40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just absolutely zero consensus. Frustrating that the GEM and UK still suck so badly, and the EC is relatively pedestrian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx 25m25 minutes ago RGEM total snow through 8am Sunday is weak. Under 6" all of SNE You could essentially post the same thing about the other good model solutions...maybe outside of far NE MA. The best stuff falls between 12z and 18z on most of the big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just absolutely zero consensus. Frustrating that the GEM and UK still suck so badly, and the EC is relatively pedestrian. Frustrating but likely the way to go Imo. It will take this system time to wrap moisture...look how far offshore the best boundary will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah Saturday noon thru say midnight is a general 3-6..The heavy snow comes with the def band and ccb which really isn[t until after 6:00 am Sunday onwards..That's when many folks get another 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx 25m25 minutes ago RGEM total snow through 8am Sunday is weak. Under 6" all of SNE What a damn mess this whole event is. Nothing makes sense....even seeimgly perfect soutions are foiled by some sled dog in Navahut not having a moist enough coat of fur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't think you can just throw out the GGEM, Ukie, and NAM. That's a pretty large cluster of models that suggest a relatively minor impact compared to expectations and to ignore it in favor of the GFS(which is currently an outlier right now and we've already seen it be too wet on a couple of systems this winter) is a dangerous move I think. Big euro run coming up to see if the GGEM/ukie are out to lunch or if the further northern track has some real support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The only one giving me some pause is CMC and it's better cousin is balls to the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The only one giving me some pause is CMC and it's better cousin is balls to the wall. I don't even mind the GGEM look really...it's being funky with th einverted trough like it has the whole time, but the ML center was clearly south of the Ukie/NAM...and actually, in all honesty, the NAM wasn't that bad either. QPF queens didn't like it, but that would probably be a pretty high end warning event for E MA (>8"). Ukie is by far the ugliest for the upper/mid level look. I'd like the GGEM to be a bit stronger with the ULL...but it's on the 40th parallel, so location isn't the detriment there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Jesus.. the instability on the NAM is pretty awesome. I think many, many see thundersnow in some absurd conditions this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The American consensus vs. foreign suites not sitting easy right now... Ukie and GGEM looks make this 12z Euro run even more critical for confidence in the bigger SNE impact, and historically, we have reason to be nervous. You and I went through this on the last big system and this one is even more of an issue. I think we may be underplayng the tug for this one to attempt to develop way offshore, or at least split/delay consolidation between the intense thermal boundary vs in advance of ULL. By the time it consolidates it's just too late. Assuming high ratios Boston nws seems fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Coastal Essex is the place to be. Someone needs to call Cantore and tell him to get up there. We need live shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Coastal Essex is the place to be. Someone needs to call Cantore and tell him to get up there. We need live shots. Or just shots, shots, shots shots shots shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You and I went through this on the last big system and this one is even more of an issue. I think we may be underplayng the tug for this one to attempt to develop way offshore, or at least split/delay consolidation between the intense thermal boundary vs in advance of ULL. By the time it consolidates it's just too late. Assuming high ratios Boston nws seems fine. The GFS was in that east camp last time and the NAM was actually on the west camp. Now you have them switched for this one. That too me is a bigger red flag, meaning the same will not happen. You have a less reliable camp now of the UKIE/GGEM/NAM instead of GGEM/UKIE/GFS. If the GFS isn't in the east camp I think the east camp is a bogus one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Coastal Essex is the place to be. Someone needs to call Cantore and tell him to get up there. We need live shots. P Town looks pretty intense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 OK OK OK.... Ponder This.... This is off the freaking Charts. In Of the 4 months that can have record snow every year, and the records going back 140 years or so. That's 560 Months. Of those 560 Months, THIS Month is going to Break the ALL-TIME Record in Less than HALF the Month AND this does NOT even Count the Blizzard of 2015 which happened BEFORE February Started!!!! Snow for February in Boston.png Yeah, things are pretty much off the charts. But calendar months are arbitrary, I pulled climate numbers and have been looking at trends and they are pretty much as dramatic. Also, this is pretty banterish, so mods feel free to move … Snow records at BOS back to 1892, but daily at the airport back to 1936 (before then was a) a different site, a separate data pull and c) there were no huge years before then). Previous snowiest four weeks was 58" in 1978 (yeah, those storms) and 1996. The past four weeks stand at 72.8, with only 0.8 in the first 10 of those days, so if there's another foot in the next week (certainly in the realm of possibility given Sun and maybe Weds) you're looking at 84"—7 feet!—in a month. Which is nearly 50% more than the previous record. As far as standard deviations go, it's off the charts. Then there's temperature: previous snowy periods had at least some melt (The first storm in 1978 was down to 4" of snowcover when the blizzard hit). For BOS since the snow started falling in earnest (Jan 24), there have been three days above freezing. Three. All in the mid-30s. We're currently in a streak of 7 days below freezing, but that may wells stretch to 14 or longer. Boston gets a week solid below freezing about once every two or three years. But two weeks? That's happened three times since 1936, and the record is 16 days. And it's cold, too. Currently BOS is averaging 20.3˚ for February, and that should go down with the next couple of days. Unless there's a big warm up, Boston has a good chance to set the second-coldest month on record (and February: the record was 1934 when the average was 17.5˚, which also happened to be the month when the city hit -18˚, the coldest temperature on record). Considering February temperatures have trended up nearly 5˚ since 1872, this is particularly impressive. There has been one February below 25 since 1936. This month could be the coldest February by an impressively wide margin. Add the cold temperatures and the snowfall, and it creates the huge problems. And if it's 65 in March and pours rain, watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Bar none .. the most entertaining eye popper solution out of the buffet to choose from this morning... the winner goes to the NAVGEM imo - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 P Town looks pretty intense? I was speaking combined snowfall and wind. I think say Ray to Portland ME gets crushed by the CCB. Everyone back to ORH should get pretty decent banding backside for some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Like it or not the euro is the middle ground so far. Euro doesn't bother me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You could essentially post the same thing about the other good model solutions...maybe outside of far NE MA. The best stuff falls between 12z and 18z on most of the big hits. You've already said it, the mid levels are looking great. I'll ignore the QPF for now, and trust that it ends up falling for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Bar none .. the most entertaining eye popper solution out of the buffet to choose from this morning... the winner goes to the NAVGEM imo - Looks east to me. Why is it eye popping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like I need to go buy some flowers today, bonus midnight shift I think on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like I need to go buy some flowers today, bonus midnight shift I think on Saturday. Sir, could you comment for a moment on how snowfall looks for 1500 feet just north of Jackson, NH? I see some enhancement on the models from the Whites. Curious if I am looking at 12 inches, or 16(+). I imagine the winds are going to be impressive too. Carter Notch Rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks east to me. Why is it eye popping? that surface low is deepest I have seen; it can be east little -- it's close enough given its size/depth, while the other attributes are astounding. the 700mb is closed several contours with >90% RH everywhere... some one is getting exotic snow fall rates while wind is routinely gusting over 40mph even inland. The other guidance have all this, but this particular depiction has panache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 that surface low is deepest I have seen; it can be east little -- it's close enough given its size/depth, while the other attributes are astounding. the 700mb is closed several contours with >90% RH everywhere... some one is getting exotic snow fall rates while wind is routinely gusting over 40mph even inland. The other guidance have all this, but this particular depiction has panache Yeah that run wraps the TROWAL pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That model run is nuts... It has a hefty QPF snow event from Miller A like 3 days after -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sir, could you comment for a moment on how snowfall looks for 1500 feet just north of Jackson, NH? I see some enhancement on the models from the Whites. Curious if I am looking at 12 inches, or 16(+). I imagine the winds are going to be impressive too. Carter Notch Rd. Depends on how far west we can get that CCB flow. Because otherwise ageostrophic component will be mostly N and there could be some down sloping issues. That would be good for backside wind gusts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah that run wraps the TROWAL pretty far west. I know.. .my god! I mean, flicks of light followed by low decible thundering at 15F or less with whiteout snow in high wind. Wrap it up, send it in, go home -- it's been great work day. Just wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah that run wraps the TROWAL pretty far west. Yeah into VT and NH... maybe NY for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Depends on how far west we can get that CCB flow. Because otherwise ageostrophic component will be mostly N and there could be some down sloping issues. That would be good for backside wind gusts though. OK, thanks. My thoughts on the wind too. Sunday is going to be brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That model run is nuts... It has a hefty QPF snow event from Miller A like 3 days after --Over this stretch, I thought the Navgem has been pretty good at sniffing out these threats, does it have a good track record within 60 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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