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Upstate NY/North Country and Canadian/VT Borders Mid Feb. 2015 through end of Winter


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never got here to me, lol, maybe you cause your a bit to my N&E so you may be experiencing something right now as we're pretty much clear here and hope to stay this way as I'm looking for some records around here but with these pesky Lake clouds we'll stay in the single digits above I think instead of teens below if it were to stay clear, but I doubt it!!  

 

Central Park, Trenton as well as Philly all have a chances at setting all time low records established in 1888! if it happens that will be remarkable especially considering the urban development since then so it would be even more of a feat to achieve but it may actually be done!

There's still snow in the air here but it's coming down lightly. Even with the clouds and snow I'm below zero. If we ever do clear out and decouple with the fresh deep snow cover temperatures should plummet.

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Clear skies and light winds at KART airport, already down to -15F let's see how low can they go tonight!

 

KBUF is also at its 2nd snowiest Feb. on record already at 39.7". The snowiest Feb. on record was back in 57-58 season of 54.2". We have 2 more weeks to get 15 more inches. Going to be tough unless we get hit with that system next weekend. Sometimes those arctic fronts can pack a punch as well.

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I think Jan 1977 mean temp of 13.8 is within reach.  11.8 in February 1934 is going to be tough.  The mean temp should be around 12 by the end of the week.  

 

Amazing. The potential to be the coldest month ever, and the snowiest Feb. on record. Would be something else...These last two years have been incredible.

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Stupid NY Times article claims that over 20 inches fell in Boston "on top the over seven feet already on the ground": http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/16/us/dangers-frustrations-and-snow-keep-piling-up-in-new-england.html

When I was digging my in laws out in the Southtowns in November after way more than seven feet fell in three days, the snow pack was NOT literally seven feet deep. Do I think BOX has a 40+ inch snow depth? Probably, and that stuff gets dense like concrete - we know more than anyone else just what that means. It's truly awful to deal with. But the seven feet + 20 inches is just total BS.

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i appreciate the true and accurate msrmt from the guy in Hamburg! too often, people say they have 3 feet on the ground and only have 17". Good pics too! Well done. my locale has about 20" on the ground. pics soon, i hope. But some in the community are saying that we have 4 ft. on the ground. And then we have the Rochester airport saying 3" fell last nite. -totally false. At least 6" fell in that time frame. The locale media mets have stopped reporting airport numbers due to their extreme inconsistencies. Supposedly, the NWS is looking into it.

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Yeah, ROC airport numbers are obviously such a poor representation of the area that they need to be ignored. Obviously we get a lot of differences between points in WNY but they're just way low all the time.

The thing that annoys me about "seven feet of snow on the ground" goes beyond using the high measurement to represent the entire Boston area. It's that settling and sublimation (and melt) have a huge effect on snowpack. Having a two or three foot persistent snowpack is a big deal - that snow is heavy, water laden, and isn't going anywhere quickly. So to say "seven feet of snow on the ground" sets ridiculous expectations for people who don't understand or experience extreme snowfall.

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Still really liking the potential for a 24-36 hour LES event starting Wednesday evening through Thursday night/Friday morning. 

 

post-595-0-82047500-1424093651_thumb.gif

The GFS has a beautiful looking broad cyclonic flow over Lake Ontario with a lot of moisture to work with. Using lake temps of 34, BUFKIT profiles show LI CAPEs of ~1000-1200 J/kg, along with EL rapidly rising to near 15k ft Wednesday evening. This flow wavers back and forth between roughly 280-295 for about 30 hours before BL winds turn more north-northwesterly and mid levels dry out considerably. The ECM is relatively similar although much less optimistic on total moisture availability. I ran text output for FZY, and it does have a 24 hour period of 280/290 flow, although the BL looks to be a little more sheared then I would like to see. 

 

post-595-0-89213600-1424093319_thumb.gif

One thing I continue to worry about is how hi-res models will treat the half frozen lake. Hi-res models did absolutely awful with the single band off Ontario last week which brought parts of Oswego county over a foot of snow in a short period of time. The 4km NAM (above) had a very weak signature for LES, but continues to mis-interpret loose ice cover on Ontario, giving flawed surface outputs like the one shown above for this morning. The map clearly shows that the NAM is essentially treating part of the lake like land, which can severely limit how hi-res guidance will do with any Lake snows. The latest 1km satellite shows the majority of the Lake still is open water, with ice concentrated on both the north and south shores of the Lake. 

 

It's hard not to like a sounding like this:

post-595-0-04331900-1424093590_thumb.gif

 

From what I've personally seen and talked about with a lot of others at SUNY Oswego, this is arguably the best setup for Oswego county this year (although potentially the early January event had a slightly better setup). The one thing I personally do not like is how fast the DGZ gets killed off by Thursday AM. Other than that, this looks like a good single band event for southeast of Ontario. 

 

I know there are some mets here that know a lot more then I do, so I'm curious as to what your thoughts are at this point!

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Predict the lows for the following cities!

 

KBUF-   -18F

KJHW-  -22F

KROC-  -17F

KELM-    11F

KITH-    -13F

KSYR-  -10F

KART-  -32F

KBGM- -13F

KALB-  -12F

KUCA- -18F

 

 

Actual low temps

 

KBUF-   -10F

KJHW-  -17F

KROC-  -6F

KELM-    -9F

KITH-     -4F

KSYR-  -14F

KART-  -34F

KBGM-  -7F

KALB-   -7F

KUCA- -20F

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