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Super Snow Sunday


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Dont jump the gun boys. Blending is still a good idea but the pathetic bone dry runs just didn't jive with H5.

 

 

Well the NAM and RGEM alreayd both half-caved at 00z...but the full cave makes a big difference. A half-cave is still that 6-10 type deal ORH-eastward. Maybe a bit less on the RGEM...more like 4-8.

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Well the NAM and RGEM alreayd both half-caved at 00z...but the full cave makes a big difference. A half-cave is still that 6-10 type deal ORH-eastward. Maybe a bit less on the RGEM...more like 4-8.

I know we're zeroing in, but I'd still be very curious to see how the 00z Euro trends/caves.

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I'm not all in yet, but I'm definitely counting my chips and considering increasing my bet after that GFS run.

 

Here's how I see it.

  • At 12z, all the guidance except the GFS goes east despite having arguably better looks in the midlevels. GFS is assumed out to lunch.
  • At 18z, all the guidance except the GFS goes way further east despite having similar or better looks aloft. GFS is consistent, and now raises some eyebrows.
  • At 0z, all the guidance to date has now come back substantially west with a similar look aloft to the 18z run. GFS holds, but now has the other guidance trending towards it and arguably some support from the other guidance with the midlevel look.

One can argue that the GFS is "seeing" the potential in the midlevels while the other models are not and that having the others trend towards it validates that the GFS is at least not completely clueless. I can't commit to it 100% because it's still a fairly large outlier, but I have a lot more eggs in it's basket than I did at 18z today.

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Just watching the radar coming over the great lakes and OH/PA. Seems as though the heavier precip is slightly further SW than some of the modeling and the approach looks is slightly different angle. It'd be interesting to see where this exists offshore on the transfer. If it happens further south may give us a better chance for this to Bomb over the BM/earlier.

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I know we're zeroing in, but I'd still be very curious to see how the 00z Euro trends/caves.

 

 

Yeah I would too...it's a pretty big difference right now. We aren't 60 hours out anymore...this is a 30-36 hour forecast for the important part of the storm (the models are in decent agreement on the WAA stuff tomorrow afternoon)

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Right, looking for the nail in the coffin for the GFS to fail.

 

So you believe all of SNE gets a blizzard?  Hey I hope it happens, it clobbers everyone.

 

But given the situation, I'll take the RGEM, and NAM together.   If the EUro suddenly comes way west, hats off to everyone that thought this was a regionwide blizzard like the 0z GFS.

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So you believe all of SNE gets a blizzard?  Hey I hope it happens, it clobbers everyone.

 

But given the situation, I'll take the RGEM, and NAM together.   If the EUro suddenly comes way west, hats off to everyone that thought this was a regionwide blizzard like the 0z GFS.

I highly doubt I get a blizzard in this area...no matter what the GFS says
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i hope its right i kind of want to see how the public reacts  :lmao:

So you believe all of SNE gets a blizzard?  Hey I hope it happens, it clobbers everyone.

 

But given the situation, I'll take the RGEM, and NAM together.   If the EUro suddenly comes way west, hats off to everyone that thought this was a regionwide blizzard like the 0z GFS.

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