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mackerel_sky

Fab February Banter

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In years past I've heard the NAM was good at CAD setups (of course in the short term).

Well we cant get much "shorter term" than 24 hours out. We will be looking at nowcasting for areas to the sw by tonight. So if the models arent seeing the ridiculous cold already in place then i wouldnt be putting too much faith in storm tracks right now. I mean really, it is 23 in the triad at 1:30 pm. Do you know how often that happens....on a SUNNY day no less?

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Are the models like the Euro, UK, and GFS accurately capturing the temps and dew points that are currently in place? If not, there may indeed be implications for temps and track tomorrow/Tuesday. If they are, then we can't rely on them underestimating the cold tomorrow.

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I'm still waiting for the day I get a good bust, instead of a bad one.  Nature owes me one after last years sleet disaster!  Why can't I go from expecting an inch of fzrn to getting a foot of snow?  Now that I said that, we will prob get 2" of rain!

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Are the models like the Euro, UK, and GFS accurately capturing the temps and dew points that are currently in place? If not, there may indeed be implications for temps and track tomorrow/Tuesday. If they are, then we can't rely on them underestimating the cold tomorrow.

I just asked the same question earlier in the thread. This is epic cold in place. Mother Nature needs a fleet of D10 dozers to dislodge it. I think a more rational solution is the low rotates underneath. So i guess the amateur in me needs to understand what forces will enable the low to shift north in spite of the CAD in place, and which models incorporate existing temps the best.

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Well, the mets I follow on FB, Youtube, and on here all seem pretty confident that I am sitting in a significant ice storm area. Thank goodness for you all! Going to prepare today. This  is not what I had hoped for, but it seems to be happening and so I am going to the store. I've got kids and it appears they will be home for the week. Depending on how this unfolds, I may be home after tomorrow as well.  

 

I'd like to mention that I quite like having heat and electricity so I hope this isn't too bad.  Being indoors for a few days because of bad roads is one thing, but I was in Charlotte in Dec of 2002 and so ice storms freak me out a bit now. I had JUST moved to Charlotte from San Diego a couple of months before that storm in '02 and thought I'd moved to hell. Good thing this doesn't happen often and even though this looks bad, it doesn't appear to be as bad as that epic storm. I hope not anyhow!

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I'm still waiting for the day I get a good bust, instead of a bad one.  Nature owes me one after last years sleet disaster!  Why can't I go from expecting an inch of fzrn to getting a foot of snow?  Now that I said that, we will prob get 2" of rain!

 

No, I agree - bust in a good way FTW! We had that cold rain a few Friday's ago and it was miserable. I don't want ice, but not keen on that either. If I had to pick, I don't know....I guess the rain. I am good with a little ice but the words "Significant Ice Storm" have me a little worried. How lovely would a good bust and half a foot of snow be right now? :)

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YES...listen to that. WOO. 2'fer baby:

 

A 6'fer even! This made me laugh so hard. Haha!

 

I heard thundersnow once. I think it was in 2004 - in Charlotte. I don't remember if it was Jan or Feb, but we had like 19" of snow imby.  It was the storm that parked itself over NC and just kept spinning and spinning for days. 

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YES...listen to that. WOO. 2'fer baby:

 

He should have been here in 04. Had thunder snow for well over two hours.  Bright, loud, and often.  The deformation band came in from the south and hit a wall. Just sat here and gave me 20" at 4" an hour rates, while less than 15 miles north at the airport, they ended up somewhere around six inches total.

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Is that our little friend sitting down there in TX ya think? We should be getting much better data this afternoon. I am very eager to see how our DPs fare across the region overnight. I think we stay locked in CAD for the long haul. Once we have snow cover that essentially reinforces the cold for Tuesday.

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Is that our little friend sitting down there in TX ya think? We should be getting much better data this afternoon. I am very eager to see how our DPs fare across the region overnight. I think we stay locked in CAD for the long haul. Once we have snow cover that essentially reinforces the cold for Tuesday.

I agree with you. I just don't think the CAD is going to erode. I'm pretty confident we'll see 3-5 inches in our area before we switch over.

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He should have been here in 04. Had thunder snow for well over two hours.  Bright, loud, and often.  The deformation band came in from the south and hit a wall. Just sat here and gave me 20" at 4" an hour rates, while less than 15 miles north at the airport, they ended up somewhere around six inches total.

 

Yep. Same storm I was thinking of too. Was that Jan or Feb 2004? I can never remember. It was the most snow I'd seen at one time in my life. I was living in Cabarrus county, just north of the speedway. 

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Are the models like the Euro, UK, and GFS accurately capturing the temps and dew points that are currently in place? If not, there may indeed be implications for temps and track tomorrow/Tuesday. If they are, then we can't rely on them underestimating the cold tomorrow.

They are overestimating the cold here. Our forecast high was 52 today and it's 59 here. Hell it might be 80 at this rate tomorrow. :lol:

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I am seriously wondering what it would take for 85 (Atl - GSO - RDU) to get a good solid snowfall. I hear tell it has happened before, but this is a serious cold shot with low dps and a big time low pressure, but we still can't get it. The cold is spposed to help keep the SLP to the south and the cold is in place with more coming. How can it not happen?

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So for anybody who has experienced an ice storm in college, what's losing power while being in a dorm like? Probably need to start making some accommodationa

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Yep. Same storm I was thinking of too. Was that Jan or Feb 2004? I can never remember. It was the most snow I'd seen at one time in my life. I was living in Cabarrus county, just north of the speedway. 

Feb 27, 2004.  

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I hope we don't have an issue with kids getting out of school tomorrow. Most of the time there is a period where the roads are still mostly wet and they can shuttle everyone home. I don't think that is going to be the case this time.

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They are overestimating the cold here. Our forecast high was 52 today and it's 59 here. Hell it might be 80 at this rate tomorrow. :lol:

Haha! It's always warmer than forecast in Waycross. :)

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