BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Call me crazy but Im still not that worried..we see this all the time where models show some consistency about 4 days out and then they change just to go back to what it showed 4 days out. I think this will trend back south with time...call it wishful thinking, I just feel it. right on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z runs tomorrow will have a QLCS ripping through Sunday night in the warm sector. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I said at the 12Z Euro today that we were only 50 miles away from a shut-out. Didn't really understand all the optimism then to be modeled in such a precarious position. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's obvious what is happening here. This is the Euro's storm. Redemption for last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The writing was on the wall 6 weeks ago.. seasonal trends are the answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Perfect example of why we never want to be in the bullseye too early? Anyway, hoping the H gets better established and shoves our precip back at us tomorrow. Praying anyway. Night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z runs tomorrow will have a QLCS ripping through Sunday night in the warm sector. Lol I wish the technical Glossaries would include more abbreviations. Thank goodness for Google. The deep South can have one of those squall lines by all means! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Every storm has had an off model hour around this time when everybody jumps overboard in my experience (except 2009-10). It's not a great trend, but to completely rule out a couple inches of snow would be equally as foolish at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I wish the technical Glossaries would include more abbreviations. Thank goodness for Google. The deep South can have one of those squall lines by all means! Going back to the previous runs, maybe not. What a complete 180 for 0zzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Every storm has had an off model hour around this time when everybody jumps overboard in my experience (except 2009-10). It's not a great trend, but to completely rule out a couple inches of snow would be equally as foolish at this point. Even in 2010 I remember people on the ledge of the plank because of a NAM run the night before the storm that showed one of the Feb Blizzards getting squeezed south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z runs tomorrow will have a QLCS ripping through Sunday night in the warm sector. Lol As some of the runs did a few days ago, lol! Still, I'm going to remain quasi-optimistic. Whether there's a separate HP center north of us or not...that's some awfully cold air to work with at lower levels not far to our north going into Sunday afternoon -- certainly some real good evap cooling potential for a while. I'm not saying the system should be overly suppressed, but goodness, I just think those heights to the north are a bit too high all things considered. And the SLP track from KY ene, up and over the central Apps mind you, just doesn't seem that realistic considering the degree of antecedent cold air/low wetbulbs in place at the onset. Either there really isn't much in-situ CAD to work with (hard to believe), or the NAM/GFS aren't just handling it very well. Not saying this won't play out as advertised by the 00Z NAM/GFS and 18Z GEFS mean...I just wouldn't be shocked to see a southward trend (yet again) beginning at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 How many 18 ensemble members showed this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The most concerning thing is the problem we are facing started showing early in both the gfs and nam. By 48-54 hours you could see the hp to the north not pressing as hard and 500 heights ticked further north. It wasn't a last minute thing. These kinds of trends are not something you want to see at such short leads. I'm not writing anything off but I'm no longer expecting 6-10" of cold powder to appear again. We're inside of 72 hours before onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 How many 18 ensemble members showed this 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 wowza all the model hugger's are out tonight. i didn't know one run of the gfs was going to be a actual forecast. what ever happened to going with the guts and not taking every detail out of guidance. Me personally i am happy with the GFS being where its at rather then suppressed. ill use the last storm as a example. amp amp amp only to fall back near the arrival of the storm hence why phi-nyc got screwed. It happens with many storms and we all remember the one that hurt in 2011. . Models will waffle around for awhile In the end i am willing to bet it is a good track for the MID ATL By storm time. everyone needs a 6+ storm bad on here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm not sure I see the trend. The models moved north. Then they moved south. Now they're moving north again. The rain / snow line bounces around. Three days to go. It will move some more. It will be interesting to see what the Euro shows tonight. It was the most northern of all the 12z runs. Did it just pick up on what is happening early, or will it move north again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The most concerning thing is the problem we are facing started showing early in both the gfs and nam. By 48-54 hours you could see the hp to the north not pressing as hard and 500 heights ticked further north. It wasn't a last minute thing. These kinds of trends are not something you want to see at such short leads. I'm not writing anything off but I'm no longer expecting 6-10" of cold powder to appear again. We're inside of 72 hours before onset.It will appear in 2 hours on tonight's Euro don't fret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The most concerning thing is the problem we are facing started showing early in both the gfs and nam. By 48-54 hours you could see the hp to the north not pressing as hard and 500 heights ticked further north. It wasn't a last minute thing. These kinds of trends are not something you want to see at such short leads. I'm not writing anything off but I'm no longer expecting 6-10" of cold powder to appear again. We're inside of 72 hours before onset. Im not saying you are wrong but is 72 hours really that short of a lead anymore? Tell that to Philly and NYC Lol 12 hours wasnt even a short lead for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The most concerning thing is the problem we are facing started showing early in both the gfs and nam. By 48-54 hours you could see the hp to the north not pressing as hard and 500 heights ticked further north. It wasn't a last minute thing. These kinds of trends are not something you want to see at such short leads. I'm not writing anything off but I'm no longer expecting 6-10" of cold powder to appear again. We're inside of 72 hours before onset. yeah.. i don't think the trends are good. getting gfs/euro to lockstep at d3 used to be good enough to not lose it instantly. maybe the models are getting worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hot off the press Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 yeah.. i don't think the trends are good. getting gfs/euro to lockstep at d3 used to be good enough to not lose it instantly. maybe the models are getting worse. Trends is when it show's up 2 3 runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Trends is when it show's up 2 3 runs in a row well, trend as defined... not sure models do that at all. i mostly meant once things start to look bad for us under three days they rarely come back great. you've lived here a while so i don't need to tell you that. the pattern is good, though moving and not necessarily having the pieces in the right spots at the right time.. it's just a trickle for now. if the Euro holds at least we can hug it for a few runs before it gives up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 yeah.. i don't think the trends are good. getting gfs/euro to lockstep at d3 used to be good enough to not lose it instantly. maybe the models are getting worse. I'm definitely not taking the gfs as gospel. And I don't think we're instantly doomed but this setup has the risk and I didn't like the 18z gefs mean track ticking north like it did. Both the gefs and euro ens had a defined cluster into WVA and overhead. It was a minority cluster but it was enough to take notice. The ns vort on the gfs was stronger than 18z and heights were slightly higher in front. Logically slp went north. If the vort is weaker then things change. We're walking the line for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 CMC looks fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'll take the GGEM and run..just gorgeous. Hopefully the American suite just had a blip of some sort..it's happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm definitely not taking the gfs as gospel. And I don't think we're instantly doomed but this setup has the risk and I didn't like the 18z gefs mean track ticking north like it did. Both the gefs and euro ens had a defined cluster into WVA and overhead. It was a minority cluster but it was enough to take notice. The ns vort on the gfs was stronger than 18z and heights were slightly higher in front. Logically slp went north. If the vort is weaker then things change. We're walking the line for now. the euro will probably purple us and people will talk about all time records.. then do so again tomorrow. then it'll rain. it's a good reminder it's hard to go all in at 3 days if nothing else.. like we needed one given what just happened but we're slow sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The gfs has never handled big highs Well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 the euro will probably purple us and people will talk about all time records.. then do so again tomorrow. then it'll rain. it's a good reminder it's hard to go all in at 3 days if nothing else.. like we needed one given what just happened but we're slow sometimes. Euro should be a no brainer 3 days out. The model didn't get worse for no reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 CMC is still way south from the GFS much colder Its perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 yeah.. i don't think the trends are good. getting gfs/euro to lockstep at d3 used to be good enough to not lose it instantly. maybe the models are getting worse. What's sad is that the arctic air is not far to the north, and the wave is compact enough that it shouldn't amplify too much in the cold air -- compared to an inland-running Miller A. The SLP never gets below 1000 mb while crossing the mid Atlantic. Given the antecedent cold air...the arctic variety just to our north...I can certainly see the SLP track and 850 mb low track shift farther south. I mean, if we can't suppress a 1000+ SLP to our south under these antecedent conditions, when can we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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