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Super Snow Sunday


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That is what I have been saying.

 

Can't really call it a win.

 

What you may or may not be detecting is that tendency for folks to bargain/spin so to not face the plausibility that the fever pitch leading into this event may very well have been for not.    Bargaining, in the 3rd stage of death acceptance ... is when people play games with the reality to lesson the anguish of the truth (in so many word...).   Continuing on with this GFS scores a coup thing, while not acknowledging that it has essentially halved the QPF totals in 12 hours (2-cycles), is playing games - no question. 

 

Heh, I'm good for this season.  I've had a nice entertained winter experience over the last several weeks. If spring erupted tomorrow, couldn't be happier.   

 

Unfortunately .. .doesn't appear the pattern is in any hurry to change.  

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What GFS coup, anyway ... I'm seeing .5 ...maybe .6" QPF in 50 mph winds.  Yeah, all dramatic, ...and it'll blow all the snow out to sea. Ha!

 

The problem is, and has been the s

 

What you may or may not be detecting is that tendency for folks to bargain/spin so to not face the plausibility that the fever pitch leading into this event may very well have been for not.    Bargaining, in the 3rd stage of death acceptance ... is when people play games with the reality to lesson the anguish of the truth (in so many word...).   Continuing on with this GFS scores a coup thing, while not acknowledging that it has essentially halved the QPF totals in 12 hours (2-cycles), is playing games - no question. 

 

Heh, I'm good for this season.  I've had a nice entertained winter experience over the last several weeks. If spring erupted tomorrow, couldn't be happier.   

 

Unfortunately .. .doesn't appear the pattern is in any hurry to change.  

 

 

You can say it in a way that doesn't offend people and that is admirable.   What we have here is a failure to communicate and the media barrage of a "Day after tomorrow" scenario come Monday for Boston....

 

You hit it on the head with the moisture issue.  Sure, now it's starting to improve but we're starting from such a depressed point those few hours it takes to ramp up today are a killer ASIDE of areas near the nor and that can get into the CCB.   Missing will be the interlude precip that is the cherry on top of GFS totals.

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New GGEM got worse again.  It's a little lighter at the top of the tulip bulb by Portland.  The overall placement of the moisture seems fine, could argue it should be a little higher but I don't see this being terribly wrong in placement,   GGEM face value is 1-3 or 3-6" for most of us.  Maybe 4-8 with good ratios in NE MA.

 

JpPtgIe.jpg

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New GGEM got worse again.  It's a little lighter at the top of the tulip bulb by Portland.  The overall placement of the moisture seems fine, could argue it should be a little higher but I don't see this being terribly wrong in placement,   GGEM face value is 1-3 or 3-6" for most of us.  Maybe 4-8 with good ratios in NE MA.

 

JpPtgIe.jpg

 

That's another kick in the nuts.

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That's another kick in the nuts.

 

This is probably a better representation - there will be lolli's and bands the GGEM would miss.  This is the RGEM, could be a paralyzing blizzard with almost .3"...kidding aside I bet the Euro does ramp up a bit in the coastal areas.   The RGEM has a signal similar to the GFS for the SE Coastal areas where a death band tries to form before rotating over the Cape and aligning into Portlands fanny.   There should be some Blizzard of 2015 like totals from coastal SW Maine.

 

rP0TsZv.jpg

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New GGEM got worse again.  It's a little lighter at the top of the tulip bulb by Portland.  The overall placement of the moisture seems fine, could argue it should be a little higher but I don't see this being terribly wrong in placement,   GGEM face value is 1-3 or 3-6" for most of us.  Maybe 4-8 with good ratios in NE MA.

 

 

The GGEM isn't even handling the H5 trough even remotely the same as the gfs and euro. It opens it up, and doesn't even have a closed H5 low. That is a HUGE difference. I will say that the GGEM evolution will be more wrong than the GFS even if the GFS qpf amounts are too high the same can be said about the GGEM and the way it handles the H5 setup as it closes in on the coast and hits the waters off the Atlantic.

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This is probably a better representation - there will be lolli's and bands the GGEM would miss.  This is the RGEM, could be a paralyzing blizzard with almost .3"...kidding aside I bet the Euro does ramp up a bit in the coastal areas.   The RGEM has a signal similar to the GFS for the SE Coastal areas where a death band tries to form before rotating over the Cape and aligning into Portlands fanny.   There should be some Blizzard of 2015 like totals from coastal SW Maine.

 

rP0TsZv.jpg

 

is the light shade of green in New England that .10"?  If so, I'm in there just west of the .25".  Underwhelming.

 

Temp climbing quickly.

 

8.0/0, flurries

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GFS now looks generally similar to the Euro with it's evolution, a bit juicer re QPF in western sections, but overall it's a fairly similar combo. I think if the Euro comes in similar to it's 0z run, take a blend of those two and call it a day. GGEM is out to lunch with the evolution compared to those two in that it doesn't even close off H5, so I'm tossing it unless the Euro shifts towards that evolution as well. 

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Well, I'm off for a while.  

 

After taking in what's available off the 12z guidance, and comparing/reconciling the best I can with trends heretofore .. . I think that this is a midland storm with abnormally high winds for being a storm in that rank. 

 

If there were better antecedent baroclinic -type gradients for these uber intent mid levels to work over, we'd be talking a different animal, but it's wasted mechanical power in my current estimation.  

 

One caveat there is that same power -- now cast may prove that the very latest suggestion/tendency of backing off, may be incorrect. Best to let this thing cook for awhile, and then come back later and see if the kitchen smells good.

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GFS now looks generally similar to the Euro with it's evolution, a bit juicer re QPF in western sections, but overall it's a fairly similar combo. I think if the Euro comes in similar to it's 0z run, take a blend of those two and call it a day. GGEM is out to lunch with the evolution compared to those two in that it doesn't even close off H5, so I'm tossing it unless the Euro shifts towards that evolution as well. 

 

At this point, I think the SREF and GFS are the only guidance suggesting warning criteria in northwestern zones.  Barring other guidance showing more qpf  in the next six hours, (yes, I'm a queen wrt this), I'd go WAA out here for verification purposes.

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The stuff over CT isn't purely norlun either I don't think though there is definitely some assist there...the SREF and GFS are producing some pretty intense forcing within the deepening 500 low.

 

Take a look at the 15z RAP...it keeps trending west with the best focus of WAA in the mid-levels...it is losing the focus out to the east in the Atlantic....thus, it wouldn't surprise me if we get clocked later tonight after a brief lull...all that vroticity curling up from the delmarva and tucking in close to the coast isn't really a recipe for a big eastward whiff on the best forcing. There will be a piece out to the east, but I think it has become less dominant on each run over the past 6-12 hours...and this morning on the short-term guidance.

 Thanks for bringing some sanity back..Just been some hideous analysis from some folks today. Ugh

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This. You'd think it was the Mid-Atlantic with the acrimony and micro analyzing in here. Think this will be fun, whether it's a windy inch or a foot. Love the water vapor loop for the last 24 hours and the responding baroclinic leaf popping over the Mid-Atlantic.

Yep. Don't recall ever seeing a thread with people as ridiculous irt a storm as this one. It's going to snow, and it's going to wind.

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This. You'd think it was the Mid-Atlantic with the acrimony and micro analyzing in here. Think this will be fun, whether it's a windy inch or a foot. Love the water vapor loop for the last 24 hours and the responding baroclinic leaf popping over the Mid-Atlantic.

I agree it'll be a fun storm regardless.....but there's a big difference between an inch and a foot. This is a discussion forum...we're just discussing the models and scenarios and trying to find the correct solution.
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