HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This isn't a paste job snow for Boston, light and fluffy which helps plus the T has the luxury of offering limited service Monday due to holiday and then back to full service Tuesday. I know there has been a lot of snow already but Boston is not shutting down, even with 12"-18", trust me. I know, slightly ot but I want to add that this storm is again an E NE special and Gov. Baker will not hesitate to call in help from the National Guard and states W & S of MA. He has already asked for federal aid. 12" + from this and 12" more mid-week and Boston will still be business as usual within 24 hours post event. There are game plans for these scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just watched Harvey's 11pm full segment....did a great job as usual breaking down the storm and the way it may go in two parts. Even the though the newcasters were talking about the forecast as doom and gloom...you could sense Harvey was pretty excited to tell them that the week was going to feature arctic cold and then another potential snow event Tuesday night/Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm expecting 12"+ here all the local mets are honking for NEMA with some bands setting up. Most of the models have us in 1"+ and with the temps, expecting a 12:1 ratio or better. Can't wait for the winds on the coast here as well! Sunday morning should be rocking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just watched Harvey's 11pm full segment....did a great job as usual breaking down the storm and the way it may go in two parts. Even the though the newcasters were talking about the forecast as doom and gloom...you could sense Harvey was pretty excited to tell them that the week was going to feature arctic cold and then another potential snow event Tuesday night/Wednesday. Hes as twisted as we are, imagine the depths of some of those drifts by Thursday, wetter snow Wednesday will make places to put it more of an issue too. Geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wouldn't mind another law school snowday, we only close if MBTA shut . 3 snow days so far this month, 2 snow days since 1978 until this winter.No kidding with all these snow days. Kind of feel bad for the 1Ls who are no doubt struggling to get into a routine. BOS could easily be 90+ on the season after this. 55+ for the month at the halfway point. Incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 if euro holds I'm leaning GFS/nam/rgem How can you do that lol. The GFS and RGEM are pretty far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't think I'd go blizzard warnings all the way back, but I'm more bullish for snow than the RGEM is, that is for sure. GFS might be a little too happy with the coverage of 1"+ qpf, but I like 8-12" for most ORH eastward with higher lollis in the usual spots like Essex county and probably down to BOS and Weymouth. GFS drives a lot of moisture (over 1/2") from this feature it continues to spin up and keep tighter that the others allow to shear and escape ENE. Who knows...could be feedback or lack thereof..it looks bogus to me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Man, despite news focus on Boston what a year Portland on North has had. My niece lives in Portland and runs a gallery in Brunswick and she has been awe struck by the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 No kidding with all these snow days. Kind of feel bad for the 1Ls who are no doubt struggling to get into a routine. BOS could easily be 90+ on the season after this. 55+ for the month at the halfway point. Incredible! Haha, 1L here. Really tried to keep the weather thing quiet, came out in torts last semester, now I am the class of 2017 weather guy. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 How can you do that lol. The GFS and RGEM are pretty far apart.didnt the rgem Just improve significantly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This isn't a paste job snow for Boston, light and fluffy which helps plus the T has the luxury of offering limited service Monday due to holiday and then back to full service Tuesday. I know there has been a lot of snow already but Boston is not shutting down, even with 12"-18", trust me. Maybe not a full shutdown, but it is still a cluster#$%& around here. The T has had lengthy delays, commuting by car is a massive cluster#$&^, and narrow streets in the older neighborhoods are ridiculously cluttered with huge piles, despite the city's laudable efforts to remove them. Lots of people b!tching about neighbors taking parking spaces, dumping snow in them etc. I think a foot of fresh snow, combined with drifting of the existing pack if there's big wind, will have serious implications for getting around Boston, MBTA or otherwise. That said, I'm not fully buying what the GFS is selling. Even with the extraordinary ULL and its ominous trajectory, I think Tip and Clinch make a valid point about the limited baroclinic potential. This may in part explain why the QPF outputs are lower than one might typically expect of a bombing storm in the 965-970mb range. Even if this does prove something of a nolle prosequi compared to our recent events from an accumulation standpoint, I still think the wind, drifting and cold will be quite impactful and blizzard conditions will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Eh...may eat these words in the day ahead but I think the GFS is out to lunch being so far west. It looks like in the vicinity of where the inverted trough tries to form it takes a modest speedmax and goes apesh** with it as it rips NE across SNE. Look at the barbs in the image above no the GFS. Remove that and what you have is pretty much all the models (about .3 or .4 less than the GFS). It's either genius, or it's a feedback type error. Will see in 24 hours regardless. GGEM/NAM/RGEM all pretty much agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Maybe not a full shutdown, but it is still a cluster#$%& around here. The T has had lengthy delays, commuting by car is a massive cluster#$&^, and narrow streets in the older neighborhoods are ridiculously cluttered with huge piles, despite the city's laudable efforts to remove them. Lots of people b!tching about neighbors taking parking spaces, dumping snow in them etc. I think a foot of fresh snow, combined with drifting of the existing pack if there's big wind, will have serious implications for getting around Boston, MBTA or otherwise. That said, I'm not fully buying what the GFS is selling. Even with the extraordinary ULL and its ominous trajectory, I think Tip and Clinch make a valid point about the limited baroclinic potential. This may in part explain why the QPF outputs are lower than one might typically expect of a bombing storm in the 965-970mb range. Even if this does prove something of a nolle prosequi compared to our recent events from an accumulation standpoint, I still think the wind, drifting and cold will be quite impactful and blizzard conditions will verify. The Wednesday storm could be a real b*atch for them. If this event drops 10-14" fluff + drifts and then they get a 8-12" pasting Wednesday, its just compounding the S**tshow they've already had. Small business is also getting crushed by all of this in the suburbs. Ain't nobuddy got time for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 didnt the rgem Just improve significantly? Yeah, but it went from awful to ok. I would definitely not put it in the same camp as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This - To This - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS drives a lot of moisture (over 1/2") from this feature it continues to spin up and keep tighter that the others allow to shear and escape ENE. Who knows...could be feedback or lack thereof..it looks bogus to me though. It actually could be feedback on the other models that could be shearing and allowing the S/W to escape ENE. Like I said, this won't be so conventional. It's a true "polar low". The greatest instability will be closer to the coast and that is where this will bomb, not near the conventional wisdom of where the baroclinic zone is further east because that might be why those models are east. They key on something so conventional when the setup is clearly not so conventional if that makes sense. I fully expect this to hug the coast more initially and then get captured and "semi-stall" a smidge east of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah, but it went from awful to ok. I would definitely not put it in the same camp as the GFS.point is it made a significant move towards the GFS. GFS has been steady and doubled down earlier today and then again tonight. Two mesocale models moved towards GFS...gotta lean that way for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 point is it made a significant move towards the GFS. GFS has been steady and doubled down earlier today and then again tonight. Two mesocale models moved towards GFS...gotta lean that way for now Agreed, I do like the GFS more, but we still have a ways to go before we reach model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Haha, 1L here. Really tried to keep the weather thing quiet, came out in torts last semester, now I am the class of 2017 weather guy. Oh well Had the same experience for Nemo haha Good luck! And sorry for the OT, mods Any word on the UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The Wednesday storm could be a real b*atch for them. If this event drops 10-14" fluff + drifts and then they get a 8-12" pasting Wednesday, its just compounding the S**tshow they've already had. Small business is also getting crushed by all of this in the suburbs. Ain't nobuddy got time for this. Agreed, mini-recession around here (mini-bubble if you drive a plow). Of course, on the other hand, if we did realize the full potential, we would also close in to a 100" 30 day period. Oh, the humanity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It actually could be feedback on the other models that could be shearing and allowing the S/W to escape ENE. Like I said, this won't be so conventional. It's a true "polar low". The greatest instability will be closer to the coast and that is where this will bomb, not near the conventional wisdom of where the baroclinic zone is further east because that might be why those models are east. They key on something so conventional when the setup is clearly not so conventional if that makes sense. I fully expect this to hug the coast more initially and then get captured and "semi-stall" a smidge east of Cape Cod. Makes a lot of sense to me. It'll really be interesting to see how this plays out. 20-30 degree temp differential between airmass and ocean will set up some interesting forcing effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I like the general idea of 4-8" for W SNE and 8-12" from far NE CT/N RI into much of eastern MA and S NH. Still think that banding (likely two bands) will prove to be wildcards and could result in locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Accuweather has had 4-8 for this area for a last two days and is in line with the local forcast which I believe is in line with the EURO would be sad if accuweather was actually right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ukie is still the driest of the guidance but it's an improvement from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't think I've ever seen tags move that fast through North Dakota on the satellite loop like I'm seeing tonight. It's actually kind of scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Americans FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't think I've ever seen tags move that fast through North Dakota on the satellite loop like I'm seeing tonight. It's actually kind of scarywhat do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GGEM is also terrible, if it's right, NYC gets more snow than BOS(0.4" QPF vs 0.3"). It's the GFS vs. the world at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I really feel like what the GFS is keying on is a "positive feedback loop", where the strong upper levels and super cold air aloft and with a closed H5 low creates a system where it manufactures its own baroclinic zone right off the Jersey coast. And as it grows stronger and stronger it creates more instability ahead of it. And eventually gets captured by the H5 low as it occludes and begins to stack in the vertical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't think I've ever seen tags move that fast through North Dakota on the satellite loop like I'm seeing tonight. It's actually kind of scary Tags? Can you elaborate? Interested to hear what implication this has. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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