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Feb 17 Miller A Threat


Zelocita Weather

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The tendency all winter has been for models to overestimate the cold flow from the north, which subsequently has allowed surface lows to track further north than progged. It's going to be interesting to see if that trend continues. We have seen

These things shift north in only a matter of a couple of runs lately, especially immediately following a prior low pressure system passing by our latitude. That would be my worry if I lived in the lower-mid mid Atlantic right now

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DM, how do you think this storm is going to develop?

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DM, how do you think this storm is going to develop?

99

 

I am pulling for warning level snow for our area....

that moisture pool loop from my last post

 helps the system stay healthy as she tracks east

 

north ticks overnight ,,, a big bonus

 

dm

 

WPC track leans on the North and West side of the clusters-atm 

lets see what the updated graphic shows

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif

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99

I am pulling for warning level snow for our area....

that moisture pool loop from my last post

helps the system stay healthy as she tracks east

north ticks overnight ,,, a big bonus

dm

WPC track leans on the North and West side of the clusters-atm

lets see what the updated graphic shows

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif

I hope so. With the PNA looking to plummet and without the Nao and AO we may be looking at cutters soon.long range GFS shows this.

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So in this case when you have a cutter or cutters in long range specially in winter time with cold air around means more moisture in a system which can produce more snow. Would this make sense? Im very new to learning this stuff as a hobby so forgive me for anything i say that doesn't make sense. I accept corrections 24/7 xD

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So in this case when you have a cutter or cutters in long range specially in winter time with cold air around means more moisture in a system which can produce more snow. Would this make sense? Im very new to learning this stuff as a hobby so forgive me for anything i say that doesn't make sense. I accept corrections 24/7 xD

No, cutters pass to our west, so while we might initially start with snow, warm air eventually floods in and wins out. If we had a big time lakes cutter, Boston would be in serious trouble.

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