PWMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 They may go later today in GYX's AFD or wait until the overnight shift My guess is they'll wait another shift in light of the timing and the fact that this parade of storms has caused some weariness and confusion among the public; constant storms and rumors of storms. May be better to wait until more details are nailed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just saw the euro. I thought it was a pretty good 700 and 500 look despite whatever QPF max and mins there are, esp ORH east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 yeah somebody should start a thread on that one.... Been done... closed for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just saw the euro. I thought it was a pretty good 700 and 500 look despite whatever QPF max and mins there are, esp ORH east. What's your first guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We really need the GGEM to be onto something, otherwise it's a flizzard for most of CT. .3" -.5" here with ratios is warning criteria snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I may have been more wrong than Al Gore about global warming. And I feel like Brian Williams right now after that Euro post It's obvious but worth re-stating: the model handling of the ULL placement and PVA will be in flux over next 24 hours. Just looking at surface reflections at hours 66-72, 12z Euro now has 2 surface lows at hour 66 one right under Long Island, and at hour 72 a southwest extension that was not apparent on 0z Euro. Pretty sure this will continue to evolve, and we are not far from something much bigger in eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 There are some nice gefs members that hit CT pretty well, though. So It wouldn't take much to get a statewide 6"++ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 When Hanny goes big on winds.. Watch out @ryanhanrahan: High impact winter storm expected Sat PM/Sun AM especially due to damaging winds Sunday morning. http://t.co/w3kYzgaBqB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just saw the euro. I thought it was a pretty good 700 and 500 look despite whatever QPF max and mins there are, esp ORH east. It looked a bit better than 00z despite slightly lower QPF for BOS metro..should be interesting to see what happens over the next 2 cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This post is the early clubhouse leader for post of the year right? I hope your right, but when did our expectations turn into the 100 hr storm? He is the most optimistic man in the world with his posts, a degree or two more than Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What's your first guess? For BOS? Without looking terribly hard..I feel higher confidence in 6-10. Yes it could be more, but I am not sold quite yet on 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 72 hr position on the Euro is about as perfect as it gets, bring them up kids, bring them up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Perhaps I've overlooked this, but does anyone know if these strong ULLs historically tend to dig more than guidance would suggest? Just seems to me like you send that kind of energy down a trough it's going to dig a lot more than has been shown. But then again, I'm an amateur. Perhaps I don't fully understand all the dynamics at play... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The GFS still shows the potential for good snows back this way with very strong omega around 850mb which is right around -15c. A nice snow growth bullseye showing up super low to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Who wants to do one of those station by station lists? The QPF/ratio thing is driving me nuts..... And yes, I want a mby.... but I'd really like to see the others, too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 For BOS? Without looking terribly hard..I feel higher confidence in 6-10. Yes it could be more, but I am not sold quite yet on 12+. That's sounds pretty reasonable based on what we know now. I of course want 11-12 to hit 90 by Pday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 72 hr position on the Euro is about as perfect as it gets, bring them up kids, bring them up My pants are up...this one isn't nude worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Who wants to do one of those station by station lists? The QPF/ratio thing is driving me nuts..... And yes, I want a mby.... but I'd really like to see the others, too.... You can. Have at it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It looked a bit better than 00z despite slightly lower QPF for BOS metro..should be interesting to see what happens over the next 2 cycles. Models are just bouncing back and forth with placing the surface low and it's screwing with the QPF depiction. We've seen it more than once in the past few coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That's sounds pretty reasonable based on what we know now. I of course want 11-12 to hit 90 by Pday. Right, it could be more...but if I had to give a higher confidence range...that would be it. I have more confidence in 12" than say 4-6"..put it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 When Hanny goes big on winds.. Watch out @ryanhanrahan: High impact winter storm expected Sat PM/Sun AM especially due to damaging winds Sunday morning. http://t.co/w3kYzgaBqB Just imagine hundreds of poles being knocked down onto tens of feet of piled up snow, along roads that are still impassable even to pedestrians. Outages for weeks if that occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Right, it could be more...but if I had to give a higher confidence range...that would be it. I have more confidence in 12" than say 4-6"..put it that way. Yeah upside potential is there but in my own observation it tends to stay on the table. However we're still 54 hours out so there's time for minor tweaks which could have big implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Models are just bouncing back and forth with placing the surface low and it's screwing with the QPF depiction. We've seen it more than once in the past few coastals. I think during the previous blizzard the euro wanted to make the western portion of the originally elongated low dominant but it ended up being the eastern portion.. Which of course than the RGEM nailed. So I guess we're going to see things bounce around in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The GFS still shows the potential for good snows back this way with very strong omega around 850mb which is right around -15c. A nice snow growth bullseye showing up super low to the ground. Nice job explaining things on the blog Ryan.....some good info there. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah the winds in CT and esp NYC look really awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I am looking at mid levels and I like it. But, there are some issues with how quickly it can start the inflow. Right now it looks a little late to get going to crush CT. I think it's 3-6" west of 91 and 5-10" east. with the high winds even 3-6 would be a show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is about 0.3"-0.5" of QPF for Connecticut. Not exactly a crusher here. Seems to take a while to get that TROWAL fired up and struggles to get best lift/moisture back this way. Being the anti-Roger, I'm doing an early call of 6" at the Pit. This could be something where even though we're being a little further north will have a bigger upside than the downside of being a little further west. Barring any significant changes, we'll have solid advisory/low warning as we look enviously toward the 495 belt/NE. I'll adjust accordingly after the 12z run tomorrow with a final call. If you're going to call it, make it a 48-hour call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You can. Have at it! OK, here goes. BOS 8-12 ORH 6-10 PVD 6-10 HFD 4-6 CEF 6-8 PVD 6-10 PYM 8-12 But there is no damn science in this since I don't get QPF/ratio stuff yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 can somebody post QPF output for the north country (i.e., whites, greens, in between?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We can probably start to look at the RGEM now, in terms of clues as to where it is headed. I think we need to invite RGEM to the 18z party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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