Mallow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Anyone wanna tell me what's up with this band?http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php The mesoscale models keep initializing with it, including the HRRR, and then killing it off within an hour or two. Instead, it has kept on chugging along, and in fact in the latest frames it's ostensibly expanding. With the lower half of the troposphere over the region in the dendritic growth range, if that band survives to Central PA, couldn't that be a potentially narrow band of decent (3-6") accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I've been watching it too Mallow, nothing really to tear it apart either. Would be a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Anyone wanna tell me what's up with this band? http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php The mesoscale models keep initializing with it, including the HRRR, and then killing it off within an hour or two. Instead, it has kept on chugging along, and in fact in the latest frames it's ostensibly expanding. With the lower half of the troposphere over the region in the dendritic growth range, if that band survives to Central PA, couldn't that be a potentially narrow band of decent (3-6") accumulations? There was quite the discussion in the Mid Atlantic obs thread about the HRRR today. A met who I think works with NCEP (WPC?) said they physics used to build the HRRR isn't very effective in really cold storms. If I can find the exact post I will link it back here, but I would argue at this point the HRRR precip output should not be trusted. Even the Canada Dry model is not handling this well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Is there any update from Horst? Has he put out a final forecast? If so, can someone post a link? Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Light snow now reported in SW Adams County and Westminster, MD...here it comes folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Is there any update from Horst? Has he put out a final forecast? If so, can someone post a link? Thx. Good site to book mark: http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/SWD-latest.html Key thing is your dewpoint folks. If you have a home weather station, you need it at or above zero degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Anyone have input on the Wednesday squalls? This one looks like a miss up here so focusing in on the next possible event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Good site to book mark: http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/SWD-latest.html Key thing is your dewpoint folks. If you have a home weather station, you need it at or above zero degrees. Thanks, Joe. My current ob is 14/-2, so hopefully not too much lost at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 PAWatch, is that image a simulated radar from something? It definitely is not matching current conditions in Baltimore / DC Metro. Joe good call! It's UTC time which would make it what 4 hours ahead of our eastern standard time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Good site to book mark: http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/SWD-latest.html Key thing is your dewpoint folks. If you have a home weather station, you need it at or above zero degrees. Good call hit 12/0 when snow started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Joe good call! It's UTC time which would make it what 4 hours ahead of our eastern standard time? When you fall back, UTC is +5. When you spring forward, UTC is +4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Light snow Impressive, given the modest radar returns. Good luck down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Oh jeeze, that one. It's a known bug in Arcgis 10.x Only two things that worked for me were : 1.) Uninstall Avast and install AVG anti-virus (if you have Avast) 2.) Reinstall ArcGIS 10.x and Right click -> Run As Administrator. Lol just what I wanted to hear, I'm glad I completed the coursework for my graduate certificate program in GIS before this happened. Yea that's what I gathered from trying to troubleshoot it and trying to find solutions. I've screwed around with Internet Explorer settings to no avail. Funny you mentioned Avast...cuz that's one of the programs I downloaded along with Malwarebytes to clean my laptop up and I never had a single problem til after I did that. I saw something about Avast causing the problem and already uninstalled both and that didn't do anything. Think I'm going to try the one method that I saw ESRI offered (replacing the MdDlgContent and MdDlgHelp files) before attempting to do a complete reinstall. This should be at 5:00pm http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html 1700 utc is actually Noon eastern time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 My DP is -4. Ha. Edit: 4, not 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Waiting for snow to commence here, it's pretty much on the doorstep. I downloaded the mPING app so I will be giving it a whirl when it does start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Dew point at Westminster Airport (KDMW) rose from -6 at 5:15 to +7 at 5:55 pm. A 13 degree difference in 40 min!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Just like that heavy coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Waiting for snow to commence here, it's pretty much on the doorstep. I downloaded the mPING app so I will be giving it a whirl when it does start. Looks like slightly better returns associated (maybe?) with that band Mallow mentioned are pushing into western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 No snow here yet. Dropped down to -11 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Joe & Mag thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 11F and a couple flurries starting to fall..shouldn't be much wasted of what's going to fall here. Precip was indicated overhead with just the latest scan. The small yellow cross just southwest of Bellwood is my exact location (radar beam height is 1722ft over my head). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 There is an increase in deeper returns across southern Franklin and Adams County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Few flakes falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looking at the radar movement, I'm wondering if the northern edge doesn't make it north of US-22/I-78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Commence very light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Snowing in shippensburg....coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looking at the radar movement, I'm wondering if the northern edge doesn't make it north of US-22/I-78. Yes it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 SN-, SNB19:27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Fine light snow falling. Temp is 9.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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