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The Valentine's Day Massacre Obs--A snow job or does it only blow?


moneypitmike

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Hallelujah! Went to bed thinking things looked great on vapor, wake up to the heaviest snow I have ever seen! Absolutely crushing perfect dendrites at a breakneck pace. A foot will be a lark I think. Keep this band going for a few hours and it's 15-20"! Holy s***! I gotta get out in this. Interestingly, still not a breath of wind it seems. Wow! Enjoy this, guys! Stuff of legend!

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I wonder why though? I don't get it.

 

 

I've seen it happen before...it is probably because the WAA wasn't that intense and there was another area of it way out to the east? But we've seen models screw up mid-level dynamical QPF before...kind of like when they try and focus all the QPF with the low level forcing sometimes in certain coastals and MPM is crying that the the models are spitting out 0.4" for him...meanwhile 16" later...

 

Models perhaps were focusing the QPF on the low level forcing more offshore and didn't spit it out under the mid-level stuff. I wish they performed better on that stuff...but it's a good lesson in mid-level dynamical meteorology. Hard to poo-poo rapidly deepening ML centers over ACK/MVY when you are in E SNE.

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The 09z-15z QPF outputs never made much sense to me as most guidance was slapping saturated ML layer over E SNE with a rapdily deepening H7 low over the islands and developing some good inflow...it didn't make sense when they were spitting out 0.10-0.20 from that stuff. Those few runs of the GFS made the most sense when they were closer to 0.50" for that period.

QPF has to be underreported at the TAN ASOS right now. Right at 0.5".  With over 12", do the math on ratios.

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QPF has to be underreported at the TAN ASOS right now. Right at 0.5".  With over 12", do the math on ratios.

 

ASOS usually under-reports in snow...esp heavy snow.

 

We'll get a better idea with cocorahs reports what the ratios are. They are def good ratios but probably not 20-25 to 1.

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