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Long duration overrunning to coastal disco 02/07-02/09


Damage In Tolland

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I haven't seen any change in QPF output and distribution on either the GFS or the Euro for SNE in 2 days. North South East West consistently 1- 1.5

Dude, it's been trending north.

 

That isn't debatable.

There was room to spare, so a lot of the area hasn't decreased much, but that is about to change if it keep up.

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I would just rather let go the Currier and Ives overrunning and grab a bigger coastal, even if it means some ptype issues. I feel like we should hope for that down this way. Might be playing with fire, but oh well.

The coastal seems like a long shot in this one. IDK, just a feeling I have.

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QPF distribution and amounts have not changed, not sure if it makes sense to you. Nothing has changed with QPF

Well, snowfall distribution has changed.

I was on the northern edge of the heaviest amounts, not I'm on the southern edge.

Area of CT and RI now have less.

 

It shifted about 50 miles north, indesputable.

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Yeah a bit further north with the prancing currier and Ives band allows the main show to be a bit more robust.

Obviously you don't want things like 150 miles north of where they are now but I'm not overly concerned about that. I still think Tip has a valid point on these shortwaves. They are offshore and since the whole evolution is complex, it means more than normal to get some better data on that.

I thought the euro really started keying in on that shortwave for Sunday night and I kind of envision that becoming more dominant with time.

But...that's why they play the games. We will just have to wait and see.

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Yeah a bit further north with the prancing currier and Ives band allows the main show to be a bit more robust.

Obviously you don't want things like 150 miles north of where they are now but I'm not overly concerned about that. I still think Tip has a valid point on these shortwaves. They are offshore and since the whole evolution is complex, it means more than normal to get some better data on that.

I thought the euro really started keying in on that shortwave for Sunday night and I kind of envision that becoming more dominant with time.

But...that's why they play the games. We will just have to wait and see.

Very true....may be reading too much into current trends.

 

Let it play out.

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Well, snowfall distribution has changed.

I was on the northern edge of the heaviest amounts, not I'm on the southern edge.

Area of CT and RI now have less.

It shifted about 50 miles north, indesputable.

really because the Euro GFS snow maps and distribution of QPF look like they place NE Mass in the crosshairs
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The members of the GEFS are still in disagreement. Some look too far to the north, others are just a mess. 

 

I know what you mean Ray, but I kind of buy a scenario where maybe it's more lighter snows pike north and then a more robust coastal like the euro was showing as Will outlined. Of course that low could be too close or out to sea...but I don't know if I agree with a measly 1012mb low sliding east of the BM on Monday.

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really because the Euro GFS snow maps and distribution of QPF look like they place NE Mass in the crosshairs

Yes, I am in the crosshairs....because I was not on the northern edge of it before.

Now I'm the southern edge

 

Look, we're all going to snow...but be objective, it has been trending....does that mean we won't have an awesome winter weekend?

Absolutely not.

Does that mean it won't reverse?

No.

I'm just stating a fact.

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The members of the GEFS are still in disagreement. Some look too far to the north, others are just a mess. 

 

I know what you mean Ray, but I kind of buy a scenario where maybe it's more lighter snows pike north and then a more robust coastal like the euro was showing as Will outlined. Of course that low could be too close or out to see...but I don't know if I agree with a measly 1012mb low sliding east of the BM on Monday.

I agree with you guys.....we'll probably see a more robust coastal consolidate.

Higher stakes.

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Yes, I am in the crosshairs....because I was not on the northern edge of it before.

Now I'm the southern edge

Look, we're all going to snow...but be objective, it has been trending....does that mean we won't have an awesome winter weekend?

Absolutely not.

Does that mean it won't reverse?

No.

I'm just stating a fact.

? and this is only 10-1

gfs_asnow_eus_28.png

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I would just rather let go the Currier and Ives overrunning and grab a bigger coastal, even if it means some ptype issues. I feel like we should hope for that down this way. Might be playing with fire, but oh well.

I'll take my chances with it. This days and days of snow idea is weak, give me more bang for my buck instead.

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