CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Has the GFS EVER scored a "coup" as a event was about underway, ever? I know it was upgraded and all.mYes. The blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Has the GFS EVER scored a "coup" as a event was about underway, ever? I know it was upgraded and all. The blizzard 2 weeks ago amid the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Here's the Euro additional QPF after 18Z today... 0.50" N: RUT-LEB-LCI-PWM S: BDL-IJD-PVD-FMH 0.25" is along LI on the south end...CYSC toward EPO on the north end. 0.75" is just offshore Cape Ann and near PVC. So most of us are in that 0.50-0.70" range. This isn't the high res EC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Euro seems to have cut back regionwide with QPF. About 0.5" additional QPF around Hartford/Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Queens gonna queen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 A few of us have realized the incredibly wintry appeal. This weekend. Last night after midnight walking in moderate snow falling straight down with no wind among a deep deep snowpack. Long live winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Rgem started the trend of cutting back in ct, today's runs confirm it. Still a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Queens gonna queen Shall we not look at models and just forecast with hope like you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Rgem started the trend of cutting back in ct, today's runs confirm it. Still a decent event. Yeah I'm looking forward to it. A positive snow depth gain here. Thinking an additional 4-6 here but we'll see. Pretty awesome model agreement with one glaring exception - the GFS is really wildly bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Here's the Euro additional QPF after 18Z today... 0.50" N: RUT-LEB-LCI-PWM S: BDL-IJD-PVD-FMH 0.25" is along LI on the south end...CYSC toward EPO on the north end. 0.75" is just offshore Cape Ann and near PVC. So most of us are in that 0.50-0.70" range. This isn't the high res EC though. Hi-res Euro agrees but has a max of .7-1" inside of an arc roughly halfway between 495 and 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yeah I'm looking forward to it. A positive snow depth gain here. Thinking an additional 4-6 here but we'll see. Pretty awesome model agreement with one glaring exception - the GFS is really wildly bullish. You thinking 4-6" for BDR and HVN as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 At this point, I think it's pretty clear that those looking for widespread foot plus totals will be disappointed and the event will be a bust in that regard. Still though, looks excellent for a warning level snowfall for most of the region which all should be happy with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The timing of this will probably screw up the commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Queens gonna queen What's your forecast from here on out for your neighborhood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 At this point, I think it's pretty clear that those looking for widespread foot plus totals will be disappointed and the event will be a bust in that regard. Still though, looks excellent for a warning level snowfall for most of the region which all should be happy with. Yea, it's snow...net gain. Winter continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 You thinking 4-6" for BDR and HVN as well? I think our going forecast is 2"-4" for BDR/HVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I mean really no question GYX seemed some of "most off" to me yesterday with Box right behind them...wrt to the breadth of those maps. But I would guess these maps are still sorta experimental in nature? The thing with GYX was they were Meh on the event on AFD's from the get go , then when I saw the map with a weaker coastal I was scratching my head double time. At least Box area has some Ocean enhancement and CF Gone are the days where WFOs can really disagree with each other. You're highly unlikely to ever see one office differ too much across the border from their neighbors. There is a lot of effort being put in right now to making the larger scale regional maps seamless across CWA borders. In that sense these maps are still experimental, because we may see them change regarding interpolation schemes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 At this point, I think it's pretty clear that those looking for widespread foot plus totals will be disappointed and the event will be a bust in that regard. Still though, looks excellent for a warning level snowfall for most of the region which all should be happy with. You will be among the 12+ folks I think. But it may not seem like it with the incremental nature of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I think our going forecast is 2"-4" for BDR/HVN. Thanks. I have direct tv so I don't get your channel. Just give me a nice burst of snow tomorrow morning to cover the dirty snow banks and I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 You will be among the 12+ folks I think. But it may not seem like it with the incremental nature of this. I think the public is thoroughly confused at this point. I've seen a lot of social media comments about where is this large winter storm, when will it start to dump and all that. I've had over 6" since Friday night and we've already got the low end of BTV's 6-12" forecast, but people are still wondering "where's the storm?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 You will be among the 12+ folks I think. But it may not seem like it with the incremental nature of this. Yeah I agree. 12"+ is confined to inside 128 and then in the Berkshires/Greens I think. Only need another 8" to hit 12" for us and I think that'll happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I think the public is thoroughly confused at this point. I've seen a lot of social media comments about where is this large winter storm, when will it start to dump and all that. I've had over 6" since Friday night and we've already got the low end of BTV's 6-12" forecast, but people are still wondering "where's the storm?" I will agree on that those 18-24 maps scared a lot of peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 P&C drastically reduced this afternoon to 7-13. Was 9-19 around 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Hrrr is showing about 4 inches in the next 15 hours out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Hrrr is showing about 4 inches in the next 15 hours out this way.we snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 kudos to the mets yesterday who thought this wasnt gonna produce widespread big numbers......qpf queens or not, most locations have been cut by 50 pct already....and some of the sharper more realistic minds here also expressed concerns about poor snow growth....unlike the last system which tossed us a bone at the end, i just dont see this one surprising in a good way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 kudos to the mets yesterday who thought this wasnt gonna produce widespread big numbers......qpf queens or not, most locations have been cut by 50 pct already....and some of the sharper more realistic minds here also expressed concerns about poor snow growth....unlike the last system which tossed us a bone at the end, i just dont see this one surprising in a good way In every bag of popcorn, some kernels won't pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 BOX cut back totals to more like what they were yesterday, but could just be subtracting off what already fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 kudos to the mets yesterday who thought this wasnt gonna produce widespread big numbers......qpf queens or not, most locations have been cut by 50 pct already....and some of the sharper more realistic minds here also expressed concerns about poor snow growth....unlike the last system which tossed us a bone at the end, i just dont see this one surprising in a good way Still the event hasn't changed that much imo. Lets let the precip move into this pm and see what shakes out tonight. I love talking about model trends and things of that nature, but you can't spike the football on big totals prior and ditto to low totals IMO either. Ya I mean I never thought 1.2 QPF where you are had a chance in hell of happening so i'm not surprised it cut back. Ditto Gyx/Box maps if peeps expected those totals then yes they will prob be disappointed but man there is a lot to go with this thing, ramps up next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 BOX cut back totals to more like what they were yesterday, but could just be subtracting off what already fell. It's total snow, so including what already fell. Not a bad map. This storm isn't that radically different for most of us than what it was 12 hours ago. It's going to snow, and for a lot of us it's going to snow a lot. The feel of this thread is as if there is a storm cancel, I don't understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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