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February pattern discussion


Typhoon Tip

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There's going to be discord and arguments ... and resentments .. leveled as the general tenner going forward.  There are going to be knee jerk reactionary rebuttals before reading the whole thing.  There's going to be those that try and read in and ferret out intent/motives when it is really their problem, not that of the poster.  Such is life on a public forum, when the winds of change threaten to bring in farts of discontent. 

 

Particularly because despite the Mets trying to thump down/suppress the notion of winter ending... heh, both CDC and CPC teleconnectos end winter abruptly in the first week of March.  Sorry, that is just black and white what the American -derived spread has it as of late. 

 

It may be that you folks are discussing the nearer term, as in the last 10 days of Feb?  Sure, there's room to hold onto winter.  After that, PNA plummets;  NAO stays positive;  WPO and EPO (so the NP in general) flips signs positive 10 days from now, and the AO is in orbit... There's nothing left there in the conservation of mass field argument to prevent a paradigm shift.  

 

That said, I have no idea what the Euro -based/derived tele's are indicating, so it is what it is ... Perhaps if that source oppose, then there is a argument - sure.  

 

These tele's are also not fixed; they just don't change as fast as the dailies, or the individual model trends.  But the CPC/CDC has been flagging/hinting in this paradigm shift/breakdown of current for more than a couple of nightly derivatives at this point. 

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There's going to be discord and arguments ... and resentments .. leveled as the general tenner going forward. There are going to be knee jerk reactionary rebuttals before reading the whole thing. There's going to be those that try and read in and ferret out intent/motives when it is really their problem, not that of the poster. Such is life on a public forum, when the winds of change threaten to bring in farts of discontent.

Particularly because despite the Mets trying to thump down/suppress the notion of winter ending... heh, both CDC and CPC teleconnectos end winter abruptly in the first week of March. Sorry, that is just black and white what the American -derived spread has it as of late.

It may be that you folks are discussing the nearer term, as in the last 10 days of Feb? Sure, there's room to hold onto winter. After that, PNA plummets; NAO stays positive; WPO and EPO (so the NP in general) flips signs positive 10 days from now, and the AO is in orbit... There's nothing left there in the conservation of mass field argument to prevent a paradigm shift.

That said, I have no idea what the Euro -based/derived tele's are indicating, so it is what it is ... Perhaps if that source oppose, then there is a argument - sure.

These tele's are also not fixed; they just don't change as fast as the dailies, or the individual model trends. But the CPC/CDC has been flagging/hinting in this paradigm shift/breakdown of current for more than a couple of nightly derivatives at this point.

Its usually the same posts that do the "ill turn this non bullish" winter pattern post into "are u over-reacting and ending winter , i dont know why" response. Which post really is over-reacting and reaching. *Seems a clever way to not discuss things turning sour for a bit.

Teleconnectors go in toilet , that is gaining traction. Growing liklihood for a big thaw end of month/early March SNE (AN) .Who cares, bound to happen .

Sure we maybe ,having our "chances" . Thou that line can be stated for almost any "future" pattern at this point (and is a given) , and can be a way of saying nothing in particular.

I hope we cash in next ten days. Then we thaw, we were bound to, could be a big thaw, again we will survive and see where we go after that, all options on table.

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Its usually the same posts that do the "ill turn this non bullish" winter pattern post into "are u over-reacting and ending winter , i dont know why" response. Which post really is over-reacting and reaching. *Seems a clever way to not discuss things turning sour for a bit.

Teleconnectors go in toilet , that is gaining traction. Growing liklihood for a big thaw end of month/early March SNE (AN) .Who cares, bound to happen .

Sure we maybe ,having our "chances" . Thou that line can be stated for almost any "future" pattern at this point (and is a given) , and can be a way of saying nothing in particular.

I hope we cash in next ten days. Then we thaw, we were bound to, could be a big thaw, again we will survive and see where we go after that, all options on table.

there are only 9 days left in the month, guarantee no big thaw by the end of this month

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Yeah, should things break toward the warmer paradigm suggested by the American cluster -derived tele's ...again, first week of March. That doesn't have to mean March 1, per se.

 

Also, yesterday I suggested that so long as the EPO stayed negative, which it was progged to do so at that time (albeit alleviated some), then winter would be protracted.  

 

It's just that as of last night's run, both the WPO and EPO are flipping signs, while the PNA crashes.  That doesn't leave much conservation of mass argument for continuing cold.  However, since the onset of positive derivatives is so new, the next run could also collapse again... 

 

We are battling the calendar, though.  That actually (for me) begins around Feb 11 over every year ... (and this is for Kevin), at which time a parked car on a sunny day heats.  Prior to that date, ..every year I notice the same thing.  Certainly it's a later date in Caribou Maine, and an Earlier one in DCA... All that silliness is intended to convey is that we're gaining insolation per diem, so eventually, it has to get harder.  

 

I'm actually wondering about hydro season. 

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Quincy these are from ewall right? Where do you get the ECMWF ENS? I can only find the link to the GFS ENS under MREF.

It's just the operational run with the mean 500mb heights for days 8-10. Go to the top left and click on "8-10NEW".

Have to use WeatherBELL or StormVista for ECMWF ENS.

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I doubt we'll beat 1934. A top 5 February looks likely though.

Climo is like 20/40 now so we'll start putting a dent in 16.2 degrees.

A top 3 appears very likely and #2 is within reach. Using 20/10 today, MEX days 2-8 and climo (41/21) for Feb. 27-28, they'd go 17.9F.
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Speaking with regard to pure stats, Hasn't Don S posted Stats that without a PNA ridge or Blocking, that Boston has been very unlikely to see a 6" + snowfall in a single storm.

I know people act like Ridge Retro isn't a "pattern change" especially by arguing the non argued point, "it isn't the end of winter" (no kidding) and that this retro isn't the ugliest scenario by any means, but historically Boston needs a PNA ridge or a -NAO to have a real shot at 6" plus events.(if I recall reading Don S's fantastic statistical posts i think somewhere in the neighborhood of only 10% of Boston Snow events over 6" have occured in a non PNA+ or -NAO environment) now I understand how stats can be hyperfocused on and that a warning event can happen but It just seems unlikely. Is that not a fair assessment until the Ridge undergoes a more favorable alignment for East coast cyclogenesis. Also lets not exaggerate this last point, and say ya coastals won't be forming every 4 days, I mean given back drop of Don S's PNA/NAO Boston stats, that it's unlikely for any coastal to give us 6"+ until the ridge has a more favorable alignment. (I think 6"+ will be more realistic in deep interior, finally )

The reason I mention this is because I would tend to be a bit more skeptical on any medium to long range threats that show "Warning snowfall events in BOS" given the lack of either PNA ridge or -NAO blocking.

Can we try not to knee jerk response this post, and just discuss it on its merits or lack there of for the sake of some trying to identify ways to quantify likelihood of significant snow storms under certain set ups. (I'm not trying to steal anyone's "snow joy". I love snow and I really shouldn't have to put these qualifiers ha

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Talk about gouging your eyes out. I bet flowers are up out there.

@ericfisher: While Boston hasn't seen temps hit 40F since all this snow began January 23rd, Salt Lake City, UT hasn't had a high *below* 40F.

SLC is pretty far south compared to New England. But they could get 2 feet in mid may also.

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SLC is pretty far south compared to New England. But they could get 2 feet in mid may also.

A 2' snowstorm for SLC would be very rare (at least at the airport).  The "benches" at the base of the mountains get more snow.  I believe even 12" is uncommon, especially in May.  It's not like Denver.  The surrounding mountains can snow almost any month, but the valley primarily gets it Dec - early March... and usually in nickel-dime increments.

 

The warm temperatures out there are more a function of the persistent high pressure ridge than the latitude.

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I've been looking at the CFS runs on Tropical Tidbits and it looks like a gradual return to normal by mid March, on the 2m anomaly maps. Seems reasonable to me. This ridiculous cold has to end at some point. Models are sniffing out one last big storm on 2/28-3/1 before we start to return to normal? We shall see...

I see advisory more likely than warning in this pattern unless your money pit mike or cne/nne , taint as well.

But we sure can get bitter cold in between systems

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I don't where to put this, but here.

 

 

The models are retrograding the ridge like we spoke about eventually to near the dateline give or take.  However, it is still in a position to give cross polar flow as the PNA drops a bit. Also, some subtle signs that ridging may try to push west or at least knock the PV a bit SW towards NE Canada which helps confluence to our north. 

 

Bottom line is that although chances for some messy storms may increase, it seems like the pattern is rather active with multiple threats. It also could be great times for NNE too. March could be fun if we can get tropical convection to migrate back east a bit to the WPAC.

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I don't where to put this, but here.

 

 

The models are retrograding the ridge like we spoke about eventually to near the dateline give or take.  However, it is still in a position to give cross polar flow as the PNA drops a bit. Also, some subtle signs that ridging may try to push west or at least knock the PV a bit SW towards NE Canada which helps confluence to our north. 

 

Bottom line is that although chances for some messy storms may increase, it seems like the pattern is rather active with multiple threats. It also could be great times for NNE too. March could be fun if we can get tropical convection to migrate back east a bit to the WPAC.

Scott, Question. Sorry if it was obvious but , Are you referring to N Atlantic Ridging pushing West to knock the Polar Vortex a bit SW or that Ridging would be pushing West from Dateline to do this, or Just the initial ridge shift to dateline could dislodge the Polar Vort SW .

 

Sounds like this is a decent pattern for sump pump sales and NNE snowfall, as well as active enough to get Bos to break snowfall record eventually.

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