RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 2-4 statewide 5-6 HVN south my thinking You're like the nam, cut your totals by 1/3 and there we have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I like s ct /se ri and over to messenger /cape maybe "cj" areas. That 50/50 is shunting stuff w to e as precip gets toward south coast. Nam was further S with inv trough action wed pm and night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I want this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I want this..... SnowAmt90Prcntl.png I wanted Gisele at one point too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z rpm is 2 to 4 for most with 4 to 6 immediate e ma coast. Seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM has a nice hang back look in SE areas despite QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snowy day(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM has a nice hang back look in SE areas despite QPF.My eyes are on that norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I want this..... SnowAmt90Prcntl.png Wouldn't that be nice. It would make up for what I missed out on over the weekend. I'd be happy with 4 inches. BOX seem to be holding off on the advisories, and while I expect them to be issued, as bullish as some are on here, there seems to be some thought that it could be on the lower end with a more southern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 My eyes are on that norlun. NAM trying to bring it west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM has a nice hang back look in SE areas despite QPF. Yeah, that inverted trough is close by so it will need to be watched from CC up into ME. NAM seems to like it further S than the globals do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like a PWM special with the inv trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I won't get invested in the Norlun until inside 24 hrs after this last debacle up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Even some signs it sneaks into E LI up into SE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nice read this AM. TUESDAY...CONVINCED A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE INVOKES AN INFLECTION-POINT LOW ALONGTHE OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE SWEEPING SW-NE S AND E OF THE 40N/70WBENCHMARK AS THE LOW UNDERGOES MATURATION. AN OVER-RUNNING ALL-SNOWEVENT. 15:1 TO 20:1 SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS CORROBORATED WITH STORM-TOTAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.3 TO 0.1 S-N. AN ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT OF AROUND 2-4 INCHES MAINLY S AND E OF HARTFORD-BOSTON.ISOLATED HIGHER 6+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-SHORELINEOF NEW ENGLAND. SHARP N-S GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS YET COULD SEESOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS SE MA WITH A COASTAL-FRONT SETUP.SO WHATS THE HOLD UP WITH ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY? WELL ASLIGHT N-S WOBBLE OF THE SYSTEM COULD EASILY CHANGE OUTCOMES ACROSSCT/RI/MA. AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER SEASON...SOMETIMES CERTAINTIESIN A FORECAST ARE NOT NAILED DOWN UNTIL 12-24 HOURS OUT. AS THISFORECAST DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING SUB-ADVISORY /NOT RULINGOUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW/ AND A POSSIBLE BUST...WILL GIVE THE DAY-CREW TO EVALUATE THE FORECAST AND MAKE A FINAL CALL.TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHAT IS INTERESTING WITH THIS LATEST FORECAST IS THE PRESENCE OF ALINGERING LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-TROUGH IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM OUTLINEDABOVE. SIGNALS OF A CLASSIC NORLUN-TROUGH SETUP AS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED COLD-POOL STREAM SE ACROSS THE REGIONINVOKING AN UNSTABLE PROFILE BENEATH WHICH AIR CONVERGES ALONG THETROUGH. MODERATE NARROW-BANDING OF SNOW ALONG THE TROUGH-AXIS ASMOISTURE IS DRAWN NW ALONG THE 275K SURFACE CAPTURED BY FEATURESALOFT. ATTRIBUTABLE FORCING / INSTABILITY JUST AS STRONG AS WITH THECOASTAL FRONT THAT DUMPED 12-22 INCHES IN PORTSMOUTH NH SATURDAYNIGHT /PER PERSONAL COMMUNICATION WITH WEIR LUNDSTEDT...ONE OF THEPRIMARY RESEARCHERS OF NORLUN TROUGHS/. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONECLOSELY.PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TROUGH LOCATION / PLACEMENT ARETRICKY...BUT TYPICALLY THE MID-COAST OF MAINE ISCLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED. YET THERE IS SOME CONCERN AS FAR S AS NEMA.ENSEMBLE-MEMBER SOLUTIONS EXHIBITING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD INDICATINGTHE LACK ANYTHING WELL-ORGANIZED. INDIVIDUAL CENTRAL PRESSURES ARETYPICAL / NON-ANOMALOUS. CONFIDENCE GAINED TOWARDS A NORLUN-TROUGH SETUP MORESO OVER ANOTHER STRONG STORM SETUP. LETS HOPE ITSTAYS THAT WAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Models have like a 400mb deep dendritic growth zone for this storm lol Fair to say dendrites are likely lol. dendrites being dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I want this..... SnowAmt90Prcntl.png Box maps have been pretty good, at least for my area this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 LOL Marty Walsh having to tell people to STOP JUMPING OUT WINDOWS into snowbanks at his presser right now. He says stop acting like little kids, knock it off! Darwinism there Ginxy at it's finest. NAM looked fine. Scott is probably right...4" is a good bet here barring a major change, 3-6 or 4-8. Probably will see an ORHWXMAN type band on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This looks like it slipping away to less than a inch NW of PVD-BOS and prob more alligned NW of IJD-GHG as well...thou S shore will see some CJ enhancement and /Essex may be lucky to see some OES up to cape ann Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This looks like it slipping away to less than a inch NW of PVD-BOS and Maybe NW of IJD-GHG as wellLol couldn't disagree more. What are you possibly basing that on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This looks like it slipping away to less than a inch NW of PVD-BOS and Maybe NW of IJD-GHG as well Max made some great points....he hit it meteorologically when I was dumbing it down. The s/w is more amplified initially but it runs into the shredder. We need the 50/50 to slip away a bit like it's done many times this winter late in modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM looks like C-1" for most. It is closer to the coast with the inv trough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 No Pike http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html The wildcard is going to be the little meso low that develops on the trough. Most models have had this to some degree all along. Right now maybe it clips Cape Anne per the models...but it's darn close and given what we just saw....this is another nightmare for Portland NWS and even Boston. If that thing spins up near or over land someone will be measuring with the big ruler again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM looks like C-1" for most. It is closer to the coast with the inv trough though. Looks like it hammers Cape Ann for a few hours...or is very very close. The meso then spins up towards Portland. based on what we saw of how the models handled a similar feature in the polar air....the fact that it's that "strong" on these runs is alarming. It could be a harmlessly impressive spin over the water, or it could be 1-3" per hour snows over a small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like it hammers Cape Ann for a few hours...or is very very close. The meso then spins up towards Portland. based on what we saw of how the models handled a similar feature in the polar air....the fact that it's that "strong" on these runs is alarming. It could be a harmlessly impressive spin over the water, or it could be 1-3" per hour snows over a small area. Yeah I just saw the later panels. That nails Essex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You're like the nam, cut your totals by 1/3 and there we have it. LOL. Hoping for 2 here, but RGEM is suggesting maybe 1. Hard to go against the RGEM, it's been decent this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lol couldn't disagree more. What are you possibly basing that on? I meant to type 10" on a line from IJD-GHG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like it hammers Cape Ann for a few hours...or is very very close. The meso then spins up towards Portland. based on what we saw of how the models handled a similar feature in the polar air....the fact that it's that "strong" on these runs is alarming. It could be a harmlessly impressive spin over the water, or it could be 1-3" per hour snows over a small area. That's Wed pm, right? Best Potential for NE mass is with that, not this low grazing OTS Thou could be a York Maine to Cape Elizabeth Special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM looks like C-1" for most. It is closer to the coast with the inv trough though. We know how qpf works by now. 2-4 seems the best idea for the region..Still a zone of higher amounts somewhere from HVN up thru PVD or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I won't get invested in the Norlun until inside 24 hrs after this last debacle up here Once bitten.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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