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Long duration overrunning to coastal disco 02/07-02/09


Damage In Tolland

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I wasn't trying to debbie lol I was just pointing out something I noticed when I was looking at BUFKIT earlier. I'm not really worried about how much snow I get or don't get.

 

You were right on. Outside of the areas that get a big mesoscale assist I have been noticing the same thing since Thursday on BUFKIT soundings. A number of caution flags including bad snow growth, funky dry layers, and areas of strong mesoscale subsidence. 

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Here's one of several reasons(Look at the maps from the media for the others) that people have potentially unrealistic expectations with this one. It's hard to see a map like this and not get excited even when you know the potential drawbacks, it's just how the human mind works...

 

post-8652-0-57586100-1423363718_thumb.pn

 

Here was our final map, didn't have any part in making it but I think overall the guys did a good job. Highest bust potential is along the south coast I think in either direction.

post-8652-0-81673200-1423363807_thumb.jp

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I'm in Essex County, but I'm also fairly close to Ray, so I'm just totally confused at this point.   Sounds like we could get 6" or 26" or somewhere in between based on the posts around here.  :)  

 

I also don't care if I jackpot or not.  I'm just always excited to watch it snow.  I'm more interested in how things play out so I can deal with real world stuff, like having employees come to work, kids go to school, etc.  

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The BOX map could end up close, though I personally would go lower...but the fact it is over like 60 hours and there's a fluff factor likely is also going to play into the "expectations game"...like I said before, I can see many screaming bust if they get 11" of snow that adds 5" of depth over 60 hours....and then someone will have to remind them they got nearly a foot of snow at the end.

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If you aren't in the death band, this event will suck. Ive been saying that. That is ehy Im so worried....this look like I may be just on the oitside looking in

 

 

I don't find the RPM's depiction of a narrow death band very realistic...

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Yep.

 

It's going to be a nice event if you keep expectations pretty realistic. I was out skiing today most of the day, so I haven't been in here, but just reading the past 3-4 pages, it seems like many are expecting a pretty hefty swath of 12"+...and even much higher than that.

 

It's not going to look like that I don't think. They'll be some localized jackpots, but anyone actually "expecting" to be in it will probably walk from this storm with disappointment. Maybe Essex county MA has reason to expect 15"

BOX agreed about Essex but had that 18+24 deep into Middlesex and models continue to show inside 128 might do well also.

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I wasn't trying to debbie lol I was just pointing out something I noticed when I was looking at BUFKIT earlier. I'm not really worried about how much snow I get or don't get.

 

Yours was a legit question, the debbies was referring to many of the other bridge jumper comments that have floated around in the last few hours.

 

I could very well see fits and starts type snowfall up here on the northern edge of things as dry air eats away.

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ohkzvc.jpg

 

This jackpot will shift around but I do agree that people just NW of wherever this sets up (And SE for that matter) will get screwed.

:lmao:  :snowing:

Shut it down.

 

Generally, it looks pretty far south though with the placement of everything which would benefit those on the fringe on the south coast/cape at the expense of PF and the picnic tables(Although I'm sure they'll get their way to 15"+ off of 40:1 fluff and upslope ;) ). Interested to see if the RGEM shifts south at all considering it was one of the furthest south models already at 18z.

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Can you think of any events that had that sharp a gradient to that extreme from a cf?

 

No....Dec '03 was kind of close, but different setup. That had some largescale synoptic forcing not really prevelant here.

 

Theere will def be CF enhancement, there's no doubt, but it's probably not going to be in a 5 mile wide band for 40 consecutive hours.

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No....Dec '03 was kind of close, but different setup. That had some largescale synoptic forcing not really prevelant here.

 

Theere will def be CF enhancement, there's no doubt, but it's probably not going to be in a 5 mile wide band for 40 consecutive hours.

 

Yeah especially with the CF waffling throughout the event.

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No....Dec '03 was kind of close, but different setup. That had some largescale synoptic forcing not really prevelant here.

 

Theere will def be CF enhancement, there's no doubt, but it's probably not going to be in a 5 mile wide band for 40 consecutive hours.

 

Yeah the RPM is too extreme - though these events that have fairly meh synoptic forcing wind up producing some really funky gradients and features. We know we have the CF in eastern areas... and likely a nice zone of enhancement in the ORH Hills and Berks. 

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Lol, plenty of time to make an adjustment of distance that small. Nowcast, watch the radar and sweat it out.

I'm sweating. Notice the hole. Radar is blossoming everywhere yet is drying up over my head.

Yeah I think most will be disappointed. It's a fairly unimpressive storm and while some areas are going to get smoked (it's pretty obvious where those areas will be) there are a lot of red flags for other locales.

Yup. Red flag here I think. Not looking for a jack, just hoping I don't get jack (like the "blizzard" that gave me a whopping 5").

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not sure why more posters didn't enter some numbers in the contest. Don S even posted his in there. It takes 2 mins

 

Snowing nicely in Melrose

Yeah, I was surprised at how low the participation was. You'd think that with all the yapping some do about forecasts and predictions they'd want to make their own, but guess not.

 

If you want to give it a try: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45639-long-duration-overrunningcoastal-forecast-contest/. I'll give you until Midnight before it's a late entry, anyone who has submitted can go back and edit their entries if they like as well.

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