Lava Rock Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This inverted trough is bad timing for us too. Naturally hard to predict, but talking about uncertainty and low confidence forecasts just sounds like being gun shy from last event that whiffed everything from Portland north.Todd gutner saying 6"+ possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I know, but you and I both know ME can cash in later in Feb and Mar. I'm sure at some point you guys will get wrecked while I rain.Be pretty funny the pattern flips soon and we go high and dry rest of winter. Early spring to boot. Possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Todd gutner saying 6"+ possible. I think 6+ is likely given the set up. I just don't know where that will be. I broad brushed the forecast a little this morning because of the lead time and uncertainty, but with time we should be able to narrow the goal posts and up the snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Be pretty funny the pattern flips soon and we go high and dry rest of winter. Early spring to boot. Possible? I don't see early Spring at all right now. Obviously as we get later into the season we will have mild days, but I don't see a pattern flip to early Spring..however climo is making headway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ryan's station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ryan's station That's probably the RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think 6+ is likely given the set up. I just don't know where that will be. I broad brushed the forecast a little this morning because of the lead time and uncertainty, but with time we should be able to narrow the goal posts and up the snowfall totals. Greate AFD. And I appreciate what you posted earlier about the possible perception that your office is being gun-shy based on what happened yesterday. Plus most of the public don't understand what the heck an inverted trough is, and assume that all our signifcant snows come from noreasters riding up the coast; must make it difficult to articulate the nature of the uncertainty. Looked to me like the 6z models backed off a bit. What did the Euro show for QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Greate AFD. And I appreciate what you posted earlier about the possible perception that your office is being gun-shy based on what happened yesterday. Plus most of the public don't understand what the heck an inverted trough is, and assume that all our signifcant snows come from noreasters riding up the coast; must make it difficult to articulate the nature of the uncertainty. Looked to me like the 6z models backed off a bit. What did the Euro show for QPF? Euro was around a half inch for PWM, same general area though. 06z did back off a bit, but even still as modeled it's a pretty strong signal. Even a half inch QPF would be low end warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This. Plus this last one stung a bit. Tied for last year up to this point. The last one definitely stung. We've had a good winter no doubt, but that one hurt. Nobody had a chance of predicting that from happening Portland north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Phil Frigid Monday, Snow Likely Tuesday February 16, 2015By Phil0 Comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This cycle of big storm weekend/Monday and little storm 2 or 3 days later is getting just silly at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 All models tonight are speeding up this thing and that is not good for us up here because that monster 50/50 Low is just acting like a buzz saw and preventing this little SWFE from coming north. Maybe they are too fast with it and will adjust north at 12z but I'm not liking the trends for up here with this one. Congrats Richmond and DC up to maybe central Jersey. General 6 to 12 for them because this thing is hauling. More eloquent way of saying what I was trying to say during the 0z nam. Models look better to start but the speed is a problem on the overnight runs as it gets here so fast it's shunned east of NYC. Models have had issues wirh the 50/50 all year so hopefully that's about to happen again. I will go with 1-3 here now maybe 2-4 wirh crazy ratios. For the sensitive weenies that's a forecast for MBY not yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 More eloquent way of saying what I was trying to say during the 0z nam. Models look better to start but the speed is a problem on the overnight runs as it gets here so fast it's shunned east of NYC. Models have had issues wirh the 50/50 all year so hopefully that's about to happen again. I will go with 1-3 here now maybe 2-4 wirh crazy ratios. For the sensitive weenies that's a forecast for MBY not yours. I think 4 is a lock for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 1" here is my call. I will take it Moving on to Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Models have like a 400mb deep dendritic growth zone for this storm lol Fair to say dendrites are likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Most outlets, incl NWS, must be expecting an extreme fluff job with this one as I'm not seeing models spitting out much more that 0.10-0.25" for most of us. Fine by me, won't compact the stuff below too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Models have like a 400mb deep dendritic growth zone for this storm lol Fair to say dendrites are likely No kidding. And no wind too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 With the vort track I will stand by this till I die. There willbe a stripe of 3-6 or 4-8 with this. And not necc the south coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Most outlets, incl NWS, must be expecting an extreme fluff job with this one as I'm not seeing models spitting out much more that 0.10-0.25" for most of us. Fine by me, won't compact the stuff below too much.white gold then brutal cold,hard to believe how low the heights are again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 No kidding. And no wind too. Chance it will be like Sat night WAA stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 With the vort track I will stand by this till I die. There willbe a stripe of 3-6 or 4-8 with this. And not necc the south coastvort tracking south of projections though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Chance it will be like Sat night WAA stuff? Maybe not as robust. That had a bit more going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Kevin I do think this is like 25-1 stuff ,yet another cold ULL globe snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 With the vort track I will stand by this till I die. There willbe a stripe of 3-6 or 4-8 with this. And not necc the south coast Meh - the setup is pretty ugly. Most areas will probably struggle to get more than 1 or 2" from this. Moisture starved and only meager lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Kevin I do think this is like 25-1 stuff ,yet another cold ULL globe snow I wouldn't be surprised if this pulled off 20:1 kind of ratios at least - but many areas may only be talking about ~0.05" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised if this pulled off 20:1 kind of ratios at least - but many areas may only be talking about ~0.05" of liquid.SECT special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SECT special I would also think that there will be some dry air to overcome so we may waste some moisture on that end. 1-3"/2-4" right now would be my call from MA/NH/VT border on S with the highest totals on CC. This does not include any inverted trough action. That looks reserved for coastal ME on north right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 vort tracking south of projections though?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Meh - the setup is pretty ugly. Most areas will probably struggle to get more than 1 or 2" from this. Moisture starved and only meager lift.2-4 statewide 5-6 HVN south my thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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