HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Harvey going 12"+ basically inside of 128 ont he 11pm newscast...and the south shore that sticks out. Essex county of course too. 8-12 for ORH up through ASH and down to E CT. He is a true Patriot, going with the American Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm almost tempted to stay up for von Euro. But tomorrow is Valentine's Day, and I must be full of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 He is a true Patriot, going with the American I don't mind his forecast...I've been pimping the MLs in this one from the get-go. He's probably thinking the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This could certainly help atone for some of its past sins if the GFS could pull of the coup here. Amazing how the GFS is playing the role of the Euro. Very strange indeed. If this verifies, the new GFS will certainly have gained some well deserved respect, despite the naysayers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 About one hour and a half should tell many if the GFS has been taking or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 He is a true Patriot, going with the American Harv has been bullish on this one all along. The GFS is a huge, huge problem for all of SNE. I mean...that's a major transportation issue for almost all of SNE. (and of course N&E). Far different animal than what is expected right now. So....what do the experts think? Buy the GFS and push blizzard warnings into central MA, CT and RI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't mind his forecast...I've been pimping the MLs in this one from the get-go. He's probably thinking the same. Yup. You have been steadfast. This storm has been very educational for me thanks to many of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm just finding this mesolow feature the RGEM continues to show on the coastal front here in Cumberland County ME around midnight tomorrow night fascinating. The GFS now has this feature in the same location too. 3 and 6 hour qpf amounts are pretty disgusting as strong southeast inflow rips into this thing. You can even see the circulation in the wind barbs at 06z tomorrow night on the RGEM shown in the image below. The color image is the 3-hour qpf...in which the green is greater than 0.5" in 3 hours with a max of 0.70 over Freeport, ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That picture of Eastport looks like most S Shore towns right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Novice question here but there is a lot of cold dry air pressing S, why should there be any confidence for warning snows W or ORH? You can't scratch your head tonight at my house w/o getting static shocked. Cold and dry seems entrenched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So you believe all of SNE gets a blizzard? Hey I hope it happens, it clobbers everyone. But given the situation, I'll take the RGEM, and NAM together. If the EUro suddenly comes way west, hats off to everyone that thought this was a regionwide blizzard like the 0z GFS. why are the NAM and RGEM not blizzards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Serious question: if the GFS or something near it verifies, when do people think the MBTA opens again ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Harvey going 12"+ basically inside of 128 ont he 11pm newscast...and the south shore that sticks out. Essex county of course too. 8-12 for ORH up through ASH and down to E CT. Where have you guys seen this before this winter, night of, things become clearer, Harvey goes all in and we know why. This pattern will not be denied. I just can"t believe the intensity this year, the baroclinicity of cold is never to be discounted and yes a lot to do with the pond and Jamess stream. The reason we did not give up on the pattern was seeing how cold and how deep that cold was in Canada. I really don"t see very much change for the next 4+ weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Harv has been bullish on this one all along. The GFS is a huge, huge problem for all of SNE. I mean...that's a major transportation issue for almost all of SNE. (and of course N&E). Far different animal than what is expected right now. So....what do the experts think? Buy the GFS and push blizzard warnings into central MA, CT and RI? I don't think I'd go blizzard warnings all the way back, but I'm more bullish for snow than the RGEM is, that is for sure. GFS might be a little too happy with the coverage of 1"+ qpf, but I like 8-12" for most ORH eastward with higher lollis in the usual spots like Essex county and probably down to BOS and Weymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So you believe all of SNE gets a blizzard? Hey I hope it happens, it clobbers everyone. But given the situation, I'll take the RGEM, and NAM together. If the EUro suddenly comes way west, hats off to everyone that thought this was a regionwide blizzard like the 0z GFS. The GFS doesn't show all of SNE getting a blizzard. Some won't even have the parameters to qualify for one. But three runs in a row showing such consistency while other modeling have not gives it more credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah Harvey is bullish...... Nice + sign after all the ranges too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Using rough ratio approximations of 12:1 (south coast) to 17:1 (ORH), here's one way to look at a forecast blend. Left number is an even EC/GFS/NAM/SREF/RGEM split. The right number weighs the RGEM 2x. Obviously, given "trends," this is only a snapshot based off of recent guidance and the ratios plugged in: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 About one hour and a half should tell many if the GFS has been taking pfftff.GIF or notif euro holds I'm leaning GFS/nam/rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm just finding this mesolow feature the RGEM continues to show on the coastal front here in Cumberland County ME around midnight tomorrow night fascinating. The GFS now has this feature in the same location too. 3 and 6 hour qpf amounts are pretty disgusting as strong southeast inflow rips into this thing. You can even see the circulation in the wind barbs at 06z tomorrow night on the RGEM shown in the image below. The color image is the 3-hour qpf...in which the green is greater than 0.5" in 3 hours with a max of 0.70 over Freeport, ME. Mega cool, almost looks like a meso on the North end of a convergence line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Serious question: if the GFS or something near it verifies, when do people think the MBTA opens again ? June. In all seriousness, it's already closed Sunday. It'll probably run Monday regardless for political reasons, but expect it to be a massive cluster**** Monday and then probably ugly Tuesday also. And then we get hit again Tuesday night into Wednesday? Maybe June is a legitimate answer after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Mega cool, almost looks like a meso on the North end of a convergence line Exactly what it is. Almost like a triple point of sorts. You can really cash in on something like this...but OTOH you can lose out by just a few short miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 June. In all seriousness, it's already closed Sunday. It'll probably run Monday regardless, but expect it to be a massive cluster**** Monday and then probably ugly Tuesday also. And then we get hit again Tuesday night into Wednesday? Maybe June is a legitimate answer after all... Jay's Boston apocolypse scenario becomes more realistic for me if BOS goes 12"+ here and then another 8"+ on Wednesday...though this is a bit off topic. At any rate, the Euro is the model to wait for...I don't expect the GGEM to show much given the RGEM wasn't that great (though a definite imporvement over 18z)....Ukie has been way north with the all the Mid-level stuff...so I don't expect much, though it will probably finally come south a bit is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm just finding this mesolow feature the RGEM continues to show on the coastal front here in Cumberland County ME around midnight tomorrow night fascinating. The GFS now has this feature in the same location too. 3 and 6 hour qpf amounts are pretty disgusting as strong southeast inflow rips into this thing. You can even see the circulation in the wind barbs at 06z tomorrow night on the RGEM shown in the image below. The color image is the 3-hour qpf...in which the green is greater than 0.5" in 3 hours with a max of 0.70 over Freeport, ME.Awesome stuff...thanks for posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 June. In all seriousness, it's already closed Sunday. It'll probably run Monday regardless for political reasons, but expect it to be a massive cluster**** Monday and then probably ugly Tuesday also. And then we get hit again Tuesday night into Wednesday? Maybe June is a legitimate answer after all... Monday is a holiday so maybe it won't be that bad?It ultimately depends on how much snow they get. Anything over 16" and Monday is in jeopardy for running service. 0z GFS could get to that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Serious question: if the GFS or something near it verifies, when do people think the MBTA opens again ? This isn't a paste job snow for Boston, light and fluffy which helps plus the T has the luxury of offering limited service Monday due to holiday and then back to full service Tuesday. I know there has been a lot of snow already but Boston is not shutting down, even with 12"-18", trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Serious question: if the GFS or something near it verifies, when do people think the MBTA opens again ? In March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Watch models trend stronger with upper levels all day tomorrow. Like Will was saying earlier today, it didn't make sense to weaken the upper levels as this hit the coast and even the GFS which has the most QPF was doing that. Now for the first time in like 3 runs, it pops a 498dm contour at H5 right over NYC. I expect that to trend stronger over the next 12 to 18 hours before it hits the coast and then BOOM. I mean the GEFs had a much much stronger ULL than the OP run, so that to me was a red flag in downplaying the development as this hits the coast. And I don't think a conventional baroclinic zone with this system will workout like the Canadian guidance and NAM have been doing until half caving tonight. This is such a powerhouse and so cold aloft that it pretty much makes its own unstable baroclinic zone right off the coast as it hits the waters south of LI. Remember this is a "polar low" not a huge UL trough filled with pockets of S/Ws ala the January Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Monday is a holiday so maybe it won't be that bad? It ultimately depends on how much snow they get. Anything over 16" and Monday is in jeopardy for running service. 0z GFS could get to that level. Wouldn't mind another law school snowday, we only close if MBTA shut . 3 snow days so far this month, 2 snow days since 1978 until this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS after doubling down at 18z...just double downed again. They split their blackjack hand and got double downs on each split.... THis... I was amazed when I saw the GFS.. Hope you all shatter every record up there. Been fun tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Geez little cleanup time, warnings may never come dow with blowing snow an issue Monday morning and another winter storm starting Tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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