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Zelocita Weather

Feb 17 Miller A Threat

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What do the models show QPF wise for KMSV in the Catskills?

The sref mean is around .25 of an inch for kmsv.

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Was just about to say; The srerfs def ticked north, and are wetter with qpf for the NYC Metro area.

Its not too early to be looking at SREFs ? Thought they were a 24 hour prior range

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Was just about to say; The srerfs def ticked north, and are wetter with qpf for the NYC Metro area.

I don't really trust the SREFs as they've been pretty bad altogether (but what model really hasn't aside from a couple short terms?).....but it is good I guess that they have made a nice shift N and most of the members seem even above the mean. Also, areas to the N and W are also 6-10".....that's been pretty rare as most storms recently have showed such a sharp cutoff west of Long Island/NYC

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Your hugging 1 model... There's several models that don't show much for anyone North of the city.. Ok I'll give you 1-3. Dusting to an inch is just being conservated, cause usually the northern fringe of these progressive lows fall as either virga or are broken up by the mountains

No way in hell am I hugging one model!!! All models have at least 2-4 for the LHV and more towards NYC... Your area is much different!

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I get the impression that even if this baby comes North we aren't looking at a major event due to the lack of blocking. Forgive me if I'm wrong (clearly im a noob)

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SACRUS, any chance that maybe you can take this qpf model output from say, 24, 48 and 72 hours out and make some sort of spreadsheet to see how they verified? Or if someone is really good with that sort of thing maybe they could take this info and do that? If not this winter, then even in spring, etc.....would really be cool and would be a great way to show model accuracy

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EURO EPS for northern 1/2 of NJ is 1-4" from NW to SE. Mean and control almost exactly the same.

6" line on each is from roughly ACY to CC, south of all of LI. 1-2" NE PA TO NW CT. Did not look at individual

members yet.

CC?

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10 members have 1-2" NYC and 3 bring the 6" line just to doorstep of city.

Just 1 member gets the 6" line into and just north of city.

What about the other 37 members? ;)

I'm sure it's more of the same. I haven't even looked. Thanks for posting.

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Lol why are u KU hunting so hard?

It wasn't that bad of question.

The lack of blocking allows the storm to hit quickly. It could still drop some decent accumulations if it came north though.

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Based on 12Z guidance seems bidding starts at 2-4" for NNJ and NYC metro area.

Flow is fast and progressive . Looks like at 12 hour event at best from start to finish.

These events tend to be even quicker. I think it's an 8 hour storm. Zips in and out. Drops 2-6" west to east.

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18z NAM is a glancing blow for NYC east. NYC South into central/Southern NJ do well.

that does make sense. You say it's a blow for nyc and east but nyc and south do well. So how does nyc do here bud?

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Lol why are u KU  hunting so hard?

 

Who said anything about a KU? Just trying to understand and learn.  It seems like people are begging that this comes North and to me there's not a huge difference between 3 inches and 6 that's all.

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that does make sense. You say it's a blow for nyc and east but nyc and south do well. So how does nyc do here bud?

 Should have not included NYC in that statement.NYC 1-2'' maybe 3''. South of NYC in the 4-6 range. 

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