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February 1st-2nd Winter Event


ChescoWx

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Ray I always defer to professionals like you...but the bar is not real high to make this the biggest winter event of the season...you think it will not as this point?

quote name="famartin" post="3324498" timestamp="1422677180"]Like it or not, NONE of us knows for sure what is going to happen.

 

That includes you, Paul ;)

 

I could see it going either way.  Very small nudge either way would do it.

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orecast. Main note I think they will be a very very sharp cutoff, I literally spend a hour or two working on the fine nature of this. Thus you see the AFD getting out absurdly late, that and the computer program crashing every few seconds  facepalm.jpg  crazy.gif . 

 

StormTotalSnowRange.png

StormTotalIceWebFcst.png

 

 

 

 

Also of note the BUFKIT sounding on the GFS for PHL showed a 3C temperature at 900 mb by 6z.

 

 

 

We'll see what the 12z runs bring, as I stated in my AFD the GFS appears to be a reasonable middle of the road approach between the cold EC and the warm NAM. 

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I feel really bad for the NYC crew....this is quickly becoming Boston's storm. 72 hours out DCA, 48+ hours out Phlliy, 36 hours out NYC, I just have a hunch next destination is Boston. We've played this game before.

 

NYC is only going to see 4 inches or so out of this I think, I don't think its going to shift north much and in reality last night's runs did not come that far north on track. what is occurring more so is the mid-level WAA is getting picked up by the models as we get closer.  I think everyone NYC south is sleet by 10-11z.   And therein lies the the problem in NYC, this is not a true SWFE so I don't see a changeover to rain, even far northern parts of this sub forum its likely going to be an all frozen event with a possible 2-3 hour period of ripping sleet and possibly FZRA though I think more likely sleet right now. 

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even far northern parts of this sub forum its likely going to be an all frozen event with a possible 2-3 hour period of ripping sleet and possibly FZRA though I think more likely sleet right now. 

 

That's the part that's going to cause me to bang my head against the wall. Just when we'd get into the best snowfall rates, it'll flip over to sleet. That's probably the most frustrating part of this storm and this setup.

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That's the part that's going to cause me to bang my head against the wall. Just when we'd get into the best snowfall rates, it'll flip over to sleet. That's probably the most frustrating part of this storm and this setup.

 

Are you driving Monday (truck)? Perfect day to take off if possible? (Probably not how it works w/your line of work) Watch the Superbowl...some beers and sleep in Monday and let this mess go by.

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6z Wxsim with GFS/NAM blend for NW Chesco - highest temp during storm is 31.4 - total precip 1.87" all frozen

 

630pm light snow temp 16.6

10pm light snow temp 18.5

1am Heavy Snow temp 19.6 (2.5" snow)

4am Heavy Snow/IP mix temp 23.6 (6.0" snow/ip)

430am IP/ZR Mix temp 25.5

630 am IP/ZR (0.27" w.e. fall as IP/ZR )

7:00am -1230pm (0.86" falls as ZR)

1230pm-7pm - transition back to light snow maybe 1" of snow on top

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