PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 more positive news for Monday's system speculation on slower movement holds up http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd ...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES... THERE CONTINUE TO BE VARIOUS SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CNTRL-ERN STATES FROM THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SUPPORTING ENERGY AMPLIFYING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND ORIGINATES FROM A COMBINATION OF FLAT FLOW HEADING INTO BC AND SHEARED ENERGY OVER ALASKA IN THE SHORT RANGE. THESE IMPULSES DO NOT REACH WRN CANADA UNTIL LATE FRI SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST THEN TO GET A REASONABLE ANALYSIS OF THIS ENERGY. BEYOND THIS ISSUE IS THE QUESTION OF NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLITUDE OVER THE CONUS AND HOW MUCH INTERACTION THERE IS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS/NRN MEXICO. GREATER NRN STREAM AMPLITUDE/MORE INTERACTION AS PER 00Z GFS/CMC RUNS LEAD TO A SLOWER/NWWD SFC SYSTEM IN CONTRAST TO THE FLAT NRN STREAM SHRTWV/WEAK AND FAST SFC WAVE OF THE 00Z UKMET. THE UKMET/CMC HAVE ESSENTIALLY SWITCHED PLACES RELATIVE TO THE SOLN ENVELOPE COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. MEANWHILE THE FULL ARRAY OF ENSEMBLE SFC LOWS BY LATE SUN ONWARD IS QUITE BROAD WITH LITTLE CLUSTERING ASIDE FROM SUGGESTING THE BEST PROBABILITY WOULD BE FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE JUST OFF THE NERN COAST BY 00Z TUE. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE... TAKEN AS A WHOLE THE PAST 24 HRS OR SO OF GUIDANCE HAS STABILIZED ON A SLOWER/STRONGER EVOLUTION THAN SEEN IN EARLIER CONSENSUS. FOR THIS UPDATE ULTIMATELY PREFER TO EMPHASIZE A BLEND OF THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEAN WITH LESS WEIGHTING ON THE FLATTER 00Z ECMWF MEAN. THIS SOLN YIELDS A GOOD INTERMEDIATE SFC TRACK WHICH COMPARES WELL WITH LAGGED AVG FCSTS INCORPORATING RECENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS... FROM THE OH VLY 00Z MON TO THE DELMARVA/SERN PA 12Z MON TO JUST OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND COAST 00Z TUE. THE FAVORED BLEND REPRESENTS CONSENSUS WELL OVER THE WRN STATES WHERE RIDGING ALOFT WILL FLATTEN AS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT COMES INLAND. Nice work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's idiotic to be putting any numbers out right now. This storm could be 1" of rain to 10" of snow to absolutely nothing. Make the public aware that there is a possibility of a storm so they can have a contingency plan in place and make more in depth forecasts as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Keeping an eye on the AO/NAO as a more negative trend will make this system a lot more promising. If a snowy solution verifies it will start becoming problematic especially the further east you go. I think the best case scenario would be 10-12" which would really ramp up the snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2015012812/navgem_mslp_uv850_us_20.png Your Navgem moisture pool not to much of a stretch to swing it back west ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yea wxunderground.com has 5-8 Sunday and 1-3 Monday for me... seems a little silly at this point to be throwing out numbers and it's only Wednesday. Glutton for punishment, or very confident? Can't see how anyone could be confident... I won't be confident within 24 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This is all dependent on how much of the baja low comes out..how strong the Northern stream is and whether or not they phase.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Weather forcasters are surprisingly bullish for this event already.. Even weatherbug app stated moderate accumulation for sunday night then again Monday.. Very strange especially after such a big bust Word it out that a huge snow storm is coming. I just got out of a meeting and everyone was talking about it. Can' t make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Word it out that a huge snow storm is coming. I just got out of a meeting and everyone was talking about it. Can' t make this stuff up. always seems to happen after a big event....hype machine gets going "Guess what? there's ANOTHER Storm on the horizon" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 always seems to happen after a big event....hype machine gets going "Guess what? there's ANOTHER Storm on the horizon"It also helps the public to forget the debacle that just passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 always seems to happen after a big event....hype machine gets going "Guess what? there's ANOTHER Storm on the horizon" I have been hearing "another for Monday" all day as well. Everyone is hitting the pipe hard. Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 No consistency whatsoever on the 12z EPS members. Everything from a track to Bermuda to a MECS to a waterfall of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This is all dependent on how much of the baja low comes out..how strong the Northern stream is and whether or not they phase.. Correct , cleaner ejection the N branch will catch it , The Canadian sees it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This has all the makings of another impossibly difficult forecast. I hope mets are extremely conservative in talking about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 No consistency whatsoever on the 12z EPS members. Everything from a track to Bermuda to a MECS to a waterfall of rain.Means the model still has no idea what's going on. Honestly, I would be waiting till the clipper is resolved to see what's going to happen with this potential. Right now, I would go by what the teleconnections imply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Word it out that a huge snow storm is coming. I just got out of a meeting and everyone was talking about it. Can' t make this stuff up. People were already talking about it before this past bust. It's ridiculous honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 No way to make a forecast from this distance . Just laying out the models and wait to see if a clearer picture develops as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif 50/50 low -- influence---- well almost 1008mb on the water Monday 7:00 am **** Delmarva**** stationary front could shore up a nice cold funnel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I keep getting notifications on tapatalk about new posts here but nothing shows up. Anyone else have that issue? Or are they just being deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yesterdays storm was really only modeled 3-4 days out. So would knows as this is 5 plus days out. I think we'll have a good idea next 24-48 hrs...if all models head south, then that energy is likely to be held back IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I keep getting notifications on tapatalk about new posts here but nothing shows up. Anyone else have that issue? Or are they just being deleted. The new version of TapaTalk is absolutely atrocious. Luckily I had an iTunes backup of the version before that to install in its place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Quick question if I may, what is the floor, and maximum potential for this storm in NYC? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Word it out that a huge snow storm is coming. I just got out of a meeting and everyone was talking about it. Can' t make this stuff up. This has been caused by Upton - they had a forecast out this morning with moderate accumulations likely and now they are backing off that because of one cycle of model runs the 12Z that doesn't show that - 4 -5 days out. Whoever supervises that office should investigate what is going on there especially after that freezing rain advisory was prematurely cancelled and now this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This has been caused by Upton - they had a forecast out this morning with moderate accumulations likely and now they are backing off that because of one cycle of model runs the 12Z that doesn't show that - 4 -5 days out. Whoever supervises that office should investigate what is going on there especially after that freezing rain advisory was prematurely cancelled and now this.... I agree, uptons lost it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I agree, uptons lost itYes, whatever is going on there needs to be stopped. Whoever is running the show needs to be more conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Quick question if I may, what is the floor, and maximum potential for this storm in NYC? Thanks.That's honestly an impossible question to answer at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This has been caused by Upton - they had a forecast out this morning with moderate accumulations likely and now they are backing off that because of one cycle of model runs the 12Z that doesn't show that - 4 -5 days out. Whoever supervises that office should investigate what is going on there especially after that freezing rain advisory was prematurely cancelled and now this.... To be fair, "moderate" is not the same thing as "huge." Those who argued that a "huge" snowstorm is coming exaggerated beyond what NWS said. I have no issue with the NWS looking into what went wrong with their forecasts and that's something that should routinely be done whenever a high-impact forecast fails. However, the issue of some people's misreading the NWS's ideas and reaching unsupported and unsupportable conclusions isn't part of that issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Remember when Upton issued WSW for the area for the November storm. They seem way more bullish this winter than past winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Remember when Upton issued WSW for the area for the November storm. They seem way more bullish this winter than past winters.They were reprimanded pretty heavily for the February 2013 debacle. That may be a contributing factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Also Upton has a habit of issuing forecasts like they did 2 days ago for Monday with plain rain mentioned but temps are below freezing or low 30's and the ground has been frozen solid with ice and snow for days - there is such a thing as freezing rain ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This has been caused by Upton - they had a forecast out this morning with moderate accumulations likely and now they are backing off that because of one cycle of model runs the 12Z that doesn't show that - 4 -5 days out. Whoever supervises that office should investigate what is going on there especially after that freezing rain advisory was prematurely cancelled and now this.... Upton just issued their afternoon Zones Forecast - they are still mentioning "moderate snow accumulation possible" http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html here is the AFD - try to fiqure this out - would like to know what their definition of moderate accumulation is for 2 cycles total 2 moderates IMO = heavy total. http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fxus61.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.