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Long duration overrunning to coastal disco 02/07-02/09


Damage In Tolland

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I get the hesitation given lack of widespread synoptic forcing.

 

On the other hand, really remarkable model consensus for a widespread 10"+ in eastern MA, with much more depicted Essex - Suffolk - Norfolk.

 

Continuing the theme of the winter, NWS is more bullish than the board collective.

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I think the expectations have gotten too high in this event...there's going to be some people screaming bust if they get 11-12" of fluff that increases the depth by 5" by Tuesday morning.

I can tell you I won't be screaming bust. For crying out loud I can't even see my neighbors truck that's how high the snow banks are. I am happy to see any bit of snow. Snowbanks (snowblowing/plows) are running around 6-8 feet high. Actual snowpack is 25-30". I say whatever we can add on lets do it! 

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pretty good rates here currently. nice flakes stacking up with light winds

 

Looking at the Hi-Res Nam winds well out over the water (S of mid coast Maine to say East of Portsmouth, NH ) is the area where we will notice Winds shift NE first  (2am) and increase. This area expands and begins to envelop N Essex county as early as say 4 am and by 6 -7am ALL of E MA has light NE winds (with Essex county more moderate) withwinds of 20-30 mph encompassing a wide area from Boston Harbor  to Cape Ann NE several hundred miles toward eastern Maine covering a large swath.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/wind12.html

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I'm sweating. Notice the hole. Radar is blossoming everywhere yet is drying up over my head.

Yup. Red flag here I think. Not looking for a jack, just hoping I don't get jack (like the "blizzard" that gave me a whopping 5").

Lol, you are not alone, all of W MA is in that hole.

Cutting the BOX maps in half out here (including the Berks) is not unrealistic.

Just enjoy whatever you get! I'm going to the Greenfield Winter Carnival tomorrow with the family and there will actually be enough snow to hold all of the events for the first time is 3 years!

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Rgem looks exactly the same in Ct. 8-12 and then more after 48

That would mean we're looking at 15:1 ratios if that were to be 8-12" for you. IDK if we'll see that considering relatively poor snow growth appears to be modeled and there's not a lot of lift to work with, but who knows. Ratios are one of the hardest things to forecast IMO which is also annoying because there one of the easiest ways that a forecast can get messed up.

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During the day Monday nobody gets even 10m this run...definitely a tick down in most other areas on intensity

Well then that must be hellacious Sunday night because many of us have 40mm. FYI it's coming down pretty good at 48 hours...per 3 hours totals.... Look at other than those black and white maps.

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Well then that must be hellacious Sunday night because many of us have 40mm. FYI it's coming down pretty good at 48 hours...per 3 hours totals.... Look at other than those black and white maps.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

I'll take my chances on what was a colder run this time down here, less of a severe band more general snow with a few hours of changeover. models probably aren't going to pin until go time and I do think the rpm type models are right in it being a very very narrow band with people on either side swinging from the rafters

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