Arnold214 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Really 4-7? My guess is 8-12 at least as I think there's going to be a nice deformation band over most of CT..If the GFS is right..and of course that's a big if..the track of the mid level lows is ideal for massive dump here...but yeah the wind aspect of this has me super excited. Funny things can certainly happen under such a strong upper level low. But my hunch is that organized banding will be a tad to your east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Based on the current model trends, what's everyone's best educated guess for the best/most impressive impact in Massachusetts? I'm thinking Cape Cod to Cape Ann. Not opposed to driving as far as Cape Elizabeth, ME, if it would be worth the 950 mile drive. As it stands now, I'm leaving Wilmington, NC by 3 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 i dunno, still 24 hrs to go, canadians havent made too many mistakes recently....i thought they did well with the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 RGEM was definitely a bit deeper with the trough. But it's not like the Euro is ugly...it has the closed H5 low comfortably south of LI Run after run with the mid levels going south of LI. I just hope folks realize what that means and don't look at qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Latex BOX map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Latex BOX map: image.jpg Looks spot on with guidance. IF the EURO somehow caves to the GFS today I think everything is bumped up one shade. Don't expect that though, so this could be a solid final call from BOX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks spot on with guidance. IF the EURO somehow caves to the GFS today I think everything is bumped up one shade. Don't expect that though, so this could be a solid final call from BOX. I agree, but wouldn't be surprised with that 8-10 area coming further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS has come south and west every single run the last 2 days with the 500. Still continuing now..Goes with what we mentioned about northern stream systems typically trend south . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Latex BOX map: image.jpg No watch here. I was going to guess around 6" for here before seeing that map (same I had guessed yesterday afternoon). Appears I may not be far off. I still think eastern areas will sneak in more than that. I only have 24hour increments on the EC (yuck). But on the GFS, is there any indication it might have a heavier deformation band out this way? My guess is that would likely be more north of here. Apologies for the weenie mby question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 CT Light & Power folks in Three Little Pigs mode. Preparations are on par with those for the blizzard a few weeks back. 91E is a big concern for them with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The power crews are going to have a heckuva time restoring things when they go down. Winds, cold a huge issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The map is definitely pretty conservative. RGEM should be helpful today and very important tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Here's BOX's max potential map. Their low potential limits GC to about 2.5" and NE Mass around 4". Wouldn't that latter be a bummer! lol -2.9/-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Can't remember the last time DIT was so excited over the GFS. Now you know this is a special winter as the usual rules aren't applying. Good model battle and the opposite of the Blizzard with the GFS more west with the banding and EURO northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I am sure Ginx could answer this, but how are the tides running Sat/Sun in eastern NE; are there any coastal flooding concerns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Have to watch out for the RGEM holding onto the dual low structure, as it may be a real signal. Obviously have to watch for things to trend in the other direction, though factors affecting the trend as somewhat different that the storm in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Can't remember the last time DIT was so excited over the GFS. Now you know this is a special winter as the usual rules aren't applying. Good model battle and the opposite of the Blizzard with the GFS more west with the banding and EURO northeast. When it's the one that gives you reason to hype, ride it hard and toss the rest. -3.2/-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack66 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It looks like the RGEM at 06z has it digging down to the DelmarVA at 48hrs. looking at the satellite depiction on TTbits. Hope this is a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I dunno. GFS may be too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I dunno. GFS may be too far south. From this point on, I'm riding the RGEM with its recent hot hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I dunno. GFS may be too far south. Maybe. Not a lot of difference among the globals other than nuances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 From this point on, I'm riding the RGEM with its recent hot hand.might be too complex of a system to solely ride the rgem. My bet is fully euro. Agree GFS is likely too far south after seeing euro hold last night. I bet we see the GFS move towards euro at 12z. If not then I don't know what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The biggest deal for snow in eastern areas is the Sunday backlash. That's a very strong signal and one I'm always skeptical of but it seems like that's a lot of our snow. I just looked. At navgem and it shows it quite strongly. The should be a fun storm albeit probably what less snow than any of the past Monday systems ...which isn't saying much considering the baby of that group is like a foot and a half...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 might be too complex of a system to solely ride the rgem. My bet is fully euro. Agree GFS is likely too far south after seeing euro hold last night. I bet we see the GFS move towards euro at 12z. If not then I don't know what to think. I'd take the GFS. It brings warning snows out west. The EC, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Everyone's favorite model to hate, the JMA, looks a lot like the UKMET with how far north it is at h5. 0z Euro seems like a decent compromise right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS is pretty much the worst outcome in terms of conditions. 50-70 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Would you favor a blend right now? This winter has really shaken the order of the models in my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 6z still very good for BOS and EMA/RI. Not quite as good for further west. Little less tight. Slight shift east with features. Basically identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS is pretty much the worst outcome in terms of conditions. 50-70 mph winds.i definitely want the GFS to verify. But highly unlikely in my opinion. How much weight are you giving it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Everyone's favorite model to hate, the JMA, looks a lot like the UKMET with how far north it is at h5. 0z Euro seems like a decent compromise right now. When the euros in the middle of the guidance ride it hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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