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Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

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Exactly! Everybody should have pinched this winter off long ago! You would think it would be hard to go from a low track up into PA, to a supressed solution, with no precip, in about 3 runs of GFS

We need a spaghetti plot of the ensembles in order to tell us if the atmosphere is in a volatile state.

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Exactly! Everybody should have pinched this winter off long ago! You would think it would be hard to go from a low track up into PA, to a supressed solution, with no precip, in about 3 runs of GFS

that's exactly why we don't cliff dive either way. The gfs has gone to a solution for the mountains for the February 2nd storm which is predominantly snow. Whether a lot or a little dosent matter to me at this point.
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Yep, back to the stronger system w/ an apps runner.

 

I wouldn't really call it an Apps Runner (wouldn't it have to cut up the Apps... but maybe I'm wrong?).  It slides from N AL to AVL to just offshore of NE NC.  With a track 100 miles further south, we'd be in business, but yeah...  IF IF IF.

 

It's kind of an odd track, really.

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man, great trends continue for the gfs.  past 5 runs or so have all trended south and colder.  and this run gives much more precip.  will be interesting to watch the runs thru the weekend to see if we can get the low to keep trending south.  

 

EDIT: and some backend snow for northern nc at 114 as the low pulls ots.

 

00z run last night:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

00z run tonight:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

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Tonight and tommorow euro run will be huge for this storm. Will have a good idea of what type of game we are still playing here in regards to Sunday storm. The margin of trend we need for triad NC is very much doable. 50 to 100 miles. Course it could swing 50 to 100 miles unfavorably. IMO it's all about how the northern stream shakes out. Moisture will be there. Still debatable about how much and if it all comes out at one time or bleeds breaks off energy in the sw flow. But the euro next 2 runs are in its wheelhouse, so we should see the boundries being drawn and be able to hone in from there.

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Well, this shouldn't come as a surprise to most...

 

Now that the GFS has crossed through its Day 5-6 shadow, the storm is start to re-invigorate itself on the model in a fashion similar to what it was showing back on Sunday and Monday.

 

That plus now our big monster in the Atlantic is gone, we can see how that storm affected the northern stream flow...

 

 

Tomorrow will also be a key day as we start to get inside the range of the NAM...

 

I think this is far from a done deal for the North Carolina Mountains...

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The Sunday storm is still a legit threat especially for the mountains and northern tier of NC. But we definitely need help with this storm. Its nice to see a nice strong 1050 mb high building in across the plains. For this to be a legit threat this high pressure needs to begin ridging down east of the Appalachians ahead of the storm. This would provide cooling at the surface and slow warming in the mid levels while supporting a more eastward trek of the storm (as opposed to NE).

 

I'm most interested in the Gulf Low threat around 7-8 days out. Its obviously a ways out but this is climatologically favorable location for the development of lows that stand the best chance of providing big winter weather in the SE. It even comes with an area of supporting, non-transient high pressure (something that has alluded these parts when it counts so far this winter)

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Looks like the Euro may be about to deliver the goods for the D4 event.  Nice hit for the northern half of TN so far and it might be lining up to give N NC some snow, too.

 

EDIT: Looks like it screws us with mid-30s surface temps, though.  850s are okay for the I-40 corridor, it appears.  We are on the northern edge of the precip shield, though.

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