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Post-Super Bowl Storm chance discussion


rossi

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Honestly the Euro solution is much more believable. I know nobody wants to hear that now, but the pattern looks too progressive for the GFS solution, plus there seems to be a good amount of blocking to the north. Let's not forget that the Euro was the first to sniff to the SNE HECS, and was actually more accurate further from the event.

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Headed to bed (for real this time lol), but Euro is 10-15" of snow for NYC (wx bell snow maps though).....let's not get too into it though now...looks like the low tracks close to the coast so I'm sure there'd be mixing on this run. Give it a few days and see where we're at. I know I won't feel comfortable until it's on our doorsteps. Goodnight all

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Headed to bed (for real this time lol), but Euro is 10-15" of snow for NYC (wx bell snow maps though).....let's not get too into it though now...looks like the low tracks close to the coast so I'm sure there'd be mixing on this run. Give it a few days and see where we're at. I know I won't feel comfortable until it's on our doorsteps. Goodnight all

Damn you euro sucking us back in. The differences at h5 are not all that large between the GFS and Euro
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Do you really want more Euro snow maps lol. The only thing that matters is that its a better run for the area. Pointless to odle over day 5 snow amounts.

my intentions were certainly not to "odle" over them...I've been doing this long enough I don't need to be told not to take a weenie map serious 5 days from event lol ...I like to save them to my phone for after an event to compare runs and see what verified

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my intentions were certainly not to "odle" over them...I've been doing this long enough I don't need to be told not to take a weenie map serious 5 days from event lol ...I like to save them to my phone for after an event to compare runs and see what verified

 

Fair I guess. I just think after this past storm these boards would be better off with fewer clown maps.

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Fair I guess. I just think after this past storm these boards would be better off with fewer clown maps.

I would Agree but whether you show the map or give the qpf output you can't hide how much precip the model is putting out... Weenies are gonna run with it... I find them amusing, and interesting to look at that's all...have a good night all!

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Certainly does. Euro shows a potent Miller A on it's tail just 3 days later as well.

Yeah I was just telling my room mate about that follow up one.. (as well as the first one that we are discussing) because she suffers from Fibro and PAD really bad..I put the disclaimer though IF the model is correct because after yesterdays debacle I am a little more then skeptical of solutions until 48 and under 

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Yeah I was just telling my room mate about that follow up one.. (as well as the first one that we are discussing) because she suffers from Fibro and PAD really bad..I put the disclaimer though IF the model is correct because after yesterdays debacle I am a little more then skeptical of solutions until 48 and under 

 

Very true, I'd really want 100% model consensus before feeling confident in any storm after this. I would not start getting excited until the GFS/CMC catch on.

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With pattern progressive enough still and Canadian high getting into perfect position Sunday night, this looks like a 8-12 inch snow for NYC and LI.  Almost a lock at this point... This looks like a very high confidence event as it gets closer.  Any model showing a cutter or west of NYC is wrong with Sunday 2/1/2015 pattern that 100% does not support a cutter at all.  Mets please add your thoughts, thanks.The clipper on Friday morning is our 50/50 low.  We are absolutely golden for a winter storm warning event on Monday. We are golden for this..... This will go just SE of ACY and track to near Block Island.  I would bet this.  NYC does better in this and could see a foot. I am not wishcasting, just looking at pattern alone.

M

easy does it son....

but your enthusiasm is Understood 

 

plenty of cold to grab onto from the north

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012806/gfs_T2m_us_22.png

 

Atlantic High Pressure Location

 on this gfs run

gives some credence for a coastal ATM   -imo-

 

the 1024mb  HP area in western atlantic  

wiggle room

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_atlantic_126_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

48hr window for thread starters---is not to much to ask??? 

 

euro -ens

feb 3 spot check

backs up the coastal idea

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015012800/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_eus_7.png

 

if images lag---click refresh inside linked pages

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6z GFS has Sunday night storm going from Harrisburgh to Providence.  0Z had it  from Pittsburgh to Albany  So baby steps in the rught direction  Gotta watch the 850mb low which is closed off over Ohio and torches the mid levels to +6 in a hurry. So we have some work to get this to an all snow event  Best guess right now is a good front end thump on LI follow by a quick change over  A mostly snow event in the city with some mixing and an all out snowstorm north and west of the city  A classic 1970's and 80's  winter storm 

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6z. GFS GEFs south .

Rossi

Tighten up your posts ROSSI   :lol:  

 

coastal

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012806/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_22.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012806/gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_22.png

 

I can judge by the morning crew in attendance

this will be a fun day!!!!!   :beer:  Cherry Sarsaparilly

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