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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


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The model is just wrong, b/c that sounding would be snow. The NAM appears to have nailed the profile again. It's horrible on precip fields, but warm noses it does well... I attached a bufkit nam sounding from 18z for gso at 6pm below:

 

Thank you.  Makes sense.  I guess I should give greater preference towards the NAM's temperatures profiles going forward.

 

Man, it's frustrating to have it like the arctic tundra at the surface, but not even be able to get below freezing in the mid-levels.  Oh, well.  We should still do well with sleet, I suppose.  We had somewhere between 1/4-1/2" of snow before the changeover.

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Thank you. Makes sense. I guess I should give greater preference towards the NAM's temperatures profiles going forward.

Man, it's frustrating to have it like the arctic tundra at the surface, but not even be able to get below freezing in the mid-levels. Oh, well. We should still do well with sleet, I suppose. We had somewhere between 1/4-1/2" of snow before the changeover.

Yea from living up north the Nam which used to be the infamous ETA and I do miss that model a lot, has always been far superior in regards to low level resolution and damming events. Loved using it for impending snow and ice situations with shallow arctic boundaries and intrusions that would flow down from the St. Lawrence Valley into the northeast. Had some of our best ice storms that the nam would nail before any other model.
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I'm sure they will be expanding warnings in their next update... quite clear most of the northern upstate is going to be stuck in FZRA for the duration of this event with possible ice accretion in the .75 to 1.0" range.

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

455 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION

WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE MID

ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT

WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD HIGH

PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A

MOIST SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 5 PM...SFC TEMPS VERY SLOW TO RESPOND OVER THE LAKELANDS AND

SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN BECAUSE OF WET BULB EFFECTS STILL KEEPING TEMPS

SUPPRESSED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS WITH FALLING PRECIP. GETTING

SEVERAL REPORTS OF ICING FROM THE GREENWOOD/ABBEVILLE AREA...SO HAVE

ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA

THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THINK TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY 8 PM

OVER THE LAKELANDS. THE REST OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL

CONTINUE UNCHANGED.

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There's no hole. There wasn't supposed to be precip there. The fact that the Triangle got anything at all speaks to the south trend of the northern tongue of precip that was supposed to be in southern VA only.

Thanks man. I saw your post in the other thread and didn't come back and delete this one. I'm with RDU though. If it's gonna flip to zr quickly, I'm fine with less precip. Wonder if we stay alert longer and avoid the big ice down here....

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Thanks man. I saw your post in the other thread and didn't come back and delete this one. I'm with RDU though. If it's gonna flip to zr quickly, I'm fine with less precip. Wonder if we stay alert longer and avoid the big ice down here....

CR your going to get in the action soon. There are returns pushing in fast from the SW. I'm more afraid for your location than others for getting the most freezing rain. But as you said hopefully that will not happen.

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Thanks man. I saw your post in the other thread and didn't come back and delete this one. I'm with RDU though. If it's gonna flip to zr quickly, I'm fine with less precip. Wonder if we stay alert longer and avoid the big ice down here....

 

Still not buying the flip to majority of freezing rain, maybe 50/50.   But if it does probably better we get precip holed.  I do think the RAP has a good handle on  the heaviest band will be.  We are missing the one to the north now and will miss one south of overnight.  That band to the south could be crippling, and will be, if it verifies.  We are still on target for 0.5" or precip, not counting what has already fallen.  So, maybe a 1/4" of sleet with 0.25" of freezing rain for us.

 

Yikes...FAY to PGV could be without power for awhile.

post-2311-0-29983500-1424129162_thumb.pn

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

455 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 5 PM...SFC TEMPS VERY SLOW TO RESPOND OVER THE LAKELANDS AND

SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN BECAUSE OF WET BULB EFFECTS STILL KEEPING TEMPS

SUPPRESSED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS WITH FALLING PRECIP. GETTING

SEVERAL REPORTS OF ICING FROM THE GREENWOOD/ABBEVILLE AREA...SO HAVE

ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA

THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THINK TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY 8 PM

OVER THE LAKELANDS. THE REST OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL

CONTINUE UNCHANGED.

 

I'd like to see their reasoning for this statement... 

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Still not buying the flip to majority of freezing rain, maybe 50/50.   But if it does probably better we get precip holed.  I do think the RAP has a good handle on  the heaviest band will be.  We are missing the one to the north now and will miss one south of overnight.  That band to the south could be crippling, and will be, if it verifies.  We are still on target for 0.5" or precip, not counting what has already fallen.  So, maybe a 1/4" of sleet with 0.25" of freezing rain for us.

 

Yikes...FAY to PGV could be without power for awhile.

Pack, I wouldn't much into any model output at this time. Even if that occurred that hole is most likely at the high end of the .5 to .75 range. .75 of freezing rain is really bad...

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Still not buying the flip to majority of freezing rain, maybe 50/50. But if it does probably better we get precip holed. I do think the RAP has a good handle on the heaviest band will be. We are missing the one to the north now and will miss one south of overnight. That band to the south could be crippling, and will be, if it verifies. We are still on target for 0.5" or precip, not counting what has already fallen. So, maybe a 1/4" of sleet with 0.25" of freezing rain for us.

Yikes...FAY to PGV could be without power for awhile.

We always seem to find the precip min. You stand a better chance of more sleet than me. By a mile.

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Pack, I wouldn't much into any model output at this time. Even if that occurred that hole is most likely at the high end of the .5 to .75 range. .75 of freezing rain is really bad...

 

Well I am thinking half and half, so let's say 0.35 is sleet, roughly 1" of sleet accumulation, then 0.3" of freezing rain.  It's a bad ice storm, what they see south of us is going to be a disaster, if they see 1"+ QPF.  Cold Rain is toeing the line with that banding too.

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We always seem to find the precip min. You stand a better chance of more sleet than me. By a mile.

 

Its already 60% rain here already temp down to 24 on my porch.........looks like we get a break though then the energy coming up firing the showers south or RDU near Fayettteville should start the real show DP is finally above 0 its made it to 3 lol.......

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The radar is impressive..I like looking at the hi-res one from NOAA...

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

 

Looks like a firehose out of the Gulf.  Looks like heavy sleet is in our future.  Fun to be out in.  :pimp:

 

Too bad the snow is done, but I don't see any reason we can't verify the forecast with sleet at this point.

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