Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

Recommended Posts

Maybe we can get miller B'd since the major arctic air mass will be in place, but wait, we lost the cold! We will take our cold rain and like it! I expect a couple of more nice runs in the next day or two, with a good snow for many, only to have tonight's 18z to be correct, kind of like the SB storm

If it makes you feel any better next model runs we will likely be out of the game too...the progression on GFS went from 6z suppressed to 18z cutter...that is a bad sign for the final outcome in my opinion...0z should be direct route to Detroit...the seasonal pattern won't be denied

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 3.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I thought the 18z and 6z was not as good as the 0z and 12z. Did that change with the last upgrade? 

Weather balloons are launched at 0z and 12z, therefore those runs has the most new data. 18z and 6z has some weather balloon data as well as aircraft and surface weather station data. I look at 18z and 6z as a refresher of the past runs with some new data. 

 

Edit: The initialized time is not the issue here as models have been consistently consolidating the lows path as a cutter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought the 18z and 6z was not as good as the 0z and 12z. Did that change with the last upgrade?

That is a myth from what I understand. Each model run ingests new data. An 18z run should be just as accurate as any other run but a newer run is presumably better than the previous. This scenario and the varied solutions are probably the result of the models not knowing what will happen with the two clippers. Without a strong high you need confluence. More confluence means colder and further south. The level of confluence will be determined by the clipper on Sautrday. At least that is my understanding.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought the 18z and 6z was not as good as the 0z and 12z. Did that change with the last upgrade?

It gets brought up all the time, but there is no better or worse. Supposedly , the 12z and 0z , get new data, but I think the downward spiral of today's GFS started at 12z, and the new upgrade seems to suck even worse than the old GFS
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just when it looks like a winter storm is possible, models show the storm moving west of the Apps and bringing a cold rain to the southeast. While there is some hope, I do not like the chances with this system. It is unfortunate because we are having to very cold shots of air, with a system in between the shots of air.

 

The 0z models will hopefully shed some light on this system. Regardless, we will either be confused or more confident by tomorrow morning. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's my wintry forecast for next Tuesday. lol  I've seen this same forecast 50 times this winter only to get flurries one Saturday morning!

 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.

 

 

Accuweather showing a high of 54 here Tuesday. lol  #whatawinter

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just when it looks like a winter storm is possible, models show the storm moving west of the Apps and bringing a cold rain to the southeast. While there is some hope, I do not like the chances with this system. It is unfortunate because we are having to very cold shots of air, with a system in between the shots of air.

The 0z models will hopefully shed some light on this system. Regardless, we will either be confused or more confident by tomorrow morning.

What model shows west of the apps besides 18z goofus?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even if the low pressure cuts to our West, we can still get a front end thump from over running precip on Thursday morning. Heck, the 12z Euro takes the surface low through kentucky, but keeps my backyard below 27 degree's for the duration of the event.

 

I think you meant Tues morning, but yeah, the sfc low track isn't the main issue here...the amount and placement of the cold air out front is.  I mean, we aren't getting a Galveston to Tallahassee storm track with this one.  It looks like there were only 2 of 12 wintry GFS ensemble members this run...as opposed to 6 of 12 from the 12z run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The forum should plan a trip to Boston to cure our snow-drought angst.  :snowing:

 

I just moved up there in October from Midtown Atlanta.  It's amazing.  I picked a hell of a year to finally do it. You don't even really mind the shoveling when it's to shovel historic amounts of snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...