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Super Snow Sunday 2/15-Party Like it's 1717


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Disagree a 498 passing overhead is still going to be pretty sweet, you are looking for big qpf numbers, not me but heres some more pretty colors for you, Try to temper your enthusiasm you have been such a bundle of excitement since you missed the best storm of the year. From undah

A 498 Dm 500 mb low overhead will do nothing for me. I'll forget about it by next week.

I'm not debbying anything here just laying out appropriate caution flags. Still haven't had a good storm IMBY but that's not exactly clouding my forecasting.

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Hi everyone, i just want to say thank you, for the past few weeks, i and a co-worker have been putting in long hours snow plowing and removal, some mets on tv, i agree are pushing doomsday right now, i understand things change(tracks etc) but i always come to this site, for all opinions , and the most part you guys have been darn accurate on what areas will see more and less impact etc. Anyways thumbs up

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Hi everyone, i just want to say thank you, for the past few weeks, i and a co-worker have been putting in long hours snow plowing and removal, some mets on tv, i agree are pushing doomsday right now, i understand things change(tracks etc) but i always come to this site, for all opinions , and the most part you guys have been darn accurate on what areas will see more and less impact etc. Anyways thumbs up

Many talented pros and hobbyists.

Welcome, man.

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Quick Question...I'm supposed to be taking my girlfriend from Boston to Newport Saturday morning for Valentines day, and then back on Sunday mid afternoon. What are the odds of this even being feasible at this point? Am I likely screwed?

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Quick Question...I'm supposed to be taking my girlfriend from Boston to Newport Saturday morning for Valentines day, and then back on Sunday mid afternoon. What are the odds of this even being feasible at this point? Am I likely screwed?

Better than 50/50 you'll need a change of plans.

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Quick Question...I'm supposed to be taking my girlfriend from Boston to Newport Saturday morning for Valentines day, and then back on Sunday mid afternoon. What are the odds of this even being feasible at this point? Am I likely screwed?

 

I had no idea I could get this kind of advice here. Wow.

 

I'm gonna buy flowers and make dinner for my wife of 30 years Saturday. 1983 Bordeaux too! What do you guys think my odds are?

 

Thanks!

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Pretty colors.

If that ULL passes over KGON this storm is one hell of a bust for many. Need to get it south and get it to dig. An ULL over our fannies may be NB but pretty lame otherwise.

 

I have a little better shot being further east than you, but likewise I need to see "more" than just a historic ULL....the placement is such via consensus that to me it would primary favor N&E of even me...as the low stalls and we get pummeling winds, backlash, and probably 2-4 or 3-6.  

 

The system is beginning to sniff better sampling sites now, so maybe this is the "run" where we see the big dog bark....otherwise we can all enjoy the ULL

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I have a little better shot being further east than you, but likewise I need to see "more" than just a historic ULL....the placement is such via consensus that to me it would primary favor N&E of even me...as the low stalls and we get pummeling winds, backlash, and probably 2-4 or 3-6.  

 

The system is beginning to sniff better sampling sites now, so maybe this is the "run" where we see the big dog bark....otherwise we can all enjoy the ULL

:lol:

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This PV anomaly trucking out of the Arctic is mainly an upper level feature, with very little disturbance in the low levels initially.

 

We know we have a strong baroclinic zone setting up along the East Coast at the same time. The upper level PV anomaly will induce a cyclonic flow in the low levels. Cyclonic flow over a strong baroclinic zone initiates WAA on the east side, and CAA on the west side of the upper level anomaly. This develops cyclone formation in the low levels, which feeds back to the upper levels and strengthens in the upper disturbance.

 

So you can see how for a time these two features will be in sync with each other and allow for the rapid cyclogenesis being modeled.

 

Thank you! I mean that sincerely.

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Quick Question...I'm supposed to be taking my girlfriend from Boston to Newport Saturday morning for Valentines day, and then back on Sunday mid afternoon. What are the odds of this even being feasible at this point? Am I likely screwed?

If things work out, you should be screwed.

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I'll start getting excited when Albany begins to squawk.  That's certainly not happening yet. 

 

SATURDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES AND ONCE AGAIN...IT LOOKS AS IF
ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFER TO ANOTHER STORM SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND. IF THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS MORE QUICKLY...STEADY SNOW
COULD IMPACT MUCH OF OUR REGION...BUT RIGHT NOW OUR THINKING IS THAT
ANY STEADY SNOW WILL LIMITED TO ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
EITHER
WAY...IT WILL TURN WINDY ONCE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER INCREDIBLY FRIGID
AIRMASS BUILDING IN BY SUNDAY NIGHT

 

Bed time now.  I hope to wake up to see pages and pages added to this thread as to how all of SNE and eastern NY gets crushed.

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I have a little better shot being further east than you, but likewise I need to see "more" than just a historic ULL....the placement is such via consensus that to me it would primary favor N&E of even me...as the low stalls and we get pummeling winds, backlash, and probably 2-4 or 3-6.

The system is beginning to sniff better sampling sites now, so maybe this is the "run" where we see the big dog bark....otherwise we can all enjoy the ULL

Isn't consensus minus the gfs a good hit right now?
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I'll start getting excited when Albany begins to squawk. That's certainly not happening yet.

SATURDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES AND ONCE AGAIN...IT LOOKS AS IF

ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFER TO ANOTHER STORM SOUTHEAST OF

LONG ISLAND. IF THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS MORE QUICKLY...STEADY SNOW

COULD IMPACT MUCH OF OUR REGION...BUT RIGHT NOW OUR THINKING IS THAT

ANY STEADY SNOW WILL LIMITED TO ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH

LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. EITHER

WAY...IT WILL TURN WINDY ONCE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER INCREDIBLY FRIGID

AIRMASS BUILDING IN BY SUNDAY NIGHT

Bed time now. I hope to wake up to see pages and pages added to this thread as to how all of SNE and eastern NY gets crushed.

"Steady snow will be limited to adjacent western New England..."

Don't you live in adjacent western New England?

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I love the football spiking going on in here already.

Of course everything looks amazing right now, but it has only been one run of awesomeness. Let's get one more under our belts before start celebrating and declaring 30" snow amounts.

you missed 0z and who spiked? We discuss model output in here, when do the crayon maps come out?
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