Rjay Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I see you edited the post to make it more clear. It's no problem. And again I should have directed it at NEXtreme since he said that it looked like rain to only people that were model hugging. The key thing that made the difference was the backend snow, obviously. Take away those 2 to 4 inches on the backend, and 2 to 4 forecasts for the event would have verified. The mixing line came in on schedule after the front end thump. Maybe even slightly ahead of schedule. I went over to sleet a little after 3am, and NYC was shortly after that. I only got 3.5 here because that backend snow missed me to the east. So JM was on the money as far as the mixing coming in quickly as it warmed upstairs, but people that called for more ended up being right because of the impressive back end. We know back end snows rarely work out for NYC, but thankfully for snow lovers it did this time. I though there was no way the coast wouldn't rain for an extended period and in fact it did. With mid level centers closed off to our nw, we new there would be significant mid level warming. The surface winds out of the ESE it wasn't a giant leap to lean towards the warmer more rainy solutions especially for the city and coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 You pretty much have to figure out a way to get ice melt. Unless you have a metal edged shovel there's no way you're getting through this. This is a great investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Yes, indeed. It's been a remarkable stretch past 7 winters. According to Islip's F6 monthly climate report available here (http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx), Islip had 24.5" in Feb 2014. Also there is another month to add to the list - Jan 2014 with 25.2"! Suffolk county has been roll since December 2009 with 6 over 20" months at Islip. Islip monthly snow Dec...09....25.3" Feb...10....21.7" Jan...11....34.4" Feb...13....31.4" Feb...14....21.0" Jan...15....30.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It's like a skating rink outside. Everything is iced over. I tried shovel but it was no use. You need a Jebman shovel. A Jebman shovel is a construction-grade, square-edged steel shovel with a reinforced fiberglass handle. It can handle any snow, slush and ice jobs you will encounter in any New England winter. You should have at least five, especially in the New England region. You can smash ice to smithereens with this type of shovel. It will not blunt the shovel. Forget those plastic shovels. Those are for five year olds. Get a true New Englander's shovel. With it you can break ice and shovel snow like The Jebman! Once you have a Jebman shovel, this is what winter will feel like (Crank this up to 170 decibels for the full effect): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Went through 40lbs of salt in a day with this past storm. Probably used 20lbs too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I was looking at the snow totals for yesterday and every reporting station in the city had over 4.5 inches except CPK. They really need to change that location. It's to the point that i seen people argue about it on the NWS upton facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 No model or forecaster had the intensity of the back end snow yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 No model or forecaster had the intensity of the back end snow yesterday. Dan...this statement may be just a bit subjective http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45531-post-super-bowl-storm-chance-discussion/page-47#entry3324962 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It rained plenty near the coast and it got above freezing there and in the city. The coastal low developed sooner than most models expected and turned the winds back around to the north, and helped develop the heavy snow band that tacked on 2-4 more inches. It wasn't "model hugging" at all to think there would be more rain. That's how many of these SWFE type events end up for our area, and the NAO/AO/PNA still aren't in a favorable place for us. The warmer air coming in at 800-900 MB really limited the snowfall potential for this storm as we lost a good chunk of the total precipitation to rain or a mix. A more west based block or a less amplified system could have easily resulted in over a foot area wide. Total precip.....snow EWR.....1.17...4.6" LGA......1.12...6.6" JFK.......1.21...4.7" ISP.......1.43....5.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 8" here on 1.06 liquid. Assuming the gage caught it all. At first glace liquid seems a bit low given the amount of R/ZR, but the backend 4" snow was high ratio fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 8" here on 1.06 liquid. Assuming the gage caught it all. At first glace liquid seems a bit low given the amount of R/ZR, but the backend 4" snow was high ratio fluff. Are you doing your snow total PDF this Year. I like to look at it . I live pretty close to you.I measure my snow each storm but do not keep records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Anyone have a flamethrower to melt all of this ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 No model or forecaster had the intensity of the back end snow yesterday. 12z Canadian Saturday but it was alone and there wasn`t much reason to believe it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Remember when it was supposed to be close to zero this morning? Yea, models have been busting pretty badly with temps in both directions lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 record snowfall for the date yesterday in Newark, LGA, JFK...Central Park recorded 3.3"...The record is 5.0" in 1874...4.3" fell in 1985 on the 2nd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Are you doing your snow total PDF this Year. I like to look at it . I live pretty close to you.I measure my snow each storm but do not keep records Absolutely. I updated it with yesterday's storm: http://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateData/SmithtownDailySnowfall.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It rained plenty near the coast and it got above freezing there and in the city. The coastal low developed sooner than most models expected and turned the winds back around to the north, and helped develop the heavy snow band that tacked on 2-4 more inches. It wasn't "model hugging" at all to think there would be more rain. That's how many of these SWFE type events end up for our area, and the NAO/AO/PNA still aren't in a favorable place for us. You & I took more or less opposite views on how it would play out; I'd say we were each about half right, more or less. The temp topped out at 32 F here on the N.S. yesterday morning...we might have had plain rain for an hour...but it was freezing rain for the rest of the morning before going back to snow in the afternoon. That was clearly a tough high for the storm to try to push backwards...it made a dent...but the CT coast never got passed the mid 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 You & I took more or less opposite views on how it would play out; I'd say we were each about half right, more or less. The temp topped out at 32 F here on the N.S. yesterday morning...we might have had plain rain for an hour...but it was freezing rain for the rest of the morning before going back to snow in the afternoon. That was clearly a tough high for the storm to try to push backwards...it made a dent...but the CT coast never got passed the mid 20's. When models are trending warmer and north as the event comes in, it's hard to argue against it, especially when the NYC area has a history with SWFEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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