subdude Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Euro has had it in one form or another for 3 consecutive runs. It's coming yep, bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I think so far this has been the season of the consensus. Many years it's been everything tugging toward the Euro sooner or later once the Euro locks in first. Lately, and this may just be my perception, but it's actually seemed more like middle ground is the way to go. And right now middle ground is a sort of 3-6/4-8 east-ish hit, especially given that the Euro has ticked east a couple times from a prior solution that gave a bit of rain here initially. Unless the GFS ticks west substantially AND the Euro maintains its solution or presents something more amplified at 12z, the goalposts are relatively narrow with the higher end potentials on the outside looking given the relatively short time frame for wiggle room. Absolutely agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Not a whole lot of moisture in the pack, though...that is one aspect in which this season trails 2011. Good point--but if you keep building you'll still have a ton of water in it. Looks like a decent event taking shape for the easterners. I'd love some crazy amping, but that does not appear to be in the cards. 7.8/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I think so far this has been the season of the consensus. Many years it's been everything tugging toward the Euro sooner or later once the Euro locks in first. Lately, and this may just be my perception, but it's actually seemed more like middle ground is the way to go. And right now middle ground is a sort of 3-6/4-8 east-ish hit, especially given that the Euro has ticked east a couple times from a prior solution that gave a bit of rain here initially. Unless the GFS ticks west substantially AND the Euro maintains its solution or presents something more amplified at 12z, the goalposts are relatively narrow with the higher end potentials on the outside looking given the relatively short time frame for wiggle room. That middle ground is high impact given the background. Incidentally the euro had the amped rain solution for one run and ticked back to the latest which mirrors the prior run fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The RGEM looks like it would swing up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Incidentally albeit beyond its actual range and beyond its useful range RGEM looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 The RGEM looks like it would swing up the coast Not a bad look , I hate to extrapolate, But it looks like it would at least get eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Just not buying the euro. Even if you take a euro/gfs split, it's only decent for eastern areas, yet again. I need to see 12z gfs come in significantly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 my kids both had 2hr delay Oakmont and Monty Tech.Quabbin as well. A bus was rear ended by a car this morning. Opps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Yeah the RGEM would be a hit looking at 48h...still a bit out of range, but you'd rather see that then a flat solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Not a bad look , I hate to extrapolate, But it looks like it would at least get eastern areas That's exactly what I mentioned this morning,. You can totally see/envision how those separate pieces of moisture are going to "blossom" right over New England..beautiful interaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This is going to be one of those deals of the euro standing up and telling all the models to stfu I'm still king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 That's exactly what I mentioned this morning,. You can totally see/envision how those separate pieces of moisture are going to "blossom" right over New England..beautiful interaction Yeah, You can see the kink in those isobars are to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 RGEM looks like it would get alot of us with something guessing the gfs shifts west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 This is going to be one of those deals of the euro standing up and telling all the models to stfu I'm still king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This is going to be one of those deals of the euro standing up and telling all the models to stfu I'm still king. I hope you're right but I wont believe it until it nails it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Only 6 hours in but I notice changes on the GFS, it is going to dig the shortwave farther S this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'm moving to Eastport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'm moving to Eastport Would be a good time to take a ride from here down east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Stronger looking s/w down south on the 12z GFS, Should help this come west one would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Quite true. You could practically walk on top of the pack in 2011 Down here at work their pack won't go anywhere for a while, looks like they had about .25 freezing rain with 4-6 on top of that. Preservation city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Eastport is a mega pit albeit a snowy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I called it only 6 hours in, you could tell the shortwave was orientated farther SW, not sure it is going to go all EURO, but it is def taking a step towards it. FWIW the 12z RGEM looked great @ 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Definitely going to be better then 06z, Trough digging a little further south, Stronger s/w coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 RGEM looks much better than the NAM. Let's face it the NAM is prone to falling apart after 36 3 to 6 hours, so it may be shearing stuff out as usual beyond about 42 hours and that prevents it from being able to make the turn. I think it either flips over or it doesn't...IE the solutions will all suddenly come to a 6+ or it just won't come together and it's a flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Everything trending to the euro. I'm not like the rest of you. I'm loyal...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 12z GFS gets the eastern areas with some snow this run good move in a positive direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Everything trending to the euro. I'm not like the rest of you. I'm loyal...lol. Euro is also moved towards everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 There isn't much room for this one, so I'm staying on the lower end for this one...advisory snows or less. But admittedly, there's some potential for it to pop just in time for a bigger event...esp for eastern folk and up into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 GFS is folding to the King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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