI...NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER.

ALSO SEEING SIGNS OF A TROPOPAUSE FOLD...WITH THE BASE OF THE

TROPOPAUSE AS LOW AS 700 MB OR SO. WE HAVE CONCERNS THE OFFSHORE

STORM WILL INTENSIFY EVEN MORE EXPLOSIVELY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT

LATER TODAY.

LATEST RUNS OF THE HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE TRYING TO BEAR THIS OUT.

SOME...LIKE THE HRRR AND REGIONAL CANADIAN...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE

BANDING SIGNATURE. AT THIS POINT...WE CONTINUE TO HAVE LITTLE

CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS BAND WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF

 

when I saw that I realized we were in NOW Cast mode, if there ever was one

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Aint that the truth. :lol:

 

 

Strengthening mid-levels rarely ever fail to deliver.

 

 

If you think about it though, what do models do best? They do best with placement of upper level features (and filters down to mid-levels)...what they the worst at? Probably surface features with an emphasis on QPF and low level temperature boundaries/advection.

 

So when you have the rare times where the two are at great odds with eachother...whcih are you more likely to go with? The variable the models do best at or the variable they perform the worst at?

 

What bothers me is that they had the inflow, strong convergence etc and strengthening mid levels etc..but just extremely poor on the QPF output given those features. I mean the waters east of BOS have plenty of juice so they should see that. The RGEM was dangerously close though so that was sort of a red flag. RPM too. Part of this was the extreme low level forcing. The low levels below 900 started really ramping up from the east bringing in the high octane. There is the instability. But, aside from the GFS which did blink, they shat the bed with depicting that too. I wonder if it also boils down to this being extremely anomalous and models will just do weird stuff. Over emphasis on WAA stuff amid an extremely cold mid level low, while neglecting the forcing away from the 850 LLJ in the Gulf of Maine.

 

The GFS did bad though further west, so busts all around. NYC winds aren't happening either.

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Has Harv mastered every event?  Certainly one of the best here.  He mastered in 1978.  He's just the Man.  

 

Hoping to get my 12" for my 4th Foot storm in 3 weeks.  Boston has a chance at 4 15" storms in 3 weeks.  

 

They have never EVER had 4 12" Storms in a Season.  Let alone 3 in 4 Months.  

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What bothers me is that they had the inflow, strong convergence etc and strengthening mid levels etc..but just extremely poor on the QPF output given those features. I mean the waters east of BOS have plenty of juice so they should see that. The RGEM was dangerously close though so that was sort of a red flag. RPM too. Part of this was the extreme low level forcing. The low levels below 900 started really ramping up from the east bringing in the high octane. There is the instability. But, aside from the GFS which did blink, they shat the bed with depicting that too. I wonder if it also boils down to this being extremely anomalous and models will just do weird stuff. Over emphasis on WAA stuff amid an extremely cold mid level low, while neglecting the forcing away from the 850 LLJ in the Gulf of Maine.

 

The GFS did bad though further west, so busts all around. NYC winds aren't happening either.

 

 

Yeah I think focusing all on the low level stuff seems one theory...and probably the best one. The extreme low heights of the ULL perhaps were fooling the models into thinking the moisture wouldn't advect westward up that slope? I dunno...you think they should handle that fine though. But maybe they were just trying to squeeze out all the moisture before it had a chance to advect west...printing out QPF blobs over Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine

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All about the bass.

OMG, First time I heard this was at a Tiki Bar Karaoke few weeks back...Nothing like watching 70-80yr olds bustin moves. P$ssin my pants laughin. I laid-out a twerk or two myself and the ladies were swooning at my feet

 

0.00 accumulation here!

Glad I stuck with 12+ ORH east.

Any word on the highest gusts so far? 

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Yeah I think focusing all on the low level stuff seems one theory...and probably the best one. The extreme low heights of the ULL perhaps were fooling the models into thinking the moisture wouldn't advect westward up that slope? I dunno...you think they should handle that fine though. But maybe they were just trying to squeeze out all the moisture before it had a chance to advect west...printing out QPF blobs over Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine

 

It was freaking saturated right past 500mb too...lol. So weird. I wish I thought about it more..but wasn't sure if models saw something by actually lowering QPF when the event nears. Well good lesson here, just glad I didn't buy the .5" on the EC. Yikes.

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I'm looking at what's out there compared with last night and making an educated guess of about 12 new. Would bring us into the 16 + range. But with so much on the ground and ripping wind hard to tell. What did you get on winter hill, ORH weather?

 

I think thats an over estimate, drifting up where you are?...it looks impressive, but its closer to 10-11" total. Unless maybe you actually got more there.

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Yeah I think focusing all on the low level stuff seems one theory...and probably the best one. The extreme low heights of the ULL perhaps were fooling the models into thinking the moisture wouldn't advect westward up that slope? I dunno...you think they should handle that fine though. But maybe they were just trying to squeeze out all the moisture before it had a chance to advect west...printing out QPF blobs over Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine

I learned a valuable lesson in this event.

 

When there exists a discontinuity btwn mid levels and QPF, go mid levels.

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You have been an absolute idiot on more than one occasion of late.

Including that absolutely moronic FB status the other night that you eventually deleted.

 

I understand you are starting to make a name for yourself, but stop acting like you're entitled to treating people however you see fit.....that all catches up to you sooner or later.

Wow Ray I am impressed, Karma is a mf er. Yea man we joke but Scotts good peeps and probably one of the best non pros I know and I am sure he is absolutely loving this positive bust. Oh how I pray 3 stations come in with confirmed blizzard, hes going to buy me a new Davis if that happens

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