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Feb 1/2 Obs


nj2va

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I don't want to hear any more south talk until the gfs or euro shows it. 

If goes south, you certainly are going to hear about it.

 

That being said, the trends this year have been for these events to end up south of where they are modeled.  Blending the 3 models at this time would be pretty much a gfs average, right?  I think most would be happy with that.

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IMO- this may be as far north as the euro goes. It's right at the medium lead extra amp stage. My guess is a modest south trend from here. Could be wrong though. 

 

Glad to hear that... although I'm in the bullseye, I wouldn't mind a slight south shift from what it shows verbatim. Plenty of heavy snow well into PA.

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If goes south, you certainly are going to hear about it.

 

That being said, the trends this year have been for these events to end up south of where they are modeled.  Blending the 3 models at this time would be pretty much a gfs average, right?  I think most would be happy with that.

Blend is good for everyone!

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There is that transient SE ridge from the departing HP over the region. I'd be cautious to assume this is the last jog north because it seems to nudge between the departing SE HP and the pressing cold front/1040 that presses in. I'd rather be in Harrisburg than Baltimore right now. 

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If goes south, you certainly are going to hear about it.

 

That being said, the trends this year have been for these events to end up south of where they are modeled.  Blending the 3 models at this time would be pretty much a gfs average, right?  I think most would be happy with that.

 

GFS and euro are very close considering 3-4 day leads. GEFS mean was perfect. 

 

If it's going to miss south it would have to trend that way in the next 12 to 24 hours. We have good agreement right now. 

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IMO- this may be as far north as the euro goes. It's right at the medium lead extra amp stage. My guess is a modest south trend from here. Could be wrong though. 

I don't think it will change much.  It's not like it's showing a 978 MB low like it does at times.  I think it fairs better with these weaker waves, but you might be right.

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GFS and euro are very close considering 3-4 day leads. GEFS mean was perfect. 

 

If it's going to miss south it would have to trend that way in the next 12 to 24 hours. We have good agreement right now. 

I'm pretty much in agreement with you.  If it was going to be a big south move, I think one of the two, GPS or Euro would have shown it.

 

I tried to tell Mitch, Eastcoast NPZ, and Clskinsfan that we'd be fine last night, but they made fun of me  B)

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Yeah, even just a bit of a southern jog here would put virtually everyone quite firmly into the game. CHO has done about as well as EZF this season, so it'd be nice to get an area-wide win.

 

If goes south, you certainly are going to hear about it.

 

That being said, the trends this year have been for these events to end up south of where they are modeled.  Blending the 3 models at this time would be pretty much a gfs average, right?  I think most would be happy with that.

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People worrying too much about the cutoff. Unless you're down near Fredericksburg, I wouldn't worry too much right now. Like Bob said, I can't imagine this will go too much further north. This seems like a max output run from the Euro.

And your reasoning is.........?

 

Two days ago, most guidance was at best a front end thump from a jumping low.  Then a few good solutions started showing up.  This is still 4 days out.

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People worrying too much about the cutoff. Unless you're down near Fredericksburg, I wouldn't worry too much right now. Like Bob said, I can't imagine this will go too much further north. This seems like a max output run from the Euro.

 

It is a bit premature to totally write off a further N track.  The features that will determine that need to get in position.  We could still see some wild azz solutions.  The memory of last weeks debacle is fresh in my mind

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It is a bit premature to totally write off a further N track. The features that will determine that need to get in position. We could still see some wild azz solutions. The memory of last weeks debacle is fresh in my mind

Maybe. -NAO should help with the bumpiness. Still some time but we might just enter zero in mode from here.
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The key, as others have said (going back to the other day), is that we don't have that lousy GL low that appeared before.  There's a nice, big high building in there and pushing down from the upper Plains to the East.  Give me a good overrunning event any day, just pour a ton of moisture into the cold air, we typically do well in those.

 

Clearly details to work out but the trends are good obviously.  I am a bit worried just how amped up that trough/low gets in terms of going too far north.  Right now it's fine.  Maybe it has "maxed out" in that regard, we'll see.  But this set-up is a lot better than what we had going into this Monday's event.  And, the models are in much better agreement compared to this Monday's system.

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No one is writing off north/south. So far it's nice to see the goalposts targeting this area as we get closer with good cross model agreement.

Imo at this point snow is likely for the region with it being 1-3" on the low end and 8-12" on the high end.

Edit: even if the low amps, I think it would turn into more of a swfe unless the high weakens or changes orientation.

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yes this is close but man we are still far away from flakes flying anywhere. temper those expectations as with many systems there will be last min changes I'm sure.

 

You and I are dangerously close to getting shutout on this run, so yeah I'm a little cautious. So much for a miss to the south...

 

Also there's no way Baltimore is getting a low of -10. The coldest ever recorded at BWI is -7 on multiple occasions.

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