Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Late Weekend Storm Threat


IsentropicLift

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The colder trend on the models means that the threat for icing may be limited to a fairly small area over NJ and maybe southern LI and the rest is sleet or snow. South of those areas gets little precip anyway, so there wouldn't be much icing. Sleet is a pain, but nowhere near as hard to drive on and function in as freezing rain. I'm not seeing much reason for optimism in terms of snow around NYC, maybe an inch or two between this upcoming batch and the end. If you add an inch or two of snow with 2-3" of sleet (sleet is 3-1 ratio), you get 3-5" total for the storm. 

 

I don't see places warming above freezing that remain on NE winds (edit-maybe eastern LI as jbenedet pointed out). If there's no mechanism at the surface to warm the air up and winds remain off cold, snowcovered land, I don't see how it can warm up enough for rain. And the precip rates won't be heavy enough to warm the air through latent heating. I could see around I-78 and parts of LI coming close to warning criteria freezing rain-hopefully the cold air can be thick enough at the ground for sleet. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's still a big difference between the sound and the immediate Western Atlantic. While the ocean is cold, a wind right off these waters would, imo warm the surface above freezing. The easterly component is also more pronounced further east...

 

 

 

I understand...but see above post regarding the overarching influence of the Hudson Bay High / arctic anticyclone easily overcoming that type of thing and the reference to it being sufficiently influential to allow snow far down the southern NJ coast and the Delmarva & Norfolk VA...with far more open ocean and vastly longer fetches over warmer waters....*not this case specifically*...but as a general assessment of that type of air masses impact. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at instant weather maps 12 inches is shown on those clown maps in NNJ nw of 287...however we clearly don't belive clown maps. This storm tho for our area is not over. Onto the GGEM

gfs just had the best run for nyc so far at least at a believable timeframe. I think the snowstorm for the city is still on the table.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I understand...but see above post regarding the overarching influence of the Hudson Bay High / arctic anticyclone easily overcoming that type of thing and the reference to it being sufficiently influential to allow snow far down the southern NJ coast and the Delmarva & Norfolk VA...with far more open ocean and vastly longer fetches over warmer waters....*not this case specifically*...but as a general assessment of that type of air masses impact. 

BTW at hour 51 you are snowing at hour  54 you are probably sitting under Mod  snow. I can`t post the SV map . maybe someone else can

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NYC close to 0.75" liquid on this GFS run and the 850 low takes a further south track to near NYC. This could flip it over to snow long enough for maybe a few inches. Let's see what other models have, but I think rain is going to be quite limited with this at this rate.

yeah John I don't see any rain with this system for NYC.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

How far south does the snow get in your opinion?

 

Its hard to say...but I doubt any further south than northern Monmouth & Middlesex Counties...I'm sort of leaning towards Staten Island...it will have to be fine tuned. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Part of the heavier precip on the GFS is also likely due to the stronger high-stronger high providing more surface cold, more overrunning and more precip.

Models always underdo precip south of a strong arctic high when there is a surface reflection, it's one of the most underrated model weaknesses. They usually catch on somewhat in the short range but often still underdo it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...