swamplover56 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Please issue 5 post a day bans this is ridiculous post less read more almost every question some of you ask are answered in the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Questions i ask not only to inform myself and but to learn. Im new here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Fwiw The NAM totally FU'd the low development, it was headed for a more north solution and then went astray, shocking I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Fwiw The NAM totally FU'd the low development, it was headed for a more north solution and then went astray, shocking I know not sure why anyone takes this model seriously...the difference between 6z and 18z is embarrassing,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nam and gfs basically the same Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks for the kind words all. I just started compiling the data on qpf and but will surely share it as I have enough data. Onto 18z NYC SREF: 0.25 - 0.40 NAM: 0.15 - 0.30 GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Fwiw The NAM totally FU'd the low development, it was headed for a more north solution and then went astray, shocking I know Around what hour goose? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Questions i ask not only to inform myself and but to learn. Im new here. I see no problem with questions being asked about the setup or evolution of a storm. Who wouldn't want others to learn? It's only the IMBY questions that get annoying IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Fwiw The NAM totally FU'd the low development, it was headed for a more north solution and then went astray, shocking I know Yep, early on it was definitely north then it just kinda fell on its face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 ahh okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks for the kind words all. I just started compiling the data on qpf and but will surely share it as I have enough data. Onto 18z NYC SREF: 0.25 - 0.40 NAM: 0.15 - 0.30 GFS: Thanks again, we take you for granted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Fwiw The NAM totally FU'd the low development, it was headed for a more north solution and then went astray, shocking I know SG. Any chance that NCEP retires the NAM anytime soon? Do they have a replacement in the works? It's performance really over the last year has been atrocious even in non winter events. I know it's been said its already beyond its intended lifetime even with upgrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Should have not included NYC in that statement.NYC 1-2'' maybe 3''. South of NYC in the 4-6 range.thanks this model is such a schizo! I don't believe that we should even be looking at this model for now. Inside 24hrs yeah but not beyond that imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Winter Storm Watch now if effect for my area from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for snowfall greater then 5" possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just use the RGEM at this distance instead of the NAM . No one should be concerned with what the NAM has to say Use the EURO and GFS ensembles first Then those 2 ops and the RGEM inside 36 hours. It will give you a better picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nws going with 4-8 at the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Winter Storm Watch now if effect for my area from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for snowfall greater then 5" possible. After all its Sunday today. xD No surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like Upton has a new snow map out. They have 4-6 for the city, Long island, and I believe ne new Jersey. Then 2-4 for the lhv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 352 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 ...DANGEROUS COLD FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... NJZ010-012-015-PAZ102-104-106-161000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0004.150216T2300Z-150217T1700Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.WC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-150216T1600Z/ SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY- LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON... WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE... MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 352 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * HAZARD TYPES...DANGEROUS COLD, THEN POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GREATER THAN 5 INCHES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. * WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. * TIMING...THE LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES WILL OCCUR FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING THEN TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW GETS. * TEMPERATURES...DROPPING TO AROUND 2 BELOW ZERO THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * WIND...NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...THE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. * VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND BRISK WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA MAY OCCUR IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS, MAKE SURE TO DRESS IN LAYERS AND COVER EXPOSED SKIN. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS around 4:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif 8 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif how that looking??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I really don't know why my county is included with upton... I rather we be with mt holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks for info rcad1. It indicates more snow than Upton's point and click forecast of 2 to 4 inches for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 im rooting for you guys hope it trends closer Thanks for info rcad1. It indicates more snow than Upton's point and click forecast of 2 to 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks for info rcad1. It indicates more snow than Upton's point and click forecast of 2 to 4 inches for NYC. Kind of bullish(4-6 almost covering all of westchester and Rockland and NNJ) if you ask me., would think they would err on the conservative side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Kind of bullish(4-6 almost covering all of westchester and Rockland and NNJ) if you ask me., would think they would err on the conservative side.Why does upton keep doing this? 4-6 in Rockland? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 im rooting for you guys hope it trends closer Thanks. If it trends better for us it will trend better for you. You guys must take snow for granted now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Good luck down there guys. This has a vaguely SWFE-ish appeal to it. Hope it trends north a bit and you get nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Kind of bullish(4-6 almost covering all of westchester and Rockland and NNJ) if you ask me., would think they would err on the conservative side. Perhaps they're expecting higher ratios as was talked about earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This will end up being a SECS imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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