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Long duration overrunning to coastal disco 02/07-02/09


Damage In Tolland

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I'm not in broadcast media or NWS so I don't know their perspective on it, but to speak from the other side of the table so to speak(Social media/alternative forecasting(when compared to media/nws which I see as "mainstream").

 

I think a lot of what is causing the early predictions/forecasts is that the public is now more aware of what's going on with the weather and with the models. Even back when I started in 2012, the public knew very little about how forecasting "worked", they just looked at what the snow totals were and called it a day. For that reason, because there was no competition, forecasters generally could wait until they had relatively high confidence to go into exact numbers, since they were going to be the "source" for whatever was coming from the mysterious process known as forecasting.

 

Now, you have models being shown on TV all the time, hundreds of social media sites(Some legitimate, some simply to cause hype) that show the models and scenarios to any average Joe with a Facebook account, and models much more freely available to the general public, and as a result, there's a lot more awareness of what the models are showing and it forces forecasters to touch on them or risk being made irrelevant for whoever is mentioning the "next big thing" already. The public wants instant gratification and they want it now, and god damnit if you won't give it to them because someone else will whose desperate to make a name for themselves in this field and who cares if they're right. Before, when no one really knew what the "black box" that was the models was showing, there was a lot less pressure to explain their solutions and make a forecast at that range where models are so inaccurate still.

 

As a result, you've got folks now forced to make predictions further ahead of time so that you don't lose your readers/viewers and with them any revenue you might be making(ad dollars, private clients, etc.). As much as we wish this business was only about accuracy, you've got to make money to stay in business and if you aren't getting viewers/readers, you're going to be broke unless the few that remain are paying substantially more.  NWS is sort of an interesting case in that it doesn't really rely on any source of revenue from it's readers and so it theoretically would have the liberty to wait until they had more confidence/were closer in, but I see it as you don't want to be the only one that's not saying something because then if you aren't forecasting something, people will run with whoever is even if it's clearly wrong and then by the time you come out with the more accurate forecast, it's too late.

 

Personally, our policy has always been first call 24-48 hours before start time and final call 6-18 hours before start time and we haven't changed that as of yet, but we're definitely getting more people wanting to know what's going on earlier and earlier because of something that they heard on the news/facebook/etc(We've already got people talking about a big one for this weekend). and it almost forces us to mention it.

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You'll be well west of the CF in Dracut. I don't see it penetrating too far inland N of BOS. Probably pegged right along the coastline.

Strange recordings of wind intensity and direction out in Boston Harbor north. The harbor and northern cape cod bay are at ENE while Isle of Shoals and UNH are NE. I could see that hitting within 5 miles of Cape Ann's coastline, while maybe down through the Braintree split is the other setup for the CF. The only way the CF comes out to me in Dracut is with decent shifts in wind now that I look at it. Finally, these totals according to BOX must be due to a very high ratio--I just can't see another 10-14 out here.

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What weenies. Any intelligent person might say we're closed tomorrow and will make an assessment regarding Tuesday when we have more knowledge of what the situation will be tomorrow.

 

The problem is the snow they already have and no where to put it. Any decent snowfall is going to cause huge problems with snow removal until the old snow melts.

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The last couple of events I personally have had an issues with some of our maps. It's like we're forecasting the maximum amounts, trying to make sure all snow reports fall at or below our values. Rather than forecasting the most likely and mentioning isolated higher amounts.

 

We talk about lollis on this board for a reason, because they are few and far between and the vast majority of people won't see those totals.

 

 

It seems like lately because of the impacts of prior storms, and media hype, that just large totals are thrown out now like candy. 

 

I'm still a little surprised at the Winter Storm Warnings outside of some certain select spots like Mass.  I mean, we've had a bunch of events over the years in CNE/NNE where you get a total of 8-12" or 10-16" over the course of like 3 days.  Heck that's like climo up here in the heart of winter.  A winter storm warning with no more than 4" expected in any 12-hour period seems odd.  I bet J.Spin or I could come up with a page long list of dates where 72 hours produced over 8" of snow.

 

I'd like to take more pride that New Englanders can handle a long duration light snow event, whether there's 20"+ on the ground or not.  With that said, I've become so oblivious to what its like living near a real urban area with snow, that I can't really judge. Up here, they just keep blading the snow further into the woods or fields, and there's really no point where a lot of NNE gets to "where to put it all" status.  Just further into the woods, lol.

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It seems like lately because of the impacts of prior storms, and media hype, that just large totals are thrown out now like candy.

I'm still a little surprised at the Winter Storm Warnings outside of some certain select spots like Mass. I mean, we've had a bunch of events over the years in CNE/NNE where you get a total of 8-12" or 10-16" over the course of like 3 days. Heck that's like climo up here in the heart of winter. A winter storm warning with no more than 4" expected in any 12-hour period seems odd. I bet J.Spin or I could come up with a page long list of dates where 72 hours produced over 8" of snow.

I'd like to take more pride that New Englanders can handle a long duration light snow event, whether there's 20"+ on the ground or not. With that said, I've become so oblivious to what its like living near a real urban area with snow, that I can't really judge. Up here, they just keep blading the snow further into the woods or fields, and there's really no point where a lot of NNE gets to "where to put it all" status. Just further into the woods, lol.

I am expecting more than 4" in 12 hours? I was under the impression if was closer to 6" in 12? Not heavy snow but still impactful. Mayor in Boston is operating under assumption of 24" based on presser.

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It seems like lately because of the impacts of prior storms, and media hype, that just large totals are thrown out now like candy. 

 

I'm still a little surprised at the Winter Storm Warnings outside of some certain select spots like Mass.  I mean, we've had a bunch of events over the years in CNE/NNE where you get a total of 8-12" or 10-16" over the course of like 3 days.  Heck that's like climo up here in the heart of winter.  A winter storm warning with no more than 4" expected in any 12-hour period seems odd.  I bet J.Spin or I could come up with a page long list of dates where 72 hours produced over 8" of snow.

 

I'd like to take more pride that New Englanders can handle a long duration light snow event, whether there's 20"+ on the ground or not.  With that said, I've become so oblivious to what its like living near a real urban area with snow, that I can't really judge. Up here, they just keep blading the snow further into the woods or fields, and there's really no point where a lot of NNE gets to "where to put it all" status.  Just further into the woods, lol.

 

There is a decision maker element to it too. It is almost more impactful to have plow operators clearing snow constantly for 48 hours than for 10 inches to fall in 10 hours.

 

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There is a decision maker element to it too. It is almost more impactful to have plow operators clearing snow constantly for 48 hours than for 10 inches to fall in 10 hours.

It just seems like it happens a lot though is my point and we don't get warnings. Maybe it's the meso-scale snow we get here, but days and days of plowing several inches a day isn't all that uncommon. I guess I was wondering why would this be any different from any of our "snowy" patterns where you get plowed each morning from 3-4" for 4 days straight from a series of weak disturbances moving over the mountains of NNE.

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It just seems like it happens a lot though is my point and we don't get warnings. Maybe it's the meso-scale snow we get here, but days and days of plowing several inches a day isn't all that uncommon. I guess I was wondering why would this be any different from any of our "snowy" patterns where you get plowed each morning from 3-4" for 4 days straight from a series of weak disturbances moving over the mountains of NNE.

 

I think what complicates this is finding a true break in the precip.

 

Sure it hasn't always been accumulating, but it's been snowing at GYX since this time yesterday.

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I think what complicates this is finding a true break in the precip.

 

Sure it hasn't always been accumulating, but it's been snowing at GYX since this time yesterday.

 

Chris - you guys finding the SREF any more useful this season? Seen a lot of discussion about it from mets on the internet especially during after the NYC blizzard debacle but I have had limited if any success using it here in the past. 

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Chris - you guys finding the SREF any more useful this season? Seen a lot of discussion about it from mets on the internet especially during after the NYC blizzard debacle but I have had limited if any success using it here in the past. 

 

Mainly for trends. Do snow/QPF amounts tick up or down, do PoP for certain ptypes increase from one run to the next, etc.

 

In truth that's how I use it for convective weather too. Not the absolute values, but the trends in products.

 

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Mainly for trends. Do snow/QPF amounts tick up or down, do PoP for certain ptypes increase from one run to the next, etc.

 

In truth that's how I use it for convective weather too. Not the absolute values, but the trends in products.

 

 

Yeah I find it more useful in the summer for convection to be honest. 

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