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Valentine's Day weekend storm discussion part 2


Sickman

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2/13 12z Summary for Sat PM (2/14) - Sun AM (2/15) Storm

 

QPF NYC (TTN - NYC)   12:1 ratios with winds.  

 

SREF:  0.15 - 0.30  (2 - 5 inches)

NAM: 0.15 - 0.40  (2 - 6  inches)

RGEM:  0.25 - 0.50   (3 - 6 inches)

GFS: 0.10 - 0.25  ( 1 - 3 inches)

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The NAM was the only model to correctly foresee that pocket of heavy snow in the mid-Hudson Valley yesterday, and it seems to have done fairly well with mesoscale features in general this winter (hence its name, I suppose). I don't see any reason to oppose its inverted trough depiction, though obviously QPF may be overdone.

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The NAM was the only model to correctly foresee that pocket of heavy snow in the mid-Hudson Valley yesterday, and it seems to have done fairly well with mesoscale features in general this winter (hence its name, I suppose). I don't see any reason to oppose its inverted trough depiction, though obviously QPF may be overdone.

It has all been very consistent with putting that band of snow over the same area through ELI through WCT and into parts of SNY through several of its recent runs

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Unless I'm mistaken,the upgraded gfs, does fairly well to a certain time period, then sends to get a little bonkers lol.

Upton upped there totals at 938 btw 6-8 now over parts of east end.

Chances of blizzard warning for parts of long island? How many hours of high winds are we looking at? ( winds that are within the blizzard requirements)

Last question,side I only now have gotten on to check updates, suppose to have Valentine's diner at girl friends parents house Saturday night, 5 or 6 pm. What would a rough guess time wise for eastern long island late afternoon/ evening?

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It's simple. The optimists are rooting for the GEM (which has far more support) and the negativos are rooting for the GFS. It's pretty simple. I'm admittedly a snow lover, so I hope the GEM wins. But I remain dumbfounded as to where people get this GFS is awesome feeling from. It was right (sort of) for the blizzard bust, but was otherwise terrible this season. It's selective memory.

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