Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's hard to tell, but the RGEM didn't get any better and I think it got worse. B*W maps though, we'll see. Anemic back from the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 They've been awful in general. Take a look at the 15z runs vs now for say 3 hours from now. They were winding up too far too fast, too strong. Similar to the older failed GFS runs. agree, I generally only look at the HRRR or RAP out to 4-6 hrs.. beyond that is really just for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not updated entirely yet, but synopsis from BOX at 3:47 seems pretty similar (and OT, but slight change re midweek storm) A POWERFUL AND VERY DANGEROUS OFFSHORE STORM DEVELOPS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES SUNDAY MORNING. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS FOR THE OUTER-CAPE AND NANTUCKET. EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...FOLLOWS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF BITTER COLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Switching to observation. Snow already coming down pretty good here in southern NH. Dinner at 6:00 literally on the beach. OT but wanted to thank you all for the amazing discussions these past days. Humbling to see so much expertise still seemingly baffled by this one right up to and including when the snow starts to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's hard to tell, but the RGEM didn't get any better and I think it got worse. B*W maps though, we'll see. Anemic back from the immediate coast. I'll let you know when my wxbell rgem maps come out and I'll compare. They are always behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'll let you know when my wxbell rgem maps come out and I'll compare. They are always behind. It should have easy to read numbers on meteocentre within about 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This storm really trying to make it very clear that despite all our advances in meteorology and model upgrades and everything else, weather will weather. Interested to see how the NWS handles this in the update coming out in a bit. If we had this same setup back in the 1960's with the primitive modeling we had then, I wonder what they would have been forecasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Box cuts back on totals about 2 inches across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If we had this same setup back in the 1960's with the primitive modeling we had then, I wonder what they would have been forecasting? It was rare even in the 50s to get completely blindsided. The one case was 3/19/56 which was an un forecasted even at Nowcast 1-2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Box cuts back on totals about 2 inches across the board. What? That map is 12 hours old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well it is though. Advisory vs warning. 4km nam is slashing QPF totals, the trend is disturbing there. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/ptot26.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What? That map is 12 hours old. It is updated. I had to refresh a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What? That map is 12 hours old. The map from this morning had 10-14 for most of E Mass, with 14-18 in the far NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The map from this morning had 10-14 for most of E Mass, with 14-18 in the far NE. That's what is showing in the image you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ok I see it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ok I see it now. Yeah, sorry about that, must have been a cached issue related to the URL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks reasonable based on what we've seen. Wonder where Harv stands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That's what is showing in the image you posted. You must have an old cache. It's not showing that Jer. But latest rap has a pretty deform in the morning.. So we hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 wut,apparently you think I am a Jp ho,said all along and will tell you again, this storm ain't about big snow and if he thinks 1-3 good for him. He didn't feel the last 18 inches of snow you got either,let's not overlook that or the fact RGEM totally missed wrap around Blizzard 1, he said blizzard warnings should come down post haste, let's see how that plays out. He actually nailed the last event. He was the one steadfastly asserting that is what coming se, which it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That Box MAP is better. The HRRR is a toaster bath at 20z, compare the 10h to the 15z 15..yes I know long but it shows clearly what the differences were between the steroidal GFS and now the better runs. That inverted trough doesn't become a main low so to speak, and therefore we don't see the spinup aloft that those models created that drove a blanket of QPF. NORMALLY once the convective processes have failed to fire the model corrects. The GFS should finally correct this run I think...although it may still wait until the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It was rare even in the 50s to get completely blindsided. The one case was 3/19/56 which was an un forecasted even at Nowcast 1-2 feet. I think that may have been the one my father couldn't get home that night from work at the Sears plant in the Fenway, and ended up taking shelter at one of the hospitals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Box cuts back on totals about 2 inches across the board. They kept it the same here. 6" was a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That is a cool narrow S+ Band traversing the State college Radar http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=ccx&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quizplz Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NWS just lowered the Lewiston/Auburn area from 18+ to 10 to 14. What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think that may have been the one my father couldn't get home that night from work at the Sears plant in the Fenway, and ended up taking shelter at one of the hospitals. You must be close to my age. It was a Sunday after a quick burst of 4-6 Friday. I was 9 and out with my friends sledding. In those days, we just sledded down paved hilly roads with packed snow...miracle we survived... Anyway, I remember mothers coming out tot drag us home and when I noticed it was snowing heavily I perked up. The next morning an all out blizzard was ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think the 18z GFS bought a clue just based on the init panel. YAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NWS just lowered the Lewiston/Auburn area from 18+ to 10 to 14. What gives? clinch hacked into system and is screwing w/ totals Less impressive on models for that area/most areas With Regard To am's forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 HRRR 20z continues tracking that mesolow further and further south with every run. Almost pivots it over cape ann this time. Looks like fun into the AM Hours. RAP is similar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think the 18z GFS bought a clue just based on the init panel. YAY! what? you can tell by the 0hr panel? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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