JMU2004 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Had to be done. GO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 All hail the Canadians! I'm riding the CMC until it throws me off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'll be curious to see the Ensembles. Euro has a well known bias to amp things up...and God did it suck on the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TYFNGUY Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Finally! Now this is something I can get behind. I need someone to celebrate with when we get a win for central VA/ se VA on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Tough to say, but it's the first time a -NAO showed up on the models in time for a storm. This COULD trend south once the PV push and NAO forecasts become a bit more clear. As it stands, I'd say 460 and north are still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Welcome. This is a place to go where you won't have the usual DC/Nova asshats thumbing their nose at anything outside of their narrow view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Glad this got started, the main thread is nothing but a NOVa-Baltimore group. Thanks for doing this. We got a funny, funny as in it takes a miracle to snow apparently, climate down here. Either too far north or south usually. Can be tough but who knows, optimism abounds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Just FYI, I've beaten DCA 5/5 and IAD/BWI 3/5 last winters with snow accumulation. Central Virginia- we're just one massive snow town. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 how happy would you guys be to not only get smoked with an awesome snow storm but also Virginia crushes the Dukies. I hope both happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 That would make for an excellent weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yay, other folks who are excluded whenever "everyone" or "the entire region" gets thrown around on the rest of the forum! how happy would you guys be to not only get smoked with an awesome snow storm but also Virginia crushes the Dukies. I hope both happen Amen to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Those of you on Facebook, a number of us also frequent the "Not DC/NOVA Weather" group over there. I do my best to keep it from devolving into a "how much for X" place or a "DT you're a fooking idiot" place, but there are definitely some weenies and less-knowledgeable folks there. We'll try to keep this thread worthwhile, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We are pretty awesome. How many regions can miss snow in the number of ways that we do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Best week of winter coming up it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Best week of winter coming up it seems best of luck to you guys over there. just let me have your snow scraps please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Trying not to get too excited, but this is definitely the best potential we've seen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's going to be close. 12gfs made a big move NW. Looks like RIC is going to be the place to be for this one. Although by the time this is all said and done the DC crew will probably be looking at a 3-6" event and will still b*tch about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's going to be close. 12gfs made a big move NW. Looks like RIC is going to be the place to be for this one. Although by the time this is all said and done the DC crew will probably be looking at a 3-6" event and will still b*tch about it. Thus as it ever was... DC will b**ch about whatever they get if it's not a repeat of 1/30/10 - 2/10/10 ... DT will make up radar shots about the precip hole over his house (that doesn't really exist), and RIC Airport will b**ch about how the jungle gets more snow than Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA427 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015.SYNOPSIS...(snip).LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TUE/WED. BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVE PATTERN ON MONDAY BROKEN BY PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FROM THERE, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO GET MORE INTERESTING ONCE AGAIN. GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL TAKE SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN GULF COAST LATE MONDAY ALONG THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN INTO TUE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND COLDER AS SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERALL, CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT MODELS ARE HANDLING SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE POORLY, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POWERFUL VORTEX CROSSING THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AND SECOND PIECE OF STRONG ENERGY THAT WILL RE-AMPLIFY THE FLOW IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED COASTAL CAROLINA TRACK FOR SFC LOW, WHICH WOULD PORTEND TO SOME INTERESTING WINTER WX ISSUES BY THE TIME WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS TIMING HAS BEEN LARGELY PRESERVED FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT AND WED. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS MON NIGHT...AND WILL BRING A CHC FOR PRECIP (SNOW SHRAS) AFTER 06Z/TUE AS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE SW. OVERALL, THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES, AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK VICE OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST AND WPC TRACK. WENT WITH A MIXED GUIDANCE OPTION WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED OVERALL PATTERN BY LATER TUE ACRS THE CONUS. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM EXISTS FOR AT LEAST THE NRN/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA. AS COLD AS THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE TUE MORNING...P-TYPE TUE MORNING WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW (OR IP/ZR) OVER MOST OF THE REGION...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN ACRS SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP PERSISTS OVER NW PORTIONS (ESPECIALLY THE PIEDMONT)...WITH A CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE TAPERING PCPN OFF WED MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THINGS SIMPLE AND GENLY GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS P-TYPES AND WILL FINE TUNE THIS AS EVENT GETS CLOSER AND IF A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ZR DEVELOPS. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE SFC HIGH SLIDING OFF THE MID ATL COAST IS NOT TYPICALLY FAVORABLE TO LOCK COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR THE AKQ CWA...A LOT OF WARMING WILL BE NECESSARY TO CHANGE P-TYPE TO ALL RAIN FOR CNTRL AND NW SECTIONS OF THE FA GIVEN HOW COLD THINGS ARE INITIALLY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT INTO MIDDAY WED ACRS AREAS NW OF RICHMOND...MAINLY RAIN AFTER THE INITIAL FROZEN PRECIP ACRS FAR SE ZONES. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...AREAS IN BETWEEN INCLUDING METRO RICHMOND WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING...AND FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A CLIMO-TYPE SOLUTION WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE REACHING METRO RICHMOND LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING BACK TO MAINLY SNOW LATER TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. PLENTY OF TIME TO HASH OUT DETAILS AS THIS POTENTIAL STORM IS STILL 4 DAYS OUT. HIGHS TUE IN THE NR 30F W AND NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F FAR SE. MORE UNCERTAINTY WED...GFS WOULD SUGGEST A DRY COLD DAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS PRECIP LIKELY ALL DAY. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 18Z...WITH CHC POPS FARTHER INLAND. STILL COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F NE NC COAST. REMAINING COLD BUT DRYING OUT THU WITH HIGHS AGAIN ONLY IN THE 20S TO ARND 30F AFTER LOWS IN THE TEENS TO THE L20S THU MORNING. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Model trends have been kind to us in the southern half of VA. Solutions starting to converge on a 3-6in event for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This thread is dead, but I think this is our best chance of the year. Wakefield playing it safe with 1-3 though. It'd be nice to see the 12Z GFS trend to a solution similar to the Euro at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't think you guys in RIC want this shifting North unless you want in on the sleet fest we are probably going to have down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah, RIC is pretty screwed at this point, if you believe the majority of folks in the main storm thread. This winter just isn't a winner for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's rather comical, really....because like usual, the winter forecasts for this year looked good, and the teleconnections supported that. But everything hasn't come together right. That's why we have rain or sunshine and New England has been buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I actually think we're still OK. Just very little margin for anymore north movement. It definitely looks like RIC could have some sleet in the middle of the storm, but that's the price you pay by being so close to the heavy stuff. That said, we could definitely see this turn to a sleet fest if the models move much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I actually think we're still OK. Just very little margin for anymore north movement. It definitely looks like RIC could have some sleet in the middle of the storm, but that's the price you pay by being so close to the heavy stuff. That said, we could definitely see this turn to a sleet fest if the models move much further north. That's my point, is that everyone there seems highly convinced that the canadian high pressure is going to pull out really fast and that it's going to keep moving north. By this evening, we could be looking at a 1-3 incher, and then by tomorrow, ice or nothing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Or it could trend back South 30-50miles. We are on the southern fringe no doubt, so QPF is not a concern. But we are also not waiting for the cold to move in, which is huge in my mind. Slow down the cold retreat by 3-6hrs and we get a good thump. Also just judging from the past, models tend to want to erode the CAD too quickly. So it would not surprise me to some southern correction as we get within 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordonheimer Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Starting to get a little nervous! An ice storm would be brutal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like the GFS is just a tick colder on this run. Doesn't change over until after 6z Tue. so probably 2-4 inches then ice. Might avoid a crippling ice storm in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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