WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm annoyed that it's taking this long for a mod to restore my thread. Seriously, there's not one mid Atlantic staff member around for the last hour? I PM'ed you for instructions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Much wider precip shield on the GEFS than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 12z GFS is a miss but honestly not by much. I will venture to guess that several members of the GEFS give a good storm, several a glancing blow and several out to sea. What will cause it to go out to sea? Is it a late phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What will cause it to go out to sea? Is it a late phase? N stream is being squashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GEFS is much better than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I PM'ed you for instructions.This app blows. Never Saw it. Go to moderator cp. Looked for deleted content. You should see the thread. And then restore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This app blows. Never Saw it. Go to moderator cp. Looked for deleted content. You should see the thread. And then restore. It's not there. Only thread started today in there is one that Tip started in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LOL love how the GEM misses us south then gives us pity flakes on the following clipper before it blows up and destroys Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z UKIE QPF map at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z UKIE QPF map at 72 12zUKIE72hrsQPF2-14-15.gif Doesn't that look like it would be a solid hit? I don't know but it looks like it. Unless it heads due east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Snow moves in around 9am Saturday morning. 2-4" on ground by 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Snow moves in around 9am Saturday morning. 2-4" on ground by 1pm Next Saturday on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We flip to mix/rain late afternoon..probably tack on another 2" before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Next Saturday on the Euro? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Snow moves in around 9am Saturday morning. 2-4" on ground by 1pm You referring to the Euro for the possibility next week? ETA: Answered already, I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Might as well stick around for sh-its and giggles to see if we flip back....4-6" before the flip is best guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You referring to the Euro for the possibility next week?ETA: Answered already, I see.[/quote We are now talking about a storm 10 day out again this winter sucks Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You referring to the Euro for the possibility next week?ETA: Answered already, I see.[/quote We are now talking about a storm 10 day out again this winter sucks Sent from my iPhone It's actually day 6.5...still far away in fantasy land, but not 10 days anyway, we don't flip back. looks like Maybe we'll have something else to track this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Might as well stick around for sh-its and giggles to see if we flip back....4-6" before the flip is best guess...does tennesee still get 30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's actually day 6.5...still far away in fantasy land, but not 10 days anyway, we don't flip back. looks like Maybe we'll have something else to track this week Yes, looks that way. It's been showing up and the GFS had a similar event which gives us something then flips, then cold again behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 does tennesee still get 30? not if we flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Eurowx text is warm gets dca to 42 with over an inch of rain. Then a bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's actually day 6.5...still far away in fantasy land, but not 10 days anyway, we don't flip back. looks like Maybe we'll have something else to track this week yea but its total crap situation. Even as is yea we all get 4-7" of snow then it flips to heavy driving rain for 12 hours and washes it all away. YAY, ill pass on that thanks. Euro once again, from day 7-10 had a better setup for a "REAL" storm with the northern branch digging better and allowing the STJ to be the dominant feature. Now that it's moving inside 7 days its caving to the GFS idea of a crap setup with a northern stream dominated system and strung out waves along a front. I was kind of expecting that to happen but was holding out hope it stuck with its idea from last run of a consolidated southern stream dominated system. We need the northern branch to really dig and phase to get something of significance in this pattern. Of course with a pos nao we need that to happen at the right trough axis also or it will cut. Thread the needle to the max. The GFS is really close to what we need for the second wave Wednesday, euro is trending that way too but is putting too much into the lead wave and running the energy way out ahead. But the way to get something good in this pattern is for the northern stream to dig enough, dive into the Tenn Valley, and phase with a STJ wave over the southeast. That is our best shot. These strung out systems from the west are crap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 yea but its total crap situation. Even as is yea we all get 4-7" of snow then it flips to heavy driving rain for 12 hours and washes it all away. YAY, ill pass on that thanks. Euro once again, from day 7-10 had a better setup for a "REAL" storm with the northern branch digging better and allowing the STJ to be the dominant feature. Now that it's moving inside 7 days its caving to the GFS idea of a crap setup with a northern stream dominated system and strung out waves along a front. I was kind of expecting that to happen but was holding out hope it stuck with its idea from last run of a consolidated southern stream dominated system. We need the northern branch to really dig and phase to get something of significance in this pattern. Of course with a pos nao we need that to happen at the right trough axis also or it will cut. Thread the needle to the max. The GFS is really close to what we need for the second wave Wednesday, euro is trending that way too but is putting too much into the lead wave and running the energy way out ahead. But the way to get something good in this pattern is for the northern stream to dig enough, dive into the Tenn Valley, and phase with a STJ wave over the southeast. That is our best shot. These strung out systems from the west are crap... I won't...I'd lock it in immediately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 I won't...I'd lock it in immediately move over, you have company let it snow and whatever happens to it after it falls, so be it.....it's going to melt eventually anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 move over, you have company let it snow and whatever happens to it after it falls, so be it.....it's going to melt eventually anyway I have 5" on season...I wouldn't punt 5-6" even if it spikes to 85 degrees after it flips... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is still in fantasy land so I'll ask my question here and not banter. What are you looking at that would suggest a fron end thump of 4"+? Text output I'm seeing on eurowx shows the 180 and 192 h panels with 1.46" as rain and then .15" as snow on the back end. Even York and h'burg have >32 surface temps. Actually, the most impressive part of that run, IMO, was the brutal cold shot at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I have 5" on season...I wouldn't punt 5-6" even if it spikes to 85 degrees after it flips... I'm not picky in any form. Second half of February is no time to be picky. Especially with such dismal totals on the year. Lock it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is still in fantasy land so I'll ask my question here and not banter. What are you looking at that would suggest a fron end thump of 4"+? Text output I'm seeing on eurowx shows the 180 and 192 h panels with 1.46" as rain and then .15" as snow on the back end. Even York and h'burg have >32 surface temps. Actually, the most impressive part of that run, IMO, was the brutal cold shot at day 10. Not sure where you are getting the text from but Westminster gets almost .5 before a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I won't...I'd lock it in immediately I have no problem with a 5" snow, but I want it to be on the ground for more then 3 hours and be able to enjoy it while its not a driving rainstorm out. Give me the same amount of snow on the back end of the system and I would be thrilled but honestly you would be happy if you got 5" of snow followed immediately by 12 hours of driving heavy rain and 40 degrees and had no trace of it all left on the ground when the storm ended? ETA: not in any way criticizing, everyone is entitled to their own preferences of course I just need the snow to actually be OTG when the storm ends to enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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