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Super Snow Sunday


40/70 Benchmark

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RGEM an improvement from the extrapolated 6z

 

on earlier extrapolated runs looked like it tracked too far south with a dual low structure that swung around to largely miss SNE too far east, sort of like GGEM. That was a red flag bothering me last night, and this 12z run is greatly reassuring.

Likewise. 

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The RGEM still has a shaft zone though in parts of SNE much like the nam does

 

The column is less than ideally saturable prior to this thing's arriving kinematics..

 

It's been plaguing all guidance types, and cycles there in, up to this point.  I suspect the trends folks are noting re the steadily improving profile over all, is really just a result of the steadily strengthening depictions of the deep layer fields coming down with this thing, compensating. 

 

Note on that:  Even at a mere 30 hours prior to said crossing the Apps cordillera, there is time for this thing to be more potent yet.  For the general reader ... The current initialization is up in midriff Canada ... as the NAM would have it, over the western shores of James Bay.  Now, I am less than certain of this, but I suspect that is not the best sampled region for the input grids.  Perhaps someone with better specific knowledge wrt the assimilated vs physical sonding regions of the domains could atone for that ..  

 

One issue that's sort of taken a back-seat here is the fast nature of the flow.  That impulse coming down is ginormous ... for shear power alone it's probably top tier in anomaly.  So strong that it appears to offset what would otherwise take anything that's embedded in that trough and zoom it half way to England before one finishes dinner. If the flow overall was just a little weaker, than this thing stalls nearly ideally; and then there's no justification for any consternation, whatsoever, by those poor, suffering denizens of the SNE forum. Reading so many of these posts ... ha, there's a clear albeit smoldering/underpinning sense of loss in constant play with this. You think if you didn't know of the last three weeks, this region might have gone through snow abandonment ... the likes of which would make a prom night dumpster baby feel cozy in mom's bosom.  

 

People joke about "addiciton" - one may laugh, but that proportion is quite correct.  And like any addicts, there not much room for rational thought or higher reasoning when it comes to the mere prospect of interfering with the constant flow of drugs.  

 

I digress ... anyway, the fast flow means that we can transport such a powerful feature from that region over N/A all the way to SE of CC in 24 to 36 hours.  A lot of moving parts there to correctly sample... 

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All out blizzard on GFS. Verbatim 12+ for BOS.

 

Gets an inch of QPF about back to 495...for the queens.

 

Even 0.75" is getting back to western ORH county and parts of NE CT. Pretty solid run.

 

As the mid-level center around 700 tracks from SE of Montauk to roughly ACK...that is when the whole precip shield should just blossom almost overhead and get pretty intense for a time. It is a rapdily deepening ML center too so it should produce pretty awesome lift.

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Nice BOS sounding at 12z Sunday....-11C at 850mb and -16C at 700mb...with a rapidly deepening H7 low over MVY/ACK...I think you'd take your chance swith that

 

150213160141.gif

 

No, Will. I doubt this will win the new logo contest for the Wu Tang clan.

 

Perhaps we could come up with a better entry if they revealed the Wu Tang secret; but alas; they never shall.

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Gets an inch of QPF about back to 495...for the queens.

 

Even 0.75" is getting back to western ORH county and parts of NE CT. Pretty solid run.

 

As the mid-level center around 700 tracks from SE of Montauk to roughly ACK...that is when the whole precip shield should just blossom almost overhead and get pretty intense for a time. It is a rapdily deepening ML center too so it should produce pretty awesome lift.

12-20" in ne MA 

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OK OK OK.... Ponder This.... This is off the freaking Charts.  In Of the 4 months that can have record snow every year, and the records going back 140 years or so.  That's 560 Months.  Of those 560 Months, THIS Month is going to Break the ALL-TIME Record in Less than HALF the Month AND this does NOT even Count the Blizzard of 2015 which happened BEFORE February Started!!!!  

 

post-2792-0-68959200-1423843547_thumb.pn  

 

 

 

 

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