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Feb 1/2 Obs


nj2va

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Probably me!  I'm cautiously optimistic until the euro come in.  Like everyone one else, I like the GFS track, etc.  No snow doesn't look like an option though I still could see a front end thump to a mix if the storm were to come north a bit on subsequent runs. Last night's UKMET was in last night's GGEm camp.  Can't post more, got an article to write. 

 

Last night euro ens mean track was very good but south of the gfs. Agree about snow seems certain. Whether it mixes or not won't be clear for another day or 2. 

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Wouldn't that be a kick in the groin. No, it didn't look like that was a great match.

I wish cpc did 48 and 72 hour full hemispheric analogs like they do for day7-10. Those cips use too narrow if a domain. It's too specific. Things that happen outside that domain impact the results plus your relying in an accurate forecast on that specific location.
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Probably me! I'm cautiously optimistic until the euro come in. Like everyone one else, I like the GFS track, etc. No snow doesn't look like an option though I still could see a front end thump to a mix if the storm were to come north a bit on subsequent runs. Last night's UKMET was in last night's GGEm camp. Can't post more, got an article to write.

And yours truly will be working the evening shift at the NCWCP, unless someone wants to swap shifts (which I doubt considering it's Super Bowl Sunday!)

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Definitely has to do with snowpack. GFS is almost certainly over doing it. It shows -3 near ezf and +12 less than 20 miles away. Lines up with the snow cutoff.

That always happens in modeling, for example I saw on meteocentre meteograms that 0z 1/28 GGEM had sfc temps around 0 next Friday Morning in Albuquerque, NM. GGEM/RGEM have a big tendency to show temps way too cold. We could easily hit single digits though. Like the look of GFS.
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Considering the ggem just dropped the west track and joined the gfs/euro I think we can relax and enjoy the details now.

you're assuming we want that. Given the setup I'm way more worried about a miss south then rain. Given my location might influence that. But I expected a south shift. Now just hope it doesn't keep going that way.
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I think in the list of fears that is at the top....but we can still get snow with a wimpy event...see euro last night

We only got like .3" on 1/30/10.. and not to go back to ratios because that's a short range conversation when we're not seeing random QPF hits IMO.. but we don't need .7" liquid to do well in a cold event. As you know of course. 

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