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Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

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You can see @180 it's close but no cigar. If that energy in the south were slower it would probably be a big hit. 

yeah the storm either needs to slow down, or the cold needs to speed up...the low looks way too fast to me but that may just be wishful thinking...timing is crucial, we're thinning a needle but it could be huge. @186, 995 off the coast of NC with the 540 line touching NC/VA line. A small change could make it fantasy in one run. -40 850's below the hudson bay and we can't get the 0c 850 line into NC???

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I agree, the weak -AO got a little stronger, the weak -NAO got a little stronger, the PAC ridge/-EPO got a little better.  All that added up to the PV shifting south a little which made all the difference in the world, but we need a little more southern stream interaction to have more precip but not to much.

 

Verbatim, central NC get's precip holed and all the snow is confined to central VA.

After the look of the previous model runs, that's beautiful...We just need small changes to actually provide at least a small event.

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What's those red colors doing over the pole, strange.

I wonder what would happen if the PV would drop just a little bit more right after this onto the backside of the southern stream wave...

 

Way back in the day I believe this was called a negative AO phase I believe?  I've also heard myths of this supposed negative NAO phase as well.  Someone shoot me a PM if there is every a real threat within 5 days.

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While we are still having to rely on the fantasy range for winter weather, I have been paying more and more attention at the broad picture. A total of 3 separate rain events through 192 hours with the 4th being the winter threat.

This train of low pressure systems lays down a path of 2-4 inches QPF through day 7 with about. 90 percent of the Southeast getting at least 1 inch of rain.

If nothing else the ground moisture content is increasing with each passing week. That will be more of interest to us once we get to Spring and convective weather season

 

Increasing indeed - honestly we are already really soggy around here.  Our rain total for December was 9.7 inches, and so far in January we have gotten 8.1 inches.  This is about double the normal rainfall totals for the last 60 days (December's average is just below 4", and January average is 5").  We all joke about cold rain, but we've had a lot of it around here.

 

There are parts of my property that are semi-permanent mud bogs right now.  For both December and thus far in January we've had rain on fully 50% of the days.  And this aspect of the prevailing pattern doesn't look to change soon, with so many more moisture events stacked up in the short to medium term.  (I'm not ungrateful - the drought a few years ago sucked.)

 

If we had any significant length of time with true cold and little sun, I'd be able to ice skate on all the mud slicks in my back yard.

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Increasing indeed - honestly we are already really soggy around here.  Our rain total for December was 9.7 inches, and so far in January we have gotten 8.1 inches.  This is about double the normal rainfall totals for the last 60 days (December's average is just below 4", and January average is 5").  We all joke about cold rain, but we've had a lot of it around here.

 

There are parts of my property that are semi-permanent mud bogs right now.  For both December and thus far in January we've had rain on fully 50% of the days.  And this aspect of the prevailing pattern doesn't look to change soon, with so many more moisture events stacked up in the short to medium term.  (I'm not ungrateful - the drought a few years ago sucked.)

 

If we had any significant length of time with true cold and little sun, I'd be able to ice skate on all the mud slicks in my back yard.

 That's quite impressive. Atlanta had a little over 5" for December and a little over 4" for January. So you've had over 8" more than Atlanta and you're not far away.

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 That's quite impressive. Atlanta had a little over 5" for December and a little over 4" for January. So you've had over 8" more than Atlanta and you're not far away.

 

It's a little astonishing to me that the airport totals are so low, but I guess it should not be, as they generally have higher temps and less precip than us, anecdotally.  We got 4" just from that big rainstorm that happened January 1-4, up here.  And we've had 10 more rainy days since then.  All those .25 and .5 days add up.

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It's a little astonishing to me that the airport totals are so low, but I guess it should not be, as they generally have higher temps and less precip than us, anecdotally.  We got 4" just from that big rainstorm that happened January 1-4, up here.  And we've had 10 more rainy days since then.  All those .25 and .5 days add up.[/quote

Up here Dec. total 3.03 and so far for Jan. 3.59.

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RAH not jumping on any potential at this point:

 

SUN THROUGH MON: THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FLATTER WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH (REFERENCED ABOVE) AS IT AMPLIFIES INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
REFLECTION IN RECENT NWP RUNS IS CONSEQUENTLY MUCH WEAKER AND MORE
SUPPRESSED THAN EARLIER FORECASTS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE
GUIDANCE TRENDS BACK TOWARD A STRONGER SYSTEM LIFTING UP WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
IN EITHER SCENARIO. BEFOREHAND...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A CLOUDY DAY FOR
CENTRAL NC...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM TOP-DOWN SATURATION
OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT...AND WITH HIGHS WELL
BELOW FULL SUN VALUES - MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. THE FLATTER/WEAKER SFC SOLUTIONS DO HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES FOR MON...HOWEVER...SUCH THAT
THE BULK OF THE DAY WOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE LATEST
MODEL TRENDS...WITH CAA-DRIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED: BENEATH HEIGHT RISES ALOFT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH...POST-FRONTAL...CONTINENTAL
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MON NIGHT-TUE...THEN DRIFT
OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT-WED. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW
NEAR THE BAJA IS FORECAST TO EJECT AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
US...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST...THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN CENTRAL NC...INTO THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
RANGE...BY EARLY WED. PROJECTED PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES WOULD
SUPPORT JUST A CHILLY RAIN.


Man we haven't had a chilly rain in a long time.............................................................

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RAH not jumping on any potential at this point:

 

SUN THROUGH MON: THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FLATTER WITH THE NORTHERN

STREAM S/W TROUGH (REFERENCED ABOVE) AS IT AMPLIFIES INTO THE MIDDLE

ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW

REFLECTION IN RECENT NWP RUNS IS CONSEQUENTLY MUCH WEAKER AND MORE

SUPPRESSED THAN EARLIER FORECASTS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE

GUIDANCE TRENDS BACK TOWARD A STRONGER SYSTEM LIFTING UP WEST OF THE

APPALACHIANS...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT

IN EITHER SCENARIO. BEFOREHAND...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A CLOUDY DAY FOR

CENTRAL NC...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM TOP-DOWN SATURATION

OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT...AND WITH HIGHS WELL

BELOW FULL SUN VALUES - MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50

DEGREES. THE FLATTER/WEAKER SFC SOLUTIONS DO HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON

PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES FOR MON...HOWEVER...SUCH THAT

THE BULK OF THE DAY WOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE LATEST

MODEL TRENDS...WITH CAA-DRIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO

AROUND 50 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED: BENEATH HEIGHT RISES ALOFT BEHIND THE

DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH...POST-FRONTAL...CONTINENTAL

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MON NIGHT-TUE...THEN DRIFT

OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT-WED. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW

NEAR THE BAJA IS FORECAST TO EJECT AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

US...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GOM TO THE

SOUTHEAST US COAST...THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING

PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN CENTRAL NC...INTO THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE

RANGE...BY EARLY WED. PROJECTED PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES WOULD

SUPPORT JUST A CHILLY RAIN.

Man we haven't had a chilly rain in a long time.............................................................

Even with a temp of 27 degrees in Raleigh on Wednesday morning ?

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GSP is leaving the door open with their thoughts on Sunday-Monday.

 

THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
.

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There isn't much eps support for the wed/ Thursday system the OP shows

 

EPS mean has SLP just off the SE coast, precip max is in the SE during days 7-8, roughly .7-.8" precip for central NC/SC/GA.  I am not saying it's going to snow but the EPS does show a signal for a storm, big signal.  Like everything else this winter it will probably falter as we get closer.

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18z northern energy is a lot weaker this run is going to be colder it appears out to 87. 

Ya, what a shift today from the 12z model runs....Is it right?  Heck, who knows...but I Will say this....ALL season long the northern stream has been pushy/dominant.  It really doesn't surprise me to see it pushing around that energy and just pushing a weaker system through.  Also, nice colder push.

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