Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 SREF's (3z) looks wet on Monday, I think...I rarely look at that model...and navigating the pages is a little different. Edit: 6z NAM also edging south. 6z NAM looks strangely dry after 60 hours or so despite surface disturbance passing to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 6z NAM looks strangely dry after 60 hours or so despite surface disturbance passing to our south. But the NAM has edged south...on Friday's 12z run, good snows started at the VT / MA border...on the 6z run this morning...they are now as close as far northern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 But the NAM has edged south...on Friday's 12z run, good snows started at the VT / MA border...on the 6z run this morning...they are now as close as far northern CT. 6z RGEM also dropped the good snow line south...from northern CT at 0z to practically the Bridgeport / New Haven area at 6z through 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 A bit of an odd setup. I have an odd feeling, just a shame the 850 low is looking to setup horrifically. But a 50mi shift south would absolutely wreck forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 6z GFS went in the other direction...edging north by 5 or 10 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Euro was still cold and further south with low track over night. All frozen from Ttn north. 2-4 for all of nj and 4-6 nyc Li northern nj Some of that may be sleet. .25+ .50 brushing nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Eps is def further south then 12z yesterday...surface 32 stays below nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Gfs surface low well south too...but doesn't matter only about 0.3 - 0.4" QPF and little of that snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Upton is still forecasting high temps to be well above freezing for NYC and Western Long Island on Sunnday and Monday so im assuming we'll get mostly rain...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Upton is still forecasting high temps to be well above freezing for NYC and Western Long Island on Sunnday and Monday so im assuming we'll get mostly rain...... Agreed this basically a non - event for most of the immediate NYC metro and points south and east - some frozen mixed in but should cause no problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Upton is still forecasting high temps to be well above freezing for NYC and Western Long Island on Sunnday and Monday so im assuming we'll get mostly rain...... upton was also forecasting 2-3 feet of snow for parts of Nj during the storm on the 26th and they got a couple inches...some ppl never learn smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/ low track clusters http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif more than a few 72 hr progs + + + ++ ++ ++ \/ are south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Agreed this basically a non - event for most of the immediate NYC metro and points south and east - some frozen mixed in but should cause no problems Did you look at the latest models? Nyc is pretty icy on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 The radar doesn't look half bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The seasonal snowfall spread will continue to widen between Philly and Boston. seasonal snowfall totals to date Boston.......54.2" Philly..........5.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The radar doesn't look half bad Yea I noticed that, maybe we can squeeze something out? Certainly smells like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The seasonal snowfall spread will continue to widen between Philly and Boston. seasonal snowfall totals to date Boston.......54.2" Philly..........5.2" This is acting like a La Nina winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 The radar is really blossoming just to our West, I wonder if any of that is reaching the ground? It looks quite a bit further south than most of the modeling had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/DIX/OHA/DIX.OHA.20150207.1330.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Anyone know what the short term models are showing for today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Explosive returns blossoming over NJ and SE NY in the last 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This is acting like a La Nina winter The spread is going to be even wider after this next storm than you typically see during a La Nina winter. 07-08 Boston......51.2" Philly.........6.3" 08-09 Boston.....65.9" Philly........22.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The spread is going to be even wider after this next storm than you typically see during a La Nina winter. 07-08 Boston......51.2" Philly.........6.3" 08-09 Boston.....65.9" Philly........22.8" Is this going to be Boston's snowiest winter? Looks like NYC will finish above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The spread is going to be even wider after this next storm than you typically see during a La Nina winter. 07-08 Boston......51.2" Philly.........6.3" 08-09 Boston.....65.9" Philly........22.8" I think 1970-71 had the largest difference between NYC and Boston for snowfall...Philadelphia had less I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The radar is really blossoming just to our West, I wonder if any of that is reaching the ground? It looks quite a bit further south than most of the modeling had.i was just thinking the same thing. My thinking is if this first batch of snow is further south which no model had snow this morning down to philly (wonder if it's reaching ground will check and post after) the following batch should be further south too. At this point now casting is the best bet... Let me check obs. From southeast Pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Here we go again with the ice WPC is tossing the Nam and GFS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~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ink to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 i was just thinking the same thing. My thinking is if this first batch of snow is further south which no model had snow this morning down to philly (wonder if it's reaching ground will check and post after) the following batch should be further south too. At this point now casting is the best bet... Let me check obs. From southeast Pa. I'll spare you the time right now...here in NEPA, we got no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I'll spare you the time right now...here in NEPA, we got no precip.scranton reporting light snow. Same batch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Your in Hazelton, Pa there's literally a dry slot on top of you. Everyone else is snowing around you. http://m.weather.com/mapcenter_local/USPA1796 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 scranton reporting light snow. Same batch. In Florida, but snow cam shows steady light snow falling in highland lakes at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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