BostonWX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The amazing part has been the Dorchester area. 93s and 93n have actually been moving decently but streets between andrew square to fields corner, morrissey between 93 and southie, the rotaries off 93 between mass ave and jfk umass, and dorchester ave have been gridlocked for weeks. It's pretty ridiculous. Most rail service is barely functional between Braintree and JFK. There were about 30 Peter Pan busses transporting people along the route yesterday. This is unmistakably high impact... National guard was even in Milton creating snowfields on roads and fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For the young and able bodied it is manageable. For the elderly, infirmed, and those relaying on under the best circumstances a broken mass transit system it's been a nightmare. I'm 68 years old and healthy and have enough resources so that I can enjoy every storm. Most in my age cohort aren't so lucky. And when I take the T to work every Friday, I have been known to angrily ask a 20 something to give a seat to someone in their 80s or older. The warnings are geared for everyone it those most vulnerable must heed them carefully. This is true. I just wonder if we've lessoned the standards for blizzards to the point that people will at some point treat them as such. 18z NAM was south of 12z with it's surface low track. Also advertises a further south meso low track offshore east of cape ann. Sort of seems like that be heading toward Portsmouth rather than Maine on hires modeling. The key will be to watch the meso off NYC later. Most of the models want to spin that out under the cape and if there is to be a surprise jack i'll be on the north side of that. In fact I see that as the far greater potential vs backlash bombings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The amazing part has been the Dorchester area. 93s and 93n have actually been moving decently but streets between andrew square to fields corner, morrissey between 93 and southie, the rotaries off 93 between mass ave and jfk umass, and dorchester ave have been gridlocked for weeks. During the week, every rd including X way was a standstill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 During the week, every rd including X way was a standstill. That sounds like a normal day...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 During the week, every rd including X way was a standstill. I musta got out just early enough friday then to beat the highway traffic. It did take me 30 minutes from the state police barracks at moakley park to get on 93s on JFK... LOL... That's like 1/8sm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Eric Fisher @ericfisher 6m6 minutes ago Interesting to note that high-res models like HRRR, RAP, RPM are putting sfc low much farther west than global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The key will be to watch the meso off NYC later. Most of the models want to spin that out under the cape and if there is to be a surprise jack i'll be on the north side of that. In fact I see that as the far greater potential vs backlash bombings. A lot of differences model to model handling all these little circulations as we expected. I'm watching the one southeast of SE NH because that has good potential to work its way back SW into the morning hours or so we hope. Could be a good finale for south shore on some models too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Eric Fisher @ericfisher 6m6 minutes ago Interesting to note that high-res models like HRRR, RAP, RPM are putting sfc low much farther west than global models. Snow, snowy,Snowier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Eric Fisher @ericfisher 6m6 minutes ago Interesting to note that high-res models like HRRR, RAP, RPM are putting sfc low much farther west than global models. Give me 75 miles west and I'll be happy. Almost RGEM time--eager to hear from folks who have early panels on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well, despite whatever will end up happening in PWM, we just got an email that our Disney on Ice show @11:30 has been cancelled. Shame too because even though we saw it last night, we had ended up being given a set of rink side tickets for tomorrows show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Did some sort of weird backdoor boundary come through Boston from the North Shore? If you look at the radar, it looks like the heavier echoes were all suddenly squashed south. Maybe I'm just seeing things.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Eric Fisher @ericfisher 6m6 minutes ago Interesting to note that high-res models like HRRR, RAP, RPM are putting sfc low much farther west than global models. I'm seeing this on the latest NAM too. But models like the HRRR, RAP, RPM are really volatile run to run and toward the end of the run they get more and more unreliable. Hr 15 is the final hour the HRRR has but it's equivalent of taking the 84hr NAM as a lock. I will note that the HRRR would extrapolate for a CCB hit within 495. RAP goes out a few more hours and also advertises the 495 east hit. I think we need to see this consistently modeled into the night to begin to believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Snow, snowy,Snowier I am not buying the models today. Too much disagreement. Its coming from somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah hi res nam is like double the qpf of the regular version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 A lot of differences model to model handling all these little circulations as we expected. I'm watching the one southeast of SE NH because that has good potential to work its way back SW into the morning hours or so we hope. Could be a good finale for south shore on some models too. Well those are the two main deals. It's a really tough call, I think the one that passes under me is the big deal and will rap up impressively. But we're also seeing the short meso-s shove that S&E today.... The latest mesos give me well over 1" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Clinch, are you looking at the radar? Take a gander at the shore. The heavier echoes are getting shunted rapidly south near the shore. Any idea what could account for that? Dry air? Odd looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah hi res nam is like double the qpf of the regular version. Yeah just saw that, it's over .5" for all of those east of ORH. That seems fine Fella.....4 to .7...and there will be lolli's under bands and OE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I have light snow here, I'm in riverhead, no sleet The sleet/rain line is out by East Hampton. You're further west and north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This storm really trying to make it very clear that despite all our advances in meteorology and model upgrades and everything else, weather will weather. Interested to see how the NWS handles this in the update coming out in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Eric Fisher @ericfisher 6m6 minutes ago Interesting to note that high-res models like HRRR, RAP, RPM are putting sfc low much farther west than global models. and a bit south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well those are the two main deals. It's a really tough call, I think the one that passes under me is the big deal and will rap up impressively. But we're also seeing the short meso-s shove that S&E today.... The latest mesos give me well over 1" QPF Radar trajectory doesn't look too bad for the Cape. Some solid echoes heading your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah hi res nam is like double the qpf of the regular version. The hi res nam total totals are off the charts tomorrow early.. It rotates heavy banding into eastern portions in what likely advertises thunder snow. The NAM is alarmingly close to pivoting that mesolow over ne ma. It's now just north over Rockingham County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah hi res nam is like double the qpf of the regular version. Given the regular NAM's amounts, that's not saying a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Clinch, are you looking at the radar? Take a gander at the shore. The heavier echoes are getting shunted rapidly south near the shore. Any idea what could account for that? Dry air? Odd looking. I don' tthink they're really getting "shunted" it's just the support driving them is sliding east. This was the big difference between earlier HRRR/RAP models and the new ones. Earlier today they were driving the heart of that moisture into CT much like the older GFS runs...now it slides along the coast, up over me, and then works up. RGEM is a little sparse, pushes 10mm towards me by 1am, spotty 5mm or less elsewhere through 1. It's much less than the 6z, don't know how it compares to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hi res models tracking the low very close to GFS..interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z NAM was south of 12z with it's surface low track. Also advertises a further south meso low track offshore east of cape ann. Sort of seems like that be heading toward Portsmouth rather than Maine on hires modeling. FWIW Hi Res nam has been slashing QPF totals on nearly every Run over that MESO Jackpot area near PSM. It doesn't even have anywhere SOUTH WEST of Bar Harbor with more than a inch of QPF anymore. 18z totals http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/ptot24.html and them compare to 12z totals http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/ptot33.html 6z had best totals on cape ann fWIW http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_6z/ptot42.html Look at QPF totals on 0z 6z 12z and 18z Hi Res nam. Those simulated radar returns are showing a clear decreasing trend reflected in QPF. Not saying its right or wrong but unless you have looked at every run of it ( I have) the trend has been clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Eric Fisher @ericfisher 6m6 minutes ago Interesting to note that high-res models like HRRR, RAP, RPM are putting sfc low much farther west than global models. Eric Fisher @ericfisher 6m6 minutes ago Interesting to note that high-res models like HRRR, RAP, RPM are putting sfc low much farther west than global models. Which probably explains why the globals didn't show the sleet/rain getting into E LI now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Given the regular NAM's amounts, that's not saying a whole lot. Well it is though. Advisory vs warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 and a bit south They've been awful in general. Take a look at the 15z runs vs now for say 3 hours from now. They were winding up too far too fast, too strong. Similar to the older failed GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don' tthink they're really getting "shunted" it's just the support driving them is sliding east. This was the big difference between earlier HRRR/RAP models and the new ones. Earlier today they were driving the heart of that moisture into CT much like the older GFS runs...now it slides along the coast, up over me, and then works up. RGEM is a little sparse, pushes 10mm towards me by 1am, spotty 5mm or less elsewhere through 1. It's much less than the 6z, don't know how it compares to the 12z. Interesting. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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