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NOT DC/NOVA discussion


JMU2004

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soo who's going to be the first news cast to cut down the totals.. looks like some moisture is being robbed by all the energy/ storms down there..

I'm not too worried yet. The energy transfer to the coastal is underway. A lot of models picked up on a gap in heavier precip. This has been the concern for those north and west for a while now. A lot of short range models have shown a sizeable dry slot over the past few runs setting up in the Shenandoah Valley area.

All that said, I always though 6-8 was a good goal for us. I hope I'm wrong and we're ripping dendrites at 2AM :)

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This image captures what we need to happen for double digits. In the wee hours of the morning, notice how the orientation of the precip field changes from west-east to more SW-NE. This is the low off the coast doing its thing. This is when we should really cash in. On the other hand, I could just stop worrying about it and enjoy our first legit storm in five years haha

post-2926-0-39458400-1424137530_thumb.jp

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3.5" at 9pm. Looks amazing outside.

For fun I've been using the 22Z HRRR as a reference point. (That's the first model run in which it started snowing for us in real time) That model had RIC at 3" at 9pm, so I think we're still on track. It also had RIC getting to 10" when all was set and done.

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