SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Uncle: image.jpg Jesus, that's horrible. That's not really comparable. What about what has fallen between 12z today and 00z? There should be less on that current map. Not enough to matter really, most saw flurries to an inch at best before 0z. Steadier snow didn't start until after 7 for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Uncle: image.jpg Doesn't look that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Its probably going to look worse and worse for most of the area.......models are going to realize that this is all driven by mesoscale proccesses. Quite possible but something must have shifted aloft and I'm too lazy to look or care as it'll change by next run anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Doesn't look that bad. That's pretty bad. light green = 15-20mm = 0.6-0.8" QPF, yellow = 20-25mm = 0.8-1" QPF. If that's right, no one is cracking double digits and most will struggle to hit warning criteria(8" in 24). At this point though, it's time to sit back, relax, enjoy what falls and see what happens. Hoping to wake up in the morning to a couple fluffy inches with more on the way. Night all and may the odds ever be in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Quite possible but something must have shifted aloft and I'm too lazy to look or care as it'll change by next run anyway At this point, I'm just read for whatever is going to happen, to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I don't think it's changed all that much. The max areas have been signaled and the rest has always looked pedestrian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Its probably going to look worse and worse for most of the area.......models are going to realize that this is all driven by mesoscale proccesses. There didn't seem to be much discussion/ fanfare when models at 12z began to weaken the Coastal idea and no longer show that as consolidated. Instead people focused on the Meso Bands. I agree that not much changed for NE mass, thou I would temper the 2'+ ideas . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 That's pretty bad. light green = 15-20mm = 0.6-0.8" QPF, yellow = 20-25mm = 0.8-1" QPF. If that's right, no one is cracking double digits and most will struggle to hit warning criteria(8" in 24). At this point though, it's time to sit back, relax, enjoy what falls and see what happens. Hoping to wake up in the morning to a couple fluffy inches with more on the way. Night all and may the odds ever be in your favor. I urge you to look at the history of that model. I'd trust RGEM a zillion times more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I don't think it's changed all that much. The max areas have been signaled and the rest has always looked pedestrian. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I don't think it's changed all that much. The max areas have been signaled and the rest has always looked pedestrian.insanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 insanity People have just analyzed this one to death given the all of the mess nuances......I know I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 A lot of people outside of where this big band sets up are going to wonder wtf all the hype was about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 In the end, it will be the climo circle jerk locales who'll jack. It's either Danvers/Peabody, or Rockland/Whitman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 A lot of people outside of where this big band sets up are going to wonder wtf all the hype was about But right now the band is over the city during a weekday so it's pretty significant if it plays out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 In the end, it will be the climo circle jerk locales who'll jack. It's either Danvers/Peabody, or Rockland/Whitman. Yup. I'm just hoping to catch the west end and not be in a black hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Here's the HRRR's take on the next 15 hours of the storm. The overrunning seems to be focused slightly more SE than what the global models are showing, though the GFS is close, but a little more widespread. Let's see if this verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 As I mentioned earlier... If there was an event to be bearish, this may be it. Outside of the max zones... Looks pretty average currently. I'm just interested too see how this all plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yup. I'm just hoping to catch the west end and not be in a black hole. Yeah it's not worth stressing. If it sets up on the So. Shore, then its a nightmare for most, but if it's N Shore then you're at least in a decent spot. Hopefully we'll pin it down tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 People have just analyzed this one to death given the all of the mess nuances......I know I have.nuances are eternally modeled incorrectly. Nowcast sit as to where convergence sets up. Bursts at different places except EMA from Gloucester to Scooter to Andover to Blue Hill where it's constant inflow. Models have been steady on the max just some noise waffles that are never exactly modeled correctly. Let the game begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm only expecting 4"-8" for BDL and my area north of them south of Springfield along the border. Man that's low. Hope you're wrong. 6-10 would be the lowest range I would find acceptable given all the time invested and honestly anything under 9-10 would be dissapointing. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 A lot of people outside of where this big band sets up are going to wonder wtf all the hype was about If there was a nice coastal Monday this would be a wee different story for higher widespread Any idea what your depth is Down in PYM I measured 29" in a few spots at my Grandparents near the Wakefield/Lynnfield line today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I don't see this as a super 15 mile wide band either, RPM is and remains garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 More than noise that's a pretty dramatic shift downwards bell to bell. Will see how it plays out... I think logical skepticism and red flags on the models in terms of consistency with qpf should have been enough for most to realize this was going to be a nice wintery period rather than some region wide jaw dropper. That being said, isolated areas are going to get croaked but the differences in totals will be more dispersed and maybe cursed than the blizzard two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 But right now the band is over the city during a weekday so it's pretty significant if it plays out that way. I just have the feeling this one will wiggle around right until the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I think logical skepticism and red flags on the models in terms of consistency with qpf should have been enough for most to realize this was going to be a nice wintery period rather than some region wide jaw dropper. That being said, isolated areas are going to get croaked but the differences in totals will be more dispersed and maybe cursed than the blizzard two weeks ago. I was most impressed with the blizzard's huge range of 25"+ coverage. Nearly all of SE NH out to 495 and over to ORH then over toward Garth /Ginxy then over to Bob and then Messenger and most of cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yea, I wish we hadn't lost the coastal component of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 A lot of people outside of where this big band sets up are going to wonder wtf all the hype was about Not really sure there was anything to really hype. 3-5" per day for a few days would be manageable in DC. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yea, I wish we hadn't lost the coastal component of this. Agreed. Still, assuming guidance has the right idea in continually showing our areas as the favored lands, I think we've got much less to 'worry' about than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Localization of the band and other features changed less than the overall qpf did... something tripped up GGEM/RGEM/UK 0z outputs and resulted in a significantly drier outcome. Will be interesting to see how Euro does. 12z Euro was widespread 12"+, and up to 14" in same max band area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The Front looks to be sagging south. Now through Albany, NY. Let's see how far south it comes. Already see radar becoming better as the gradient increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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