Jebman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Do you want someone who will tell you the truth? Or do you want joe bastardi? I want someone who will tell me the truth about the storm. But, I already know the pattern is not conducive to snow for us. It's cold enough, but the storm is trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This turned really bad after someone started that storm thread yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 At work I hedge with uncertainties and express them because the mission there is to communicate to stakeholders to protect life and property. There is protocol, policy etc. On here I can be bold, express what I think. So why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This winter, once one model has a big shift they all follow suit. I knew yesterday after the 18Z GFS we were toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is the year of having a 10 day storm only to have it disappear for us at the 4-5 day mark. Models should not be available to the general public for any period greater than 5 days. We have people in here that say up to 2 am just to see if there is a storm 10 days out. lol... I think we all need therapy after this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This turned really bad after someone started that storm thread yesterday afternoon. jonjon, off topic, but Saturday is looking really nice up by you. I'm thinking another 4-8 looks likely even though NWS Pitt doesn't seem as enthused. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is the year of having a 10 day storm only to have it disappear for us at the 4-5 day mark. Models should not be available to the general public for any period greater than 5 days. We have people in here that say up to 2 am just to see if there is a storm 10 days out. lol... I think we all need therapy after this winter. How about a get together in late March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 jonjon, off topic, but Saturday is looking really nice up by you. I'm thinking another 4-8 looks likely even though NWS Pitt doesn't seem as enthused. What do you think? 4-8" seems plausible. Although, as I posted in the other thread, the real show will be the wind, temps and drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSOWxWizard Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You all are really a depressing bunch. A few runs of models and everyone jumps ship. Lest we forget that a lot of times its a few runs of models that show something good for us only to have it shift back to what it was showing previously, which is usually a Boston storm and mess us over. We are in the period of time the models are usually the least accurate. The actual shortwave energy for this system is still over the North Pacific and what is being sampled is the Sunday system that created this change. If we are to believe that the models have been overcompensating for the cold all year long during the 4-5 day time frame what is to say this is any different? It has been consistent but in weather there are no absolutes. It is very possible that this does stay south. But at least lets use sound meteorological knowledge and not gut feelings. In this business that will burn you more than not. Now, personally, I do think this has some correction back to the North. Whether its enough for DC/Balt or not is yet to be seen. That will be determined as we get closer. If it doesn't I will find it personally ironic that my home back in Georgia, which I moved from to here in July, is about to get more snow than the area I am in now has all year long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 6z GEFS mean is WAY north of the 6z GFS. And based on the individual members, it's not being unduly biased by 1 or 2 outliers. There's even a warm rainer on the GEFS. That said, 0z EPS sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 At work I hedge with uncertainties and express them because the mission there is to communicate to stakeholders to protect life and property. There is protocol, policy etc. On here I can be bold, express what I think. So why not? There are obvious reasons why this thing may not shift back North (this winter sucks, Lady Luck moved to Boston, etc.), but I would love to hear your thoughts on why you believe the models have figured this one out. Sorry if I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 6z GEFS mean is WAY north of the 6z GFS. And based on the individual members, it's not being unduly biased by 1 or 2 outliers. There's even a warm rainer on the GEFS. That said, 0z EPS sucks. gfs_z500_mslp_us_20.png gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_20.png but the EPS at 12z was great and look what happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 There are obvious reasons why this thing may not shift back North (this winter sucks, Lady Luck moved to Boston, etc.), but I would love to hear your thoughts on why you believe the models have figured this one out. Sorry if I missed it. The pattern does not support a significant east coast storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Cold blocking high to the north - No Phasing - Not much Amplified ridge over the west- not ideal Trough going neg tilt - no 50-50 low - models have something in vicinity but does not look ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The pattern does not support a significant east coast storm! This year, the pattern has been terrible. If we paid more attention to all the items that are against us than a model run, I think we would have all been a little less disappointed. Sometime, we get lucky.. but we have to bet against luck. Thanks for the voice of reason even if I do not like the reality, there really are not many things that would make me think it will be a big east coast snow.. MAYBE something we do not see shows up today and changes our minds, but I am doubtful as you are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This year, the pattern has been terrible. If we paid more attention to all the items that are against us than a model run, I think we would have all been a little less disappointed. Sometime, we get lucky.. but we have to bet against luck. Thanks for the voice of reason even if I do not like the reality, there really are not many things that would make me think it will be a big east coast snow.. MAYBE something we do not see shows up today and changes our minds, but I am doubtful as you are! Good points. I hope we get snow. Its been a dissapointing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Better than cold rain. I know you agree. No it isn't. No precip = no snow. Fact. Temps aren't that absolute. We had snow here yesterday with temps near 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The pattern does not support a significant east coast storm! The modeled pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Everyone should have expected the 6z not to look good... Let's see what the 12z suite has in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 At work I hedge with uncertainties and express them because the mission there is to communicate to stakeholders to protect life and property. There is protocol, policy etc. On here I can be bold, express what I think. So why not? that is what everyone on this forum should want from you......otherwise why not just watch the tv weather forecasts.....thanks for letting us know how you really feel.........it is refreshing to get brutal honesty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The modeled pattern. The pattern. No support all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yesterday's 12z euro op had an initial piece of energy that dove down out of the Rockies but was suppressed south (around hour 112). But it left behind a trailing low that then developed and gave us a halfway decent track. The end of the NAM run actually showed the beginnings of that too yesterday. The 00z euro seems to be missing that progression of events. The piece of energy is the main feature and after it goes out to sea, that's all she wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The pattern does not support a significant east coast storm! its support a deep south snowstorm through right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 its support a deep south snowstorm through right? if you say so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Actually the GFS ensemble runs on 06z look the best I've seen. There has got to be a correction to the north coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The pattern. No support all year We get it. You will get credit when it goes south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Good points. I hope we get snow. Its been a dissapointing winter. Euro shows 6 inches for Tenneseee 3-5 inches for Alabama ..etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We get it. You will get credit when it goes southI never get credit for anything :< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We get it. You will get credit when it goes south he's just answering all the weenies questioning his forecast/reasoning...not just rubbing it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I never get credit for anything :< sure you do...even stuff you didn't say/do/forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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